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AFTER MARKET UPDATE - FRIDAY, AUGUST 7TH, 2015
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DOW |
-46.37 |
17,373.38 |
-0.27% |
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Volume |
809,705,950 |
-13% |
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Volume |
1,849,871,430 |
-13% |
|
NASDAQ |
-12.90 |
5,043.54 |
-0.26% |
|
Advancers |
1,268 |
41% |
|
Advancers |
1,100 |
39% |
|
S&P 500 |
-5.99 |
2,077.57 |
-0.29% |
|
Decliners |
1,822 |
59% |
|
Decliners |
1,753 |
61% |
|
Russell 2000 |
-8.95 |
1,206.90 |
-0.74% |
|
52 Wk Highs |
29 |
|
|
52 Wk Highs |
24 |
|
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S&P 600 |
-4.01 |
701.21 |
-0.57% |
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52 Wk Lows |
194 |
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52 Wk Lows |
166 |
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Leadership Waned as Major Averages Failed to Rebound
Kenneth J. Gruneisen - Passed the CAN SLIM® Master's Exam
For the week, the Dow slipped 1.8% while the S&P 500 declined 1.2% and the NASDAQ ticked 1.7% lower. Stocks sold off on Friday. The Dow closed down 46 points to 17373. The S&P 500 fell 5 points to 2077 while the NASDAQ was off 12 points to 5043. Volume totals were reported lighter than the prior session totals on the NYSE and on the Nasdaq exchange, a sign that institutional selling had less conviction for the session. Breadth was negative as decliners led advancers by a 3-2 margin on the NYSE and on the Nasdaq exchange. Leadership contracted as there were 9 high-ranked companies from the Leaders List that made new 52-week highs and appeared on the BreakOuts Page, down from the prior session total of 33 stocks. There were gains for 9 of the 16 high-ranked companies currently on the Featured Stocks Page. New 52-week lows again outnumbered new 52-week highs on both the NYSE and the Nasdaq exchange.
Tech weakness this week sent the Nasdaq Composite Index slicing through its 50-day moving average (DMA) line. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also sounded an alarm by violating its 7/27/15 low. Some may still insist that a market "uptrend" is alive but under pressure, however, losses continued to grow on Friday, after the major indices (M criteria) appeared to have earned the label of a "correction" with Thursday's damaging losses.
Disciplined investors always limit losses by selling any stock that falls more than -7% from their purchase price. This is precisely how the fact-based investment system prompts investors to reduce exposure in weak markets, preserving cash until another confirmed rally marked by solid leadership.
Stocks identified as the best matches with the fact-based investment system's guidelines currently are listed to the Featured Stocks Page.
PICTURED: The S&P 500 Index remains perched just above its 200 DMA line ($2,073.24). Below that important long-term average, the recent lows (2,063.52 on 7/27/15 and 2,044.02 on 7/02/15) define important near-term support.
The major averages retreated as investors focused on a non-farm payroll report that was mostly in line with expectations. 215,000 jobs were added in July, while the unemployment rate remained at a seven-year low of 5.3%. A positive revision was also made to June’s tally showing that the U.S. economy added 231,000 workers, 8,000 more than was reported last month.
In earnings, Noodles and Co. (NDLS -16.5%) sank after missing earnings targets. Cablevision (CVC -2.7%) beat profit projections, but finished lower as the selloff in media stocks continued. Stamps.com (STMP +27.7%) surged after dwarfing sales estimates by almost 40%.
Seven out of ten sectors in the S&P 500 declined on the session. Utilities were the best performer, while energy stocks shrugged off a strong start to once again bring up the rear.
The treasury curve flattened on the heels of the non-farm jobs report. The benchmark 10-year note advanced 14/32 to yield 2.173%.
Commodities were mixed. WTI crude slid 1.9% to $43.83/barrel. COMEX gold was 0.2% higher to $1091.80/ounce. The dollar index ebbed 0.3% with weakness against both the yen and the euro.
