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AFTER MARKET UPDATE - FRIDAY, JULY 24TH, 2015
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DOW |
-163.39 |
17,568.53 |
-0.92% |
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Volume |
871,836,350 |
+4% |
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Volume |
1,850,159,660 |
+0% |
NASDAQ |
-57.78 |
5,088.63 |
-1.12% |
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Advancers |
838 |
27% |
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Advancers |
673 |
23% |
S&P 500 |
-22.50 |
2,079.65 |
-1.07% |
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Decliners |
2,274 |
73% |
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Decliners |
2,225 |
77% |
Russell 2000 |
-18.98 |
1,225.99 |
-1.52% |
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52 Wk Highs |
37 |
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52 Wk Highs |
52 |
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S&P 600 |
-9.12 |
701.72 |
-1.28% |
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52 Wk Lows |
432 |
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52 Wk Lows |
242 |
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Major Averages Encountered Pressure This Week
Kenneth J. Gruneisen - Passed the CAN SLIM® Master's Exam
For the week, the Dow declined 2.9% while the S&P 500 ebbed 2.3% and the NASDAQ slid 2.5%. Stocks moved lower on Friday. The Dow was down 163 points to 17568. The S&P 500 finished off 22 points to 2079. The NASDAQ fell 57 points to 5088. Volume totals were reported mixed, higher than the prior session total on the NYSE and lighter on the Nasdaq exchange. Breadth was negative as decliners led advancers by more than a 2-1 margin on the NYSE and on the Nasdaq exchange. There were 18 high-ranked companies from the Leaders List that made new 52-week highs and appeared on the BreakOuts Page, down from the prior session total of 66 stocks. The total number of new 52-week lows outnumbered new 52-week highs on the NYSE and on the Nasdaq exchange. There were gains for only 3 of the 12 high-ranked companies currently on the Featured Stocks Page.
The Dow and S&P 500 index both violated their respecitve 50-day moving average (DMA) lines while major indices slid this week. Waning leadership (fewer stocks hitting new highs) also was a factor while the market rally (M criteria) endured distributional pressure.
Disciplined investors know to buy only the strongest stocks meeting all of the key fundamental and technical criteria. New matches with the fact-based investment system's strict guidelines will be added to the Featured Stocks Page as market action dictates.
PICTURED: The Dow Jones Industrial Average violated its 50-day and 200-day moving average (DMA) lines during a damaging 4-session losing streak. Its MACD indicator also turned negative.
The major averages retreated as commodities slumped and investors weighed a barrage of earnings reports. In economic news, a report showed new home sales fell 6.8% in June, missing analyst’s expectations of a small increase. A separate release showed preliminary U.S. manufacturing numbers for June were slightly better than expected.
In earnings, Amazon (AMZN +9.80%) surged after posting a surprising profit and providing upbeat guidance. American Airlines (AAL -6.99%) declined despite beating on earnings and announcing an additional $2 billion in stock buybacks. Visa (V +4.25%) jumped after exceeding revenue estimates and announcing the company would engage in talks to rejoin former subsidiary Visa Europe.
Nine of the ten sectors in the S&P 500 closed lower, with utilities posting the lone advance. Healthcare stocks lagged, headlined by Biogen (BIIB -22.08%) after missing revenue projections.
Treasuries were mildly firmer along the curve. The benchmark 10-year gained 2/32 to yield 2.259%.
Commodities tumbled lower as Chinese demand continues to wane. WTI crude finished 0.7% lower to $48.12/barrel. Gold snapped an 11-day losing streak, finishing up 0.4% to $1098.20/ounce. The dollar index appreciated 0.2%, with mild strength against the yen and euro.
The Featured Stocks Page shows the most current notes with headline links which direct members into the more detailed letter-by-letter analysis including price/volume graphs annotated by our experts. See the Premium Member Homepage for archives to all prior pay reports.
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Kenneth J. Gruneisen started out as a licensed stockbroker in August 1987, a couple of months prior to the historic stock market crash that took the Dow Jones Industrial Average down -22.6% in a single day. He has published daily fact-based fundamental and technical analysis on high-ranked stocks online for two decades. Through FACTBASEDINVESTING.COM, Kenneth provides educational articles, news, market commentary, and other information regarding proven investment systems that work in good times and bad.
