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AFTER MARKET UPDATE - THURSDAY, AUGUST 20TH, 2015
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DOW |
-358.04 |
16,990.69 |
-2.06% |
|
Volume |
903,671,160 |
+10% |
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Volume |
1,976,562,130 |
+19% |
NASDAQ |
-141.56 |
4,877.49 |
-2.82% |
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Advancers |
531 |
17% |
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Advancers |
463 |
16% |
S&P 500 |
-43.88 |
2,035.73 |
-2.11% |
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Decliners |
2,679 |
83% |
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Decliners |
2,405 |
84% |
Russell 2000 |
-30.45 |
1,172.53 |
-2.53% |
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52 Wk Highs |
8 |
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52 Wk Highs |
15 |
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S&P 600 |
-15.06 |
686.30 |
-2.15% |
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52 Wk Lows |
352 |
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52 Wk Lows |
236 |
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Leadership Evaporates and Damage Grows as Correction Takes Toll on Leaders
Kenneth J. Gruneisen - Passed the CAN SLIM® Master's Exam
Stocks moved firmly lower on Thursday. The Dow was down 357 points to 16990. The S&P 500 was off 43 points to 2035. The NASDAQ declined 141 points to 4877. Technical deterioration in the charts of the major averages (M criteria) coupled with a contraction in leadership earned the label of a market "correction". The volume totals were reported higher than the prior session totals on the NYSE and on the Nasdaq exchange, a sign of increasing selling pressure coming from the institutional crowd. Breadth was solidly negative as decliners led advancers by a 5-1 margin on the NYSE and on the Nasdaq exchange. Leadership contracted as there were only 4 high-ranked companies from the Leaders List that made new 52-week highs and appeared on the BreakOuts Page, down abruptly from the prior session total of 25 stocks. There were losses for all of the 16 high-ranked companies currently on the Featured Stocks Page. The number of new 52-week lows swelled again and solidly outnumbered new 52-week highs on both the Nasdaq and on the NYSE.
PICTURED: The S&P 500 Index and Nasdaq Composite Index (not shown) both violated their 200-day moving average (DMA) lines and undercut their July lows with big losses on higher volume. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell to lows not seen since October 2014.
Disciplined investors always limit losses by selling any stock that falls more than -7% from their purchase price. This is precisely how the fact-based investment system prompts investors to reduce exposure in weak markets, preserving cash until another confirmed rally marked by solid leadership.
The S&P 500 moved into negative territory for the year as international uncertainty weighed on investors. On our shores, new jobless claims were slightly higher than expected this week, but remained near record lows. A separate report showed existing home sales last month were stronger than anticipated. Another release showed a survey of leading indicators in July proved more pessimistic than expected.
All ten sectors in the S&P 500 lost on the day with tech and consumer discretionary stocks declining the most. Netflix (NFLX -7.8%) and Facebook (FB -5.0%) as even 2015’s best performers weren’t immune from the sell-off. On the earnings front, Sears Holdings (SHLD -1.6%) fell despite posting a smaller-than-expected loss in the second quarter. L Brands (LB +3.4%) rose after matching analyst profit expectations and raising full year guidance. In other news, Micron (MU -7.3%) sank to a 12-month low after receiving a downgrade.
The treasury curve flattened. The benchmark U.S. 10-year note finished up 14/32 to yield 2.08%.
Commodities were mixed. WTI crude rebounded 0.8% to $41.14/barrel. COMEX gold traded 2.2% higher to $1153.40/ounce. In FOREX, the dollar index was down 0.4% with weakness against the yen and euro.
The number of stocks currently listed to the Featured Stocks Page has waned based on deteriorating market conditions. The most current notes with headline links help members have access to more detailed letter-by-letter analysis including price/volume graphs annotated by our experts. See the Premium Member Homepage for archives to all prior pay reports.
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Kenneth J. Gruneisen started out as a licensed stockbroker in August 1987, a couple of months prior to the historic stock market crash that took the Dow Jones Industrial Average down -22.6% in a single day. He has published daily fact-based fundamental and technical analysis on high-ranked stocks online for two decades. Through FACTBASEDINVESTING.COM, Kenneth provides educational articles, news, market commentary, and other information regarding proven investment systems that work in good times and bad.
Comments contained in the body of this report are technical opinions only and are not necessarily those of Gruneisen Growth Corp. The material herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable and accurate, however, its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Our firm, employees, and customers may effect transactions, including transactions contrary to any recommendation herein, or have positions in the securities mentioned herein or options with respect thereto. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors and it is not to be deemed an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the purchase or sale of any securities. |
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Tech, Financial, Retail and Energy Groups Fell
Kenneth J. Gruneisen - Passed the CAN SLIM® Master's Exam
Financial shares were a negative influence on the major averages as the Broker/Dealer Index ($XBD -2.23%) and the Bank Index ($BKX -2.87%) both fell on Thursday. The Biotechnology Index ($BTK -4.64%), Semiconductor Index ($SOX -3.81%), and the Networking Index ($NWX -3.66%) suffered big and broad-based losses. The Retail Index ($RLX -2.16%) also slumped. Energy-linked groups were down again as the Oil Services Index ($OSX -2.45%) and the Integrated Oil Index ($XOI -1.81%) both sank again. Meanwhile the Gold & Silver Index ($XAU +3.46%) was a standout gainer.
PICTURED: The Bank Index ($BKX -2.87%) met resistance at its 50-day moving average (DMA) line when recently trying to rebound. Thursday's big loss abruptly sent it near prior lows and also slumping toward its 200 DMA line. Longