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AFTER MARKET UPDATE - THURSDAY, AUGUST 6TH, 2015
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DOW |
-120.72 |
17,419.75 |
-0.69% |
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Volume |
931,805,180 |
+5% |
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Volume |
2,121,739,160 |
+12% |
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NASDAQ |
-83.50 |
5,056.44 |
-1.62% |
|
Advancers |
1,244 |
40% |
|
Advancers |
814 |
28% |
|
S&P 500 |
-16.28 |
2,083.56 |
-0.78% |
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Decliners |
1,844 |
60% |
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Decliners |
2,059 |
72% |
|
Russell 2000 |
-15.91 |
1,215.85 |
-1.29% |
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52 Wk Highs |
51 |
|
|
52 Wk Highs |
63 |
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S&P 600 |
-6.07 |
705.22 |
-0.85% |
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52 Wk Lows |
350 |
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52 Wk Lows |
191 |
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Nasdaq Violated 50-Day Average as Market Weakness Hurt Outlook
Kenneth J. Gruneisen - Passed the CAN SLIM® Master's Exam
Stocks sold off on Thursday. The Dow was off 120 points to 17419. The S&P 500 closed down 16 points to 2083 while the NASDAQ fell 83 points to 5056. Volume totals were reported higher than the prior session totals on the NYSE and on the Nasdaq exchange, a sign of more worrisome institutional selling conviction. Breadth was negative as decliners led advancers by a 3-2 margin on the NYSE and by a 5-2 margin on the Nasdaq exchange. Leadership contracted as there were 33 high-ranked companies from the Leaders List that made new 52-week highs and appeared on the BreakOuts Page, down from the prior session total of 98 stocks. There were losses for all 16 high-ranked companies currently on the Featured Stocks Page, a disproportionately negative bias versus the broader market. New 52-week lows swelled and again outnumbered new 52-week highs on both the NYSE and the Nasdaq exchange.
The major indices (M criteria) appear to have again earned the label of a "correction" as of Thursday's damaging losses. Tech weakness sent the Nasdaq Composite Index slicing through its 50-day moving average (DMA) line. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average sounded an alarm by violating its 7/27/15 low. The S&P 500 Index also fell, yet it remains perched above its 200 DMA line ($2,072.56) and above recent lows (2,063.52 on 7/27/15 and 2,044.02 on 7/02/15) defining important near-term support below that important long-term average.
Disciplined investors always limit losses by selling any stock that falls more than -7% from their purchase price. This is precisely how the fact-based investment system prompts investors to reduce exposure in weak markets, preserving cash until another confirmed rally marked by solid leadership.
Stocks singled out through our expert analysis as the best matches with the fact-based investment system's guidelines currently are listed to the Featured Stocks Page.
Charts courtesy www.stockcharts.com
PICTURED: The Nasdaq Composite Index violated its 50-day moving average (DMA) line with a damaging loss on higher volume. Its MACD inddicator turned more bearish.
The major averages retreated as investors focused on disappointing earnings reports from media companies. In economic news, new jobless claims were in line with expectations at 270,000 for the week.
Eight of the ten sectors in the S&P 500 moved lower. Consumer discretionary stocks lagged on weakness from media stocks. Viacom (VIA -13.35%) sank after disappointing revenue and muted expectations from management. Twenty-First Century Fox (FOX -6.74%) fell on lower-than-expected 2016 guidance. On the bright side, CBS Corp. (CBS +3.61%) jumped after beating on the bottom line.
Elsewhere in earnings, Fitbit (FIT -13.63%) slipped despite seeing sales more than triple in their first quarterly report as a public company. Keurig Green Mountain (GMCR -29.75%) plunged after reporting a decline in brewer sales for the first time. Tesla (TSLA -8.88%) fell after the company reduced guidance for the number of vehicles to be delivered next year.
Treasuries strengthened along the curve. The benchmark 10-year note gained 14/32 to yield 2.22%.