The Featured Stocks Page shows the most current notes with headline links which direct members into the more detailed letter-by-letter analysis including price/volume graphs annotated by our experts. See the Premium Member Homepage for archives to all prior pay reports.
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Kenneth J. Gruneisen started out as a licensed stockbroker in August 1987, a couple of months prior to the historic stock market crash that took the Dow Jones Industrial Average down -22.6% in a single day. He has published daily fact-based fundamental and technical analysis on high-ranked stocks online for two decades. Through FACTBASEDINVESTING.COM, Kenneth provides educational articles, news, market commentary, and other information regarding proven investment systems that work in good times and bad.
Comments contained in the body of this report are technical opinions only and are not necessarily those of Gruneisen Growth Corp. The material herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable and accurate, however, its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Our firm, employees, and customers may effect transactions, including transactions contrary to any recommendation herein, or have positions in the securities mentioned herein or options with respect thereto. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors and it is not to be deemed an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the purchase or sale of any securities. |
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Retail, Financial, and Commodity-Linked Groups Fell
Kenneth J. Gruneisen - Passed the CAN SLIM® Master's Exam
The Broker/Dealer Index ($XBD -1.11%) and Bank Index ($BKX -0.32%) both suffered losses, and weakness from the Retail Index ($RLX -0.60) also created a drag on the major averages on Friday. The tech sector was mixed, with a loss for the Biotechnology Index ($BTK -1.11%), the Networking Index ($NWX -0.03%) flat, and the Semiconductor Index ($SOX +0.58%) edging higher. The Oil Services Index ($OSX -2.31%) and the Integrated Oil Index ($XOI -1.80%) both fell and the Gold & Silver Index ($XAU -0.35%) also edged lower, rounding out the mostly negative session.
Charts courtesy www.stockcharts.com
PICTURED: The Biotechnology Index ($BTK -1.11%) violated its 50-day moving average (DMA) line with damaging losses.
| Oil Services |
$OSX |
177.56 |
-4.20 |
-2.31% |
-15.80% |
| Integrated Oil |
$XOI |
1,173.40 |
-21.49 |
-1.80% |
-12.96% |
| Semiconductor |
$SOX |
636.82 |
+3.69 |
+0.58% |
-7.29% |
| Networking |
$NWX |
388.24 |
-0.13 |
-0.03% |
+8.46% |
| Broker/Dealer |
$XBD |
190.61 |
-2.14 |
-1.11% |
+3.23% |
| Retail |
$RLX |
1,221.81 |
-7.39 |
-0.60% |
+18.31% |
| Gold & Silver |
$XAU |
45.70 |
-0.16 |
-0.35% |
-33.56% |
| Bank |
$BKX |
78.22 |
-0.25 |
-0.32% |
+5.33% |
| Biotech |
$BTK |
4,060.77 |
-45.63 |
-1.11% |
+18.08% |
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Choppy Consolidation is Not a New Cup-With-Handle Base
Kenneth J. Gruneisen - Passed the CAN SLIM® Master's Exam
Ambarella Corporation (AMBA +$1.70 or +1.50% to $114.98) is consolidating above its 50-day moving average (DMA) line ($109) defining important near-term support. A violation would trigger a technical sell signal. The high-ranked Electronics - Semiconductor firm was last shown in this FSU section on 7/17/15 with an annotated graph under the headline, "Found Support Above 50-Day Moving Average After Sharp Pullback".
Currently perched -11% off its high, there have been no gains backed by great volume conviction to speak of since its abrupt retreat from highs with very heavy volume back on 6/22/15. Its choppy consolidation should not be confused with a new cup-with-handle base pattern. The recent pullback retraced more than 50% of the depth of the "cup" portion of its consolidation, making it a flawed "handle".