Comments contained in the body of this report are technical opinions only and are not necessarily those of Gruneisen Growth Corp. The material herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable and accurate, however, its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Our firm, employees, and customers may effect transactions, including transactions contrary to any recommendation herein, or have positions in the securities mentioned herein or options with respect thereto. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors and it is not to be deemed an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the purchase or sale of any securities. |
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Retail Index Provides Reassuring Signs of US Consumer Strength
Kenneth J. Gruneisen - Passed the CAN SLIM® Master's Exam
The Broker/Dealer Index ($XBD -1.40%) and the Bank Index ($BKX -1.68%) both weighed on the major averages as they fell on Friday, meanwhile the Retail Index ($RLX +0.88%) was a positive influence. The Networking Index ($NWX +1.40%) posted a solid gain, meanwhile the Biotechnology Index ($BTK -3.46%) led the tech sector's retreat and the Semiconductor Index ($SOX -1.99%) took another bad hit. Energy-related shares slumped badly again as the Oil Services Index ($OSX -2.88%) and Integrated Oil Index ($XOI -1.88%) both finished lower. The Gold & Silver Index ($XAU +2.59%) bounced back from new multi-year lows
Charts courtesy www.stockcharts.com
PICTURED: The Retail Index ($RLX +0.88%) is blasting to new record highs. In recent months it found support near its 50-day moving average (DMA) line while consolidating. Regular readers know that its sharp rally into new record high territory has been noted as a reassuring sign concerning the broader marklet outlook, since consumer spending accounts for about 2/3 of the US economy.
Oil Services |
$OSX |
176.54 |
-5.24 |
-2.88% |
-16.28% |
Integrated Oil |
$XOI |
1,202.68 |
-23.00 |
-1.88% |
-10.79% |
Semiconductor |
$SOX |
642.48 |
-13.03 |
-1.99% |
-6.46% |
Networking |
$NWX |
384.52 |
+5.29 |
+1.40% |
+7.42% |
Broker/Dealer |
$XBD |
196.15 |
-2.79 |
-1.40% |
+6.24% |
Retail |
$RLX |
1,202.68 |
+10.48 |
+0.88% |
+16.46% |
Gold & Silver |
$XAU |
48.52 |
+1.23 |
+2.60% |
-29.46% |
Bank |
$BKX |
78.41 |
-1.34 |
-1.68% |
+5.59% |
Biotech |
$BTK |
4,221.90 |
-151.11 |
-3.46% |
+22.76% |
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Support Found After Abrupt Pullback Following Earnings News
Kenneth J. Gruneisen - Passed the CAN SLIM® Master's Exam
Illumina Inc (ILMN +$1.16 or +0.53% to $221.10) pulled back after it reported earnings +40% on +21% sales revenues for the Jun '15 quarter. Fundamentals remain strong, with earnings above the +25% minimum guideline (C criteria). However, in sequential quarterly comparisons the increases in sales revenues and earnings have shown deceleration in its growth rate. Its color code was changed to yellow after finding support near its 50-day moving average DMA line ($215.73) and prior highs in the $213 area. More damaging losses leading to violations would trigger technical sell signals.
The Medical - Research Equipment/Services firm wedged to new highs with gains lacking great volume conviction after last shown in this FSU section on 7/08/15 with am annotated graph under the headline, "Still Above Near-Term Support After Pullback on Higher Volume". Its Relative Strength rating, now 87, remains above the 80+ minimum guideline for buy candidates. But resistance remains due to overhead supply up through the $242 level which may hinder its upward price progress for the near term.
It reported earnings +33%, +71%, +93%, and +72% in the Jun, Sep, Dec '14 and Mar '15 quarters, respectively, versus the year ago periods. Sales revenues increases were +29%, +35%, +32%, and +28% during that span.Its annual earnings (A criteria) growth history has improved steadily since a downturn in FY '09.