Commodities were mixed as energy prices continued to tumble. WTI crude fell 0.9% to $44.74/barrel. COMEX gold saw a modest 0.3% advance to $1089.30/ounce. The dollar index sold off late in the session to finish 0.2% lower.
The Featured Stocks Page shows the most current notes with headline links which direct members into the more detailed letter-by-letter analysis including price/volume graphs annotated by our experts. See the Premium Member Homepage for archives to all prior pay reports.
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Kenneth J. Gruneisen started out as a licensed stockbroker in August 1987, a couple of months prior to the historic stock market crash that took the Dow Jones Industrial Average down -22.6% in a single day. He has published daily fact-based fundamental and technical analysis on high-ranked stocks online for two decades. Through FACTBASEDINVESTING.COM, Kenneth provides educational articles, news, market commentary, and other information regarding proven investment systems that work in good times and bad.
Comments contained in the body of this report are technical opinions only and are not necessarily those of Gruneisen Growth Corp. The material herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable and accurate, however, its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Our firm, employees, and customers may effect transactions, including transactions contrary to any recommendation herein, or have positions in the securities mentioned herein or options with respect thereto. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors and it is not to be deemed an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the purchase or sale of any securities. |
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Tech and Retail Fell While Commodity-Linked Groups Rose
Kenneth J. Gruneisen - Passed the CAN SLIM® Master's Exam
The tech sector led the market's retreat with a big loss from the Biotechnology Index ($BTK -4.23%) followed by the Semiconductor Index ($SOX -1.78%) and the Networking Index ($NWX -1.31%). The Retail Index ($RLX -1.13%) also created a drag on the major indices, meanwhile the Broker/Dealer Index ($XBD -0.22%) and Bank Index ($BKX -0.41%) both edged lower. Commodity-linked groups led Thursday's action as the Oil Services Index ($OSX +3.25%) and the Integrated Oil Index ($XOI +1.36%) both bounced.
PICTURED: The Gold & Silver Index ($XAU +3.03%) was a standout as it halted its slide with a solid gain.
| Oil Services |
$OSX |
181.76 |
+5.73 |
+3.26% |
-13.80% |
| Integrated Oil |
$XOI |
1,194.89 |
+16.00 |
+1.36% |
-11.37% |
| Semiconductor |
$SOX |
633.13 |
-11.49 |
-1.78% |
-7.82% |
| Networking |
$NWX |
388.37 |
-5.17 |
-1.31% |
+8.50% |
| Broker/Dealer |
$XBD |
192.75 |
-0.43 |
-0.22% |
+4.39% |
| Retail |
$RLX |
1,229.20 |
-14.09 |
-1.13% |
+19.02% |
| Gold & Silver |
$XAU |
45.86 |
+1.35 |
+3.03% |
-33.32% |
| Bank |
$BKX |
78.47 |
-0.33 |
-0.42% |
+5.67% |
| Biotech |
$BTK |
4,106.40 |
-181.55 |
-4.23% |
+19.40% |
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Abrupt Retreat Following Breakout for Stock With Small Supply
Kenneth J. Gruneisen - Passed the CAN SLIM® Master's Exam
U S A N A Health Science (USNA -$19.28 or -10.95% to $156.84) abruptly pulled back and finished near the session low today with a big loss on heavy volume. Prior highs in the $145 area define initial support to watch. It quickly got very extended after highlighted in yellow with a pivot point based on its 7/02/15 high plus 10 cents in the 8/05/15 mid-day report (read here). Members were previously reminded - "A 'breakaway gap' is one noted exception where buying more than +5% above a prior high is allowed under the fact-based investment system. Risk increases the further one chases a stock above prior highs."
The high-ranked leader hails from the Cosmetics/Personal Care Industry group. It reported +41% earnings on +24% sales revenues for the Jun '15 quarter, and 3 of the past 4 quarterly comparisons versus the year ago periods were above the +25% minimum guideline (C criteria) Sales revenues growth showed encouraging acceleration, up +11%, +22%, +20%, and +24% in the Sep, Dec '14, Mar and Jun '15 quarters, respectively versus the year ago periods. Its annual earnings (A criteria) growth rate has been improving since a downturn in FY '08.