It reported earnings +184% on +74% sales revenues for the Apr '15 quarter, continuing to show impressive sales revenues and earnings acceleration in sequential quarterly comparisons. It reported earnings increases of +42%, 84%, and +162% in the Jul, Oct '14 and Jan '15 quarterly comparisons versus the year-ago periods, respectively. Sales revenues during that span rose +25%, +43%, and +62%. Its fundamentals match with the fact-based investment system guidelines with quarterly comparisons showing improvement above the +25% minimum earnings guideline (C criteria).
Keep in mind that its small supply (S criteria) of only 27.6 million shares in the public float can contribute to great price volatility in the event of institutional buying or selling. The number of top-rated funds owning its shares has been on the rise, up from 167 in Jun '14 to 272 in Jun '15, a reassuring indication concerning the I criteria.
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Color Codes Explained :
Y - Better candidates highlighted by our
staff of experts.
G - Previously featured
in past reports as yellow but may no longer be buyable under the
guidelines.
***Last / Change / Volume data in this table is the closing quote data***
Symbol/Exchange
Company Name
Industry Group |
PRICE |
CHANGE
(%Change) |
Day High |
Volume
(% DAV)
(% 50 day avg vol) |
52 Wk Hi
% From Hi |
Featured
Date |
Price
Featured |
Pivot Featured |
|
Max Buy |
GSBC
-
NASDAQ
Great Southern Bancorp
BANKING - Savings and Loans
|
$41.23
|
-0.51
-1.22% |
$41.99
|
21,161
66.13% of 50 DAV
50 DAV is 32,000
|
$42.99
-4.09%
|
4/27/2015
|
$40.94
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PP = $40.54
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|
MB = $42.57
|
Most Recent Note - 8/5/2015 8:36:35 PM
G - Still consolidating above its 50 DMA line ($41.36)defining near-term support. Reported earnings +8% on -11% sales revenues for the Jun '15 quarter, raising fundamental concerns, and its color code was changed to green. Damaging losses leading to violations of the 50 DMA line and prior lows would trigger technical sell signals.
>>> FEATURED STOCK ARTICLE : Finding Support While Consolidating After Sub Par Quarter - 7/30/2015 |
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C
A
S
I |
BOFI
-
NASDAQ
B O F I Holding Inc
BANKING - Savings andamp; Loans
|
$131.40
|
+0.98
0.75% |
$131.70
|
317,561
143.69% of 50 DAV
50 DAV is 221,000
|
$134.79
-2.52%
|
6/10/2015
|
$101.47
|
PP = $97.78
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|
MB = $102.67
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Most Recent Note - 8/6/2015 12:22:10 PM
G - Perched at its all-time high following 6 consecutive gains marked by above average volume. Previously noted with caution - "It may produce more climactic gains, however it is very extended from its prior base. Its recent low ($111.43 on 7/29/15) defines near term support above its 50 DMA line."
>>> FEATURED STOCK ARTICLE : Extended and Perched Near High With Earnings News Due Soon - 7/27/2015 |
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C
A
S
I |
EPAM
-
NYSE
Epam Systems Inc
COMPUTER SOFTWARE and SERVICES - Information Technology Service
|
$70.86
|
+0.85
1.21% |
$71.27
|
251,547
60.04% of 50 DAV
50 DAV is 419,000
|
$76.69
-7.60%
|
5/18/2015
|
$67.42
|
PP = $70.59
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|
MB = $74.12
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Most Recent Note - 8/5/2015 12:42:33 PM
G - Finding prompt support and rebounding from earlier lows after violating its 50 DMA line with a damaging loss today triggering a worrisome technical sell signal. Color code was changed to green. Reported earnings +21% on +25% sales revenues for the Jun '15 quarter, below the +25% minimum guideline (C criteria), raising fundamental concerns.