The number of top-rated funds owning its shares rose from 877 in Dec '13 to 1,179 in Jun '15, a reassuring sign concerning the I criteria. Its current Up/Down Volume Ratio of 1.2 is an unbiased indication its shares have been under accumulation over the past 50 days.
Its abrupt pullback prompted a member inquiry and response which was included in the 7/23/15 After Market Report - see Ken's Mail Bag (read here). The response covered valid "Secondary Buy Points" they teach in the Master's Class. Under the fact-based investment system, if an earlier technical breakout from a valid base was missed, the stock may be bought up to +5% above the latest highs following its first successful pullback and test of the 10-week moving average (WMA) - which is similar to the 50-day average, but computed weekly the actual "average" is a slightly different number.
Always follow the loss-limiting sell rules if any position ever falls more than -7% from your purchase price. The higher from support it is bought, the greater the chances that an ordinary pullback might trigger the loss limiting sell rule. The weekly graph below illustrates how, in this case, there is a great deal of room from its 10-week moving average ($217.31) up to +5% above the latest high ($242.37 X 1.05 = $254.49).
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Color Codes Explained :
Y - Better candidates highlighted by our
staff of experts. G - Previously featured
in past reports as yellow but may no longer be buyable under the
guidelines.
***Last / Change / Volume data in this table is the closing quote data***
Symbol/Exchange
Company Name
Industry Group |
PRICE |
CHANGE (%Change) |
Day High |
Volume (% DAV) (% 50 day avg vol) |
52 Wk Hi % From Hi |
Featured Date |
Price Featured |
Pivot Featured |
Max Buy |
GSBC
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NASDAQ
Great Southern Bancorp
BANKING - Savings and Loans
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$41.75
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-0.33
-0.78% |
$42.30
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36,890 115.28% of 50 DAV
50 DAV is 32,000
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$42.99 -2.88%
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4/27/2015
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$40.94
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PP = $40.54
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MB = $42.57
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Most Recent Note - 7/21/2015 5:47:53 PM
Y - Ended near the session low with a loss today on higher volume indicative of distributional pressure Found support recently near prior highs in the $41 area and its 50 DMA line. Damaging losses leading to violations would trigger technical sell signals.
>>> FEATURED STOCK ARTICLE : Finding Support Near Prior Highs and 50-Day Moving Average - 7/9/2015 |
View all notes |
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C
A
S
I |
BOFI
-
NASDAQ
B O F I Holding Inc
BANKING - Savings andamp; Loans
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$115.40
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-1.58
-1.35% |
$117.22
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152,901 83.10% of 50 DAV
50 DAV is 184,000
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$119.83 -3.70%
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6/10/2015
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$101.47
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PP = $97.78
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MB = $102.67
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Most Recent Note - 7/20/2015 12:05:54 PM
G - Hitting yet another new high with today's 4th consecutive gain, getting very extended from its prior base. Its 50 DMA line ($100.94) and prior highs near $97 define important support to watch on pullbacks.
>>> FEATURED STOCK ARTICLE : Hitting New Highs and Getting More Extended From a Sound Base - 7/10/2015 |
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C
A
S
I |
EPAM
-
NYSE
Epam Systems Inc
COMPUTER SOFTWARE and SERVICES - Information Technology Service
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$73.82
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-0.09
-0.12% |
$74.99
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183,265 47.73% of 50 DAV
50 DAV is 384,000
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$75.89 -2.73%
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5/18/2015
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$67.42
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PP = $70.59
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MB = $74.12
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Most Recent Note - 7/23/2015 6:32:03 PM
Y - Still stubbornly holding its ground perched near its all-time high with volume totals cooling, an indication few are headed for the exit. Its 50 DMA line defines support where a violation would trigger a technical sell signal. Due to report earnings on 08/04/15, and volume and volatility often increase near earnings news. See the latest FSU analysis for more details and new annotated graph.