Ownership by top-rated funds rose from 226 in Jun '14 to 263 in Jun '15, a reassuring sign with respect to the I criteria. Its current Up/Down Volume Ratio of 1.5 is an unbiased indication its shares have been under accumulation over the past 50 days. Its small supply of only 12.7 million shares (S criteria) outstanding can contribute to greater price volatility in the event of institutional buying or selling.
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Color Codes Explained :
Y - Better candidates highlighted by our
staff of experts.
G - Previously featured
in past reports as yellow but may no longer be buyable under the
guidelines.
***Last / Change / Volume data in this table is the closing quote data***
Symbol/Exchange
Company Name
Industry Group |
PRICE |
CHANGE
(%Change) |
Day High |
Volume
(% DAV)
(% 50 day avg vol) |
52 Wk Hi
% From Hi |
Featured
Date |
Price
Featured |
Pivot Featured |
|
Max Buy |
GSBC
-
NASDAQ
Great Southern Bancorp
BANKING - Savings and Loans
|
$41.74
|
-0.22
-0.52% |
$42.29
|
41,734
130.42% of 50 DAV
50 DAV is 32,000
|
$42.99
-2.91%
|
4/27/2015
|
$40.94
|
PP = $40.54
|
|
MB = $42.57
|
Most Recent Note - 8/5/2015 8:36:35 PM
G - Still consolidating above its 50 DMA line ($41.36)defining near-term support. Reported earnings +8% on -11% sales revenues for the Jun '15 quarter, raising fundamental concerns, and its color code was changed to green. Damaging losses leading to violations of the 50 DMA line and prior lows would trigger technical sell signals.
>>> FEATURED STOCK ARTICLE : Finding Support While Consolidating After Sub Par Quarter - 7/30/2015 |
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C
A
S
I |
BOFI
-
NASDAQ
B O F I Holding Inc
BANKING - Savings andamp; Loans
|
$130.42
|
-3.02
-2.26% |
$132.99
|
680,937
324.26% of 50 DAV
50 DAV is 210,000
|
$134.79
-3.24%
|
6/10/2015
|
$101.47
|
PP = $97.78
|
|
MB = $102.67
|
Most Recent Note - 8/6/2015 12:22:10 PM
G - Perched at its all-time high following 6 consecutive gains marked by above average volume. Previously noted with caution - "It may produce more climactic gains, however it is very extended from its prior base. Its recent low ($111.43 on 7/29/15) defines near term support above its 50 DMA line."
>>> FEATURED STOCK ARTICLE : Extended and Perched Near High With Earnings News Due Soon - 7/27/2015 |
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C
A
S
I |
EPAM
-
NYSE
Epam Systems Inc
COMPUTER SOFTWARE and SERVICES - Information Technology Service
|
$70.01
|
-0.13
-0.19% |
$72.15
|
434,946
103.81% of 50 DAV
50 DAV is 419,000
|
$76.69
-8.71%
|
5/18/2015
|
$67.42
|
PP = $70.59
|
|
MB = $74.12
|
Most Recent Note - 8/5/2015 12:42:33 PM
G - Finding prompt support and rebounding from earlier lows after violating its 50 DMA line with a damaging loss today triggering a worrisome technical sell signal. Color code was changed to green. Reported earnings +21% on +25% sales revenues for the Jun '15 quarter, below the +25% minimum guideline (C criteria), raising fundamental concerns.