>>> FEATURED STOCK ARTICLE : Volume Totals Cooling While Consolidating Near Highs - 7/23/2015 |
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C
A
S
I |
AHS
-
NYSE
A M N Healthcare Svcs
DIVERSIFIED SERVICES - Staffing and Outsourcing Service
|
$34.20
|
+0.38
1.12% |
$34.21
|
508,011
75.71% of 50 DAV
50 DAV is 671,000
|
$36.34
-5.89%
|
8/5/2015
|
$34.50
|
PP = $32.53
|
|
MB = $34.16
|
Most Recent Note - 8/5/2015 7:07:00 PM
Y - Finished near its "max buy" level after highlighted in yellow with new pivot point based on its 7/01/15 high plus 10 cents in the earlier mid-day report (read here). Hit a new 52-week high with a "breakaway gap" today, rallying with heavy volume from a 5-week flat base during which it found support at its 50 DMA line. Reported earnings +80% on +40% sales revenues for the Jun '15 quarter, its 3rd consecutive quarterly comparison with earnings above the +25% minimum guideline (C criteria), helping it better match the fact-based investment system's winning models. See the latest FSU analysis for additional details and an annotated graph.
>>> FEATURED STOCK ARTICLE : Gap Up Gain Triggered Technical Buy Signal Following Earnings - 8/5/2015 |
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C
A
S
I |
ILMN
-
NASDAQ
Illumina Inc
DRUGS - Biotechnology
|
$210.50
|
+0.84
0.40% |
$211.71
|
1,211,430
86.16% of 50 DAV
50 DAV is 1,406,000
|
$242.37
-13.15%
|
6/8/2015
|
$209.97
|
PP = $213.43
|
|
MB = $224.10
|
Most Recent Note - 8/6/2015 6:25:16 PM
G - Color code is changed to green after slumping below its 50 DMA line with a big loss on higher volume. Damaging losses below recent lows ($207) would raise concerns and trigger a more worrisome technical sell signal.
>>> FEATURED STOCK ARTICLE : Support Found After Abrupt Pullback Following Earnings News - 7/24/2015 |
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C
A
S
I |
Symbol/Exchange
Company Name
Industry Group |
PRICE |
CHANGE
(%Change) |
Day High |
Volume
(% DAV)
(% 50 day avg vol) |
52 Wk Hi
% From Hi |
Featured
Date |
Price
Featured |
Pivot Featured |
|
Max Buy |
JAZZ
-
NASDAQ
Jazz Pharmaceuticals Plc
DRUGS - Biotechnology
|
$181.79
|
-2.45
-1.33% |
$184.66
|
480,822
114.21% of 50 DAV
50 DAV is 421,000
|
$194.73
-6.65%
|
7/29/2015
|
$190.13
|
PP = $191.11
|
|
MB = $200.67
|
Most Recent Note - 8/6/2015 1:41:35 PM
G - Pulling back today for a big loss with above average volume. Color code is changed to green due to fundamental concerns. Reported earnings +19% on +15% sales revenues for the Jun '15 quarter, below the +25% minimum earnings guideline (C criteria). It stalled after highlighted in yellow with pivot point cited based on its 4/27/15 high plus 10 cents in the 7/29/15 mid-day report (read here).
>>> FEATURED STOCK ARTICLE : No Resistance Due to Overhead Supply For Drug Firm - 7/29/2015 |
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C
A
S
I |
VRX
-
NYSE
Valeant Pharmaceuticals
DRUGS - Drug Manufacturers - Other
|
$247.79
|
-0.61
-0.25% |
$248.10
|
2,158,325
129.63% of 50 DAV
50 DAV is 1,665,000
|
$263.81
-6.07%
|
7/14/2015
|
$236.75
|
PP = $246.11
|
|
MB = $258.42
|
Most Recent Note - 8/6/2015 1:31:17 PM
Y - Pulling back today with higher volume, a sign of distributional pressure after wedging higher with recent gains lacking great volume conviction. Prior highs in the $246 area define initial support above the 50 DMA line. Its 7/23/15 gap up above the pivot point triggered a new (or add-on) technical buy signal.