>>> FEATURED STOCK ARTICLE : Volume Totals Cooling While Consolidating Near Highs - 7/23/2015 |
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C
A
S
I |
ILMN
-
NASDAQ
Illumina Inc
DRUGS - Biotechnology
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$221.10
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+1.16
0.53% |
$223.24
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1,830,786 128.30% of 50 DAV
50 DAV is 1,427,000
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$242.37 -8.78%
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6/8/2015
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$209.97
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PP = $213.43
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MB = $224.10
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Most Recent Note - 7/24/2015 5:53:18 PM
Y - Reported earnings +40% on +21% sales revenues for the Jun '15 quarter. Color code was changed to yellow after finding support near prior highs in the $213 area. See the latest FSU analysis for more details with an annotated weekly graph and explanation of valid "Secondary Buy Points".
>>> FEATURED STOCK ARTICLE : Support Found After Abrupt Pullback Following Earnings News - 7/24/2015 |
View all notes |
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C
A
S
I |
VRX
-
NYSE
Valeant Pharmaceuticals
DRUGS - Drug Manufacturers - Other
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$251.92
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-1.92
-0.76% |
$259.57
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2,257,423 141.18% of 50 DAV
50 DAV is 1,599,000
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$254.46 -1.00%
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7/14/2015
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$236.75
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PP = $246.11
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MB = $258.42
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Most Recent Note - 7/23/2015 1:11:17 PM
Y - Reported earnings +34% on +34% sales revenues for the Jun '15 quarter. Volume and volatility often increase near earnings news. It gapped up above the pivot point and hit a new 52-week high with above average volume behind its gain triggering a new (or add-on) technical buy signal. The 50 DMA line ($231) and recent low ($219.56 on 6/29/15) define near-term support levels to watch.
>>> FEATURED STOCK ARTICLE : New Base Has Formed and Earnings News is Due Soon - 7/14/2015 |
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C
A
S
I |
Symbol/Exchange
Company Name
Industry Group |
PRICE |
CHANGE (%Change) |
Day High |
Volume (% DAV) (% 50 day avg vol) |
52 Wk Hi % From Hi |
Featured Date |
Price Featured |
Pivot Featured |
Max Buy |
AMBA
-
NASDAQ
Ambarella Inc
ELECTRONICS - Semiconductor - Specialized
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$124.23
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+1.24
1.01% |
$128.50
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4,081,651 98.50% of 50 DAV
50 DAV is 4,144,000
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$129.19 -3.84%
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5/1/2015
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$75.99
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PP = $77.49
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MB = $81.36
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Most Recent Note - 7/22/2015 4:03:26 PM
G - Rallied to its second-best close ever with today's 5th consecutive gain. The 50 DMA line and recent low ($93.06 on 6/22/15) define near-term support where violations would trigger technical sell signals.
>>> FEATURED STOCK ARTICLE : Found Support Above 50-Day Moving Average After Sharp Pullback - 7/17/2015 |
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C
A
S
I |
ACHC
-
NASDAQ
Acadia Healthcare Inc
HEALTH SERVICES - Specialized Health Services
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$79.32
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-0.38
-0.48% |
$80.45
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312,800 41.27% of 50 DAV
50 DAV is 758,000
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$81.76 -2.98%
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5/27/2015
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$73.90
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PP = $74.19
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MB = $77.90
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Most Recent Note - 7/22/2015 4:05:01 PM
G - Pulled back today for a 4th consecutive small loss. Still holding its ground above its "max buy" level with volume-totals cooling, an indication few are headed for the exit. Prior highs in the $74-75 area define near-term support to watch above its 50 DMA line ($75.15).
>>> FEATURED STOCK ARTICLE : Extended From Prior Base and Perched at High - 7/15/2015 |
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C
A
S
I |
APOG
-
NASDAQ
Apogee Enterprises
MATERIALS and CONSTRUCTION - General Building Materials
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$54.21
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-1.16
-2.09% |
$55.42
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188,640 59.32% of 50 DAV
50 DAV is 318,000
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$61.05 -11.20%
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4/9/2015
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$49.58
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PP = $48.13
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MB = $50.54
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Most Recent Note - 7/22/2015 4:01:02 PM
Y - Color code is changed to yellow after rebounding above its 50 DMA line with today's volume-driven gain helping its outlook improve. Damaging losses below recent low ($50.07 on 7/07/15) would raise greater concerns.