>>> FEATURED STOCK ARTICLE : Volume Totals Cooling While Consolidating Near Highs - 7/23/2015 |
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C
A
S
I |
AHS
-
NYSE
A M N Healthcare Svcs
DIVERSIFIED SERVICES - Staffing and Outsourcing Service
|
$33.82
|
-0.35
-1.02% |
$34.44
|
837,856
124.50% of 50 DAV
50 DAV is 673,000
|
$36.34
-6.93%
|
8/5/2015
|
$34.50
|
PP = $32.53
|
|
MB = $34.16
|
Most Recent Note - 8/5/2015 7:07:00 PM
Y - Finished near its "max buy" level after highlighted in yellow with new pivot point based on its 7/01/15 high plus 10 cents in the earlier mid-day report (read here). Hit a new 52-week high with a "breakaway gap" today, rallying with heavy volume from a 5-week flat base during which it found support at its 50 DMA line. Reported earnings +80% on +40% sales revenues for the Jun '15 quarter, its 3rd consecutive quarterly comparison with earnings above the +25% minimum guideline (C criteria), helping it better match the fact-based investment system's winning models. See the latest FSU analysis for additional details and an annotated graph.
>>> FEATURED STOCK ARTICLE : Gap Up Gain Triggered Technical Buy Signal Following Earnings - 8/5/2015 |
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C
A
S
I |
ILMN
-
NASDAQ
Illumina Inc
DRUGS - Biotechnology
|
$209.66
|
-6.20
-2.87% |
$217.46
|
1,634,545
116.17% of 50 DAV
50 DAV is 1,407,000
|
$242.37
-13.50%
|
6/8/2015
|
$209.97
|
PP = $213.43
|
|
MB = $224.10
|
Most Recent Note - 8/6/2015 6:25:16 PM
G - Color code is changed to green after slumping below its 50 DMA line with a big loss on higher volume. Damaging losses below recent lows ($207) would raise concerns and trigger a more worrisome technical sell signal.
>>> FEATURED STOCK ARTICLE : Support Found After Abrupt Pullback Following Earnings News - 7/24/2015 |
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C
A
S
I |
Symbol/Exchange
Company Name
Industry Group |
PRICE |
CHANGE
(%Change) |
Day High |
Volume
(% DAV)
(% 50 day avg vol) |
52 Wk Hi
% From Hi |
Featured
Date |
Price
Featured |
Pivot Featured |
|
Max Buy |
JAZZ
-
NASDAQ
Jazz Pharmaceuticals Plc
DRUGS - Biotechnology
|
$184.24
|
-7.66
-3.99% |
$192.00
|
677,735
162.53% of 50 DAV
50 DAV is 417,000
|
$194.73
-5.39%
|
7/29/2015
|
$190.13
|
PP = $191.11
|
|
MB = $200.67
|
Most Recent Note - 8/6/2015 1:41:35 PM
G - Pulling back today for a big loss with above average volume. Color code is changed to green due to fundamental concerns. Reported earnings +19% on +15% sales revenues for the Jun '15 quarter, below the +25% minimum earnings guideline (C criteria). It stalled after highlighted in yellow with pivot point cited based on its 4/27/15 high plus 10 cents in the 7/29/15 mid-day report (read here).
>>> FEATURED STOCK ARTICLE : No Resistance Due to Overhead Supply For Drug Firm - 7/29/2015 |
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C
A
S
I |
VRX
-
NYSE
Valeant Pharmaceuticals
DRUGS - Drug Manufacturers - Other
|
$248.40
|
-14.12
-5.38% |
$263.81
|
3,551,283
216.28% of 50 DAV
50 DAV is 1,642,000
|
$263.79
-5.83%
|
7/14/2015
|
$236.75
|
PP = $246.11
|
|
MB = $258.42
|
Most Recent Note - 8/6/2015 1:31:17 PM
Y - Pulling back today with higher volume, a sign of distributional pressure after wedging higher with recent gains lacking great volume conviction. Prior highs in the $246 area define initial support above the 50 DMA line. Its 7/23/15 gap up above the pivot point triggered a new (or add-on) technical buy signal.