>>> FEATURED STOCK ARTICLE : Holding Ground Following Latest Technical Breakout - 8/3/2015 |
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C
A
S
I |
USNA
-
NYSE
U S A N A Health Science
DRUGS - Drug Related Products
|
$159.97
|
+3.13
2.00% |
$160.94
|
134,690
104.41% of 50 DAV
50 DAV is 129,000
|
$176.88
-9.56%
|
8/5/2015
|
$157.22
|
PP = $145.15
|
|
MB = $152.41
|
Most Recent Note - 8/6/2015 6:18:59 PM
G - Abruptly pulled back and finished near the session low today with a big loss on heavy volume. Prior highs in the $145 area define initial support to watch. Quickly got very extended after highlighted in yellow with a pivot point based on its 7/02/15 high plus 10 cents in the 8/05/15 mid-day report (read here). A "breakaway gap" is one noted exception where buying more than +5% above a prior high is allowed under the fact-based investment system. Risk increases the further one chases a stock above prior highs. See the latest FSU analysis for more details and a new annotated graph.
>>> FEATURED STOCK ARTICLE : Abrupt Retreat Following Breakout for Stock With Small Supply - 8/6/2015 |
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C
A
S
I |
AMBA
-
NASDAQ
Ambarella Inc
ELECTRONICS - Semiconductor - Specialized
|
$114.98
|
+1.70
1.50% |
$114.99
|
1,761,759
40.12% of 50 DAV
50 DAV is 4,391,000
|
$129.19
-11.00%
|
5/1/2015
|
$75.99
|
PP = $77.49
|
|
MB = $81.36
|
Most Recent Note - 8/7/2015 5:55:21 PM
G - Consolidating above its 50 DMA line ($109) defining near-term support. A violation would trigger a technical sell signal. See the latest FSU analysis for more details and a new annotated graph.
>>> FEATURED STOCK ARTICLE : Choppy Consolidation is Not a New Cup-With-Handle Base - 8/7/2015 |
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C
A
S
I |
ACHC
-
NASDAQ
Acadia Healthcare Inc
HEALTH SERVICES - Specialized Health Services
|
$81.78
|
-1.06
-1.28% |
$82.98
|
484,581
63.93% of 50 DAV
50 DAV is 758,000
|
$85.62
-4.48%
|
5/27/2015
|
$73.90
|
PP = $74.19
|
|
MB = $77.90
|
Most Recent Note - 8/5/2015 12:13:21 PM
G - Considerable volume-driven gain today for a new high, rallying from a brief consolidation, not a sound base pattern of sufficient length. Reported strong sales and earnings increases with acceleration again for Jun '15 quarter. Its 50 DMA line and recent lows define important support. See the latest FSU analysis for additional details and an annotated graph.
>>> FEATURED STOCK ARTICLE : Pullback Followed Another Strong Quarter Reported With Acceleration - 8/4/2015 |
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C
A
S
I |
Symbol/Exchange
Company Name
Industry Group |
PRICE |
CHANGE
(%Change) |
Day High |
Volume
(% DAV)
(% 50 day avg vol) |
52 Wk Hi
% From Hi |
Featured
Date |
Price
Featured |
Pivot Featured |
|
Max Buy |
APOG
-
NASDAQ
Apogee Enterprises
MATERIALS and CONSTRUCTION - General Building Materials
|
$52.88
|
-0.34
-0.64% |
$53.50
|
166,181
51.61% of 50 DAV
50 DAV is 322,000
|
$61.05
-13.38%
|
4/9/2015
|
$49.58
|
PP = $48.13
|
|
MB = $50.54
|
Most Recent Note - 8/6/2015 6:21:41 PM
G - Color code is changed to green while quietly slumping below its 50 DMA line. Damaging losses below recent low ($50.07 on 7/07/15) would raise greater concerns and trigger a worrisome technical sell signal.