>>> FEATURED STOCK ARTICLE : Sputtering After Damaging 50-Day Moving Average Violation - 7/13/2015 |
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C
A
S
I |
JLL
-
NYSE
Jones Lang Lasalle Inc
REAL ESTATE - Property Management/Developmen
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$171.52
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-0.53
-0.31% |
$173.84
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226,823 66.13% of 50 DAV
50 DAV is 343,000
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$177.11 -3.16%
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6/4/2015
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$172.34
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PP = $174.93
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MB = $183.68
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Most Recent Note - 7/22/2015 6:32:26 PM
Y - Above support at its 50 DMA line. Recent gains above the pivot point lacked the minimum +40% above average volume necessary to trigger a new (or add-on) technical buy signal. See the latest FSU analysis for additional details and a new annotated graph.
>>> FEATURED STOCK ARTICLE : Recent Gains Lacked Volume Conviction; Earnings Report Soon Expected - 7/22/2015 |
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C
A
S
I |
ULTA
-
NASDAQ
Ulta Salon Cosm & Frag
SPECIALTY RETAIL - Specialty Retail, Other
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$169.54
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+0.32
0.19% |
$170.36
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501,040 60.51% of 50 DAV
50 DAV is 828,000
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$171.21 -0.98%
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5/29/2015
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$155.03
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PP = $159.95
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MB = $167.95
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Most Recent Note - 7/20/2015 5:54:47 PM
G - Color code is changed to green while perched near its "max buy" level after recent gains lacking volume conviction. Prior highs near $159 define initial support to watch on pullbacks. See the latest FSU analysis for more details and a new annotated graph.
>>> FEATURED STOCK ARTICLE : Near "Max Buy" Level, But Recent Gains Lacked Great Volume Conviction - 7/20/2015 |
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C
A
S
I |
Symbol/Exchange
Company Name
Industry Group |
PRICE |
CHANGE (%Change) |
Day High |
Volume (% DAV) (% 50 day avg vol) |
52 Wk Hi % From Hi |
Featured Date |
Price Featured |
Pivot Featured |
Max Buy |
LXFT
-
NYSE
Luxoft Holding Inc Cl A
Comp Sftwr-Spec Enterprs
|
$62.91
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-0.42
-0.66% |
$63.28
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250,122 100.86% of 50 DAV
50 DAV is 248,000
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$63.56 -1.02%
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5/26/2015
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$51.90
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PP = $57.40
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MB = $60.27
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Most Recent Note - 7/23/2015 6:39:32 PM
G - Posted a volume-driven gain for a new all-time high. Prior highs define near-term support above its 50 DMA line. Subsequent violations would trigger technical sell signals.
>>> FEATURED STOCK ARTICLE : Extended From Base After Wedging Higher - 7/16/2015 |
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C
A
S
I |
PANW
-
NYSE
Palo Alto Networks
Computer Sftwr-Security
|
$196.88
|
-0.21
-0.11% |
$200.55
|
1,154,135 77.98% of 50 DAV
50 DAV is 1,480,000
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$200.10 -1.61%
|
3/27/2015
|
$146.44
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PP = $149.45
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MB = $156.92
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Most Recent Note - 7/23/2015 6:34:35 PM
G - Hit a new all-time high with today's 11th gain in the span of 12 sessions. Extended from any sound base. Recent lows and its 50 DMA line define the nearest chart support to watch.
>>> FEATURED STOCK ARTICLE : Wedging to New Highs After Brief Consolidation - 7/21/2015 |
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C
A
S
I |
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THESE ARE NOT BUY RECOMMENDATIONS!
Comments contained in the body of this report are technical
opinions only. The material herein has been obtained
from sources believed to be reliable and accurate, however,
its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed.
This site is not an investment advisor, hence it does
not endorse or recommend any securities or other investments.
Any recommendation contained in this report may not
be suitable for all investors and it is not to be deemed
an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to
the purchase or sale of any securities. All trademarks,
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are the property of their respective owners, and are
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