>>> FEATURED STOCK ARTICLE : Holding Ground Following Latest Technical Breakout - 8/3/2015 |
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C
A
S
I |
USNA
-
NYSE
U S A N A Health Science
DRUGS - Drug Related Products
|
$156.84
|
-19.28
-10.95% |
$173.85
|
326,012
262.91% of 50 DAV
50 DAV is 124,000
|
$176.88
-11.33%
|
8/5/2015
|
$157.22
|
PP = $145.15
|
|
MB = $152.41
|
Most Recent Note - 8/6/2015 6:18:59 PM
G - Abruptly pulled back and finished near the session low today with a big loss on heavy volume. Prior highs in the $145 area define initial support to watch. Quickly got very extended after highlighted in yellow with a pivot point based on its 7/02/15 high plus 10 cents in the 8/05/15 mid-day report (read here). A "breakaway gap" is one noted exception where buying more than +5% above a prior high is allowed under the fact-based investment system. Risk increases the further one chases a stock above prior highs. See the latest FSU analysis for more details and a new annotated graph.
>>> FEATURED STOCK ARTICLE : Abrupt Retreat Following Breakout for Stock With Small Supply - 8/6/2015 |
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C
A
S
I |
AMBA
-
NASDAQ
Ambarella Inc
ELECTRONICS - Semiconductor - Specialized
|
$113.28
|
-1.77
-1.54% |
$115.97
|
1,694,265
38.41% of 50 DAV
50 DAV is 4,411,000
|
$129.19
-12.32%
|
5/1/2015
|
$75.99
|
PP = $77.49
|
|
MB = $81.36
|
Most Recent Note - 8/3/2015 5:46:39 PM
G - Pulling back toward its 50 DMA line ($106.83) defining near-term support. A violation would trigger a technical sell signal.
>>> FEATURED STOCK ARTICLE : Found Support Above 50-Day Moving Average After Sharp Pullback - 7/17/2015 |
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C
A
S
I |
ACHC
-
NASDAQ
Acadia Healthcare Inc
HEALTH SERVICES - Specialized Health Services
|
$82.84
|
-0.13
-0.16% |
$84.41
|
759,089
98.07% of 50 DAV
50 DAV is 774,000
|
$85.62
-3.25%
|
5/27/2015
|
$73.90
|
PP = $74.19
|
|
MB = $77.90
|
Most Recent Note - 8/5/2015 12:13:21 PM
G - Considerable volume-driven gain today for a new high, rallying from a brief consolidation, not a sound base pattern of sufficient length. Reported strong sales and earnings increases with acceleration again for Jun '15 quarter. Its 50 DMA line and recent lows define important support. See the latest FSU analysis for additional details and an annotated graph.
>>> FEATURED STOCK ARTICLE : Pullback Followed Another Strong Quarter Reported With Acceleration - 8/4/2015 |
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C
A
S
I |
Symbol/Exchange
Company Name
Industry Group |
PRICE |
CHANGE
(%Change) |
Day High |
Volume
(% DAV)
(% 50 day avg vol) |
52 Wk Hi
% From Hi |
Featured
Date |
Price
Featured |
Pivot Featured |
|
Max Buy |
APOG
-
NASDAQ
Apogee Enterprises
MATERIALS and CONSTRUCTION - General Building Materials
|
$53.22
|
-1.12
-2.06% |
$54.98
|
224,081
70.03% of 50 DAV
50 DAV is 320,000
|
$61.05
-12.82%
|
4/9/2015
|
$49.58
|
PP = $48.13
|
|
MB = $50.54
|
Most Recent Note - 8/6/2015 6:21:41 PM
G - Color code is changed to green while quietly slumping below its 50 DMA line. Damaging losses below recent low ($50.07 on 7/07/15) would raise greater concerns and trigger a worrisome technical sell signal.
>>> FEATURED STOCK ARTICLE : Rebound Above 50-Day Moving Average Line - 7/31/2015 |
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C
A
S
I |
JLL
-
NYSE
Jones Lang Lasalle Inc
REAL ESTATE - Property Management/Developmen
|
$176.74
|
-2.30
-1.28% |
$179.29
|
230,799
70.80% of 50 DAV
50 DAV is 326,000
|
$179.83
-1.72%
|
6/4/2015
|
$172.34
|
PP = $174.93
|
|
MB = $183.68
|
Most Recent Note - 8/5/2015 8:35:17 PM
Y - Posted a small gain with below average volume today for a best ever close. Found encouraging support at its 50 DMA line, however, recent gains above the pivot point lacked the minimum +40% above average volume necessary to trigger a new (or add-on) technical buy signal.
>>> FEATURED STOCK ARTICLE : Recent Gains Lacked Volume Conviction; Earnings Report Soon Expected - 7/22/2015 |
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C
A
S
I |
RH
-
NYSE
Restoration Hardware Hld
RETAIL - Home Furnishing Stores
|
$100.87
|
-2.82
-2.72% |
$103.99
|
681,608
91.00% of 50 DAV
50 DAV is 749,000
|
$105.98
-4.82%
|
7/28/2015
|
$102.40
|
PP = $102.10
|
|
MB = $107.21
|
Most Recent Note - 8/6/2015 1:38:10 PM
Y - Pulling back near near prior highs in the $100 area defining initial support. Its 50 DMA line ($98.04) defines the next important support level to watch.
>>> FEATURED STOCK ARTICLE : Fundamental and Technical Action Improved Outlook - 7/28/2015 |
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C
A
S
I |
ULTA
-
NASDAQ
Ulta Salon Cosm & Frag
SPECIALTY RETAIL - Specialty Retail, Other
|
$164.80
|
-2.21
-1.32% |
$167.96
|
629,575
77.53% of 50 DAV
50 DAV is 812,000
|
$171.21
-3.74%
|
5/29/2015
|
$155.03
|
PP = $159.95
|
|
MB = $167.95
|
Most Recent Note - 8/3/2015 5:53:30 PM
Y - Consolidating well above prior highs in the $159 area defining initial support to watch on pullbacks.
>>> FEATURED STOCK ARTICLE : Near "Max Buy" Level, But Recent Gains Lacked Great Volume Conviction - 7/20/2015 |
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A
S
I |
LXFT
-
NYSE
Luxoft Holding Inc Cl A
Comp Sftwr-Spec Enterprs
|
$60.29
|
-0.15
-0.25% |
$61.33
|
255,723
104.80% of 50 DAV
50 DAV is 244,000
|
$63.56
-5.14%
|
5/26/2015
|
$51.90
|
PP = $57.40
|
|
MB = $60.27
|
Most Recent Note - 8/3/2015 5:48:54 PM
G - Trading above its "max buy" level and its color code is changed to green. Its 50 DMA line ($58.07)defines near term support above prior highs in the $57 area. Subsequent violations would trigger technical sell signals.
>>> FEATURED STOCK ARTICLE : Extended From Base After Wedging Higher - 7/16/2015 |
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C
A
S
I |
Symbol/Exchange
Company Name
Industry Group |
PRICE |
CHANGE
(%Change) |
Day High |
Volume
(% DAV)
(% 50 day avg vol) |
52 Wk Hi
% From Hi |
Featured
Date |
Price
Featured |
Pivot Featured |
|
Max Buy |
PANW
-
NYSE
Palo Alto Networks
Computer Sftwr-Security
|
$174.49
|
-15.78
-8.29% |
$191.00
|
3,067,003
201.25% of 50 DAV
50 DAV is 1,524,000
|
$200.55
-12.99%
|
3/27/2015
|
$146.44
|
PP = $149.45
|
|
MB = $156.92
|
Most Recent Note - 8/6/2015 1:36:20 PM
G - Undercutting its 50 DMA line with a damaging loss on higher volume today raising concerns. Subsequent losses below its prior low ($167.82 on 7/07/15) would trigger a more worrisome technical sell signal.
>>> FEATURED STOCK ARTICLE : Wedging to New Highs After Brief Consolidation - 7/21/2015 |
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A
S
I |
|
|
|
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