>>> FEATURED STOCK ARTICLE : Rebound Above 50-Day Moving Average Line - 7/31/2015 |
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C
A
S
I |
JLL
-
NYSE
Jones Lang Lasalle Inc
REAL ESTATE - Property Management/Developmen
|
$177.42
|
+0.68
0.38% |
$177.89
|
186,617
58.14% of 50 DAV
50 DAV is 321,000
|
$179.83
-1.34%
|
6/4/2015
|
$172.34
|
PP = $174.93
|
|
MB = $183.68
|
Most Recent Note - 8/5/2015 8:35:17 PM
Y - Posted a small gain with below average volume today for a best ever close. Found encouraging support at its 50 DMA line, however, recent gains above the pivot point lacked the minimum +40% above average volume necessary to trigger a new (or add-on) technical buy signal.
>>> FEATURED STOCK ARTICLE : Recent Gains Lacked Volume Conviction; Earnings Report Soon Expected - 7/22/2015 |
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C
A
S
I |
RH
-
NYSE
Restoration Hardware Hld
RETAIL - Home Furnishing Stores
|
$99.56
|
-1.31
-1.30% |
$101.46
|
612,422
81.12% of 50 DAV
50 DAV is 755,000
|
$105.98
-6.06%
|
7/28/2015
|
$102.40
|
PP = $102.10
|
|
MB = $107.21
|
Most Recent Note - 8/6/2015 1:38:10 PM
Y - Pulling back near near prior highs in the $100 area defining initial support. Its 50 DMA line ($98.04) defines the next important support level to watch.
>>> FEATURED STOCK ARTICLE : Fundamental and Technical Action Improved Outlook - 7/28/2015 |
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C
A
S
I |
ULTA
-
NASDAQ
Ulta Salon Cosm & Frag
SPECIALTY RETAIL - Specialty Retail, Other
|
$165.61
|
+0.81
0.49% |
$165.97
|
621,748
78.01% of 50 DAV
50 DAV is 797,000
|
$171.21
-3.27%
|
5/29/2015
|
$155.03
|
PP = $159.95
|
|
MB = $167.95
|
Most Recent Note - 8/3/2015 5:53:30 PM
Y - Consolidating well above prior highs in the $159 area defining initial support to watch on pullbacks.
>>> FEATURED STOCK ARTICLE : Near "Max Buy" Level, But Recent Gains Lacked Great Volume Conviction - 7/20/2015 |
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C
A
S
I |
LXFT
-
NYSE
Luxoft Holding Inc Cl A
Comp Sftwr-Spec Enterprs
|
$59.86
|
-0.43
-0.71% |
$60.36
|
140,921
57.28% of 50 DAV
50 DAV is 246,000
|
$63.56
-5.82%
|
5/26/2015
|
$51.90
|
PP = $57.40
|
|
MB = $60.27
|
Most Recent Note - 8/3/2015 5:48:54 PM
G - Trading above its "max buy" level and its color code is changed to green. Its 50 DMA line ($58.07)defines near term support above prior highs in the $57 area. Subsequent violations would trigger technical sell signals.
>>> FEATURED STOCK ARTICLE : Extended From Base After Wedging Higher - 7/16/2015 |
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C
A
S
I |
Symbol/Exchange
Company Name
Industry Group |
PRICE |
CHANGE
(%Change) |
Day High |
Volume
(% DAV)
(% 50 day avg vol) |
52 Wk Hi
% From Hi |
Featured
Date |
Price
Featured |
Pivot Featured |
|
Max Buy |
PANW
-
NYSE
Palo Alto Networks
Computer Sftwr-Security
|
$175.52
|
+1.03
0.59% |
$176.30
|
2,453,973
163.27% of 50 DAV
50 DAV is 1,503,000
|
$200.55
-12.48%
|
3/27/2015
|
$146.44
|
PP = $149.45
|
|
MB = $156.92
|
Most Recent Note - 8/6/2015 1:36:20 PM
G - Undercutting its 50 DMA line with a damaging loss on higher volume today raising concerns. Subsequent losses below its prior low ($167.82 on 7/07/15) would trigger a more worrisome technical sell signal.
>>> FEATURED STOCK ARTICLE : Wedging to New Highs After Brief Consolidation - 7/21/2015 |
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C
A
S
I |
|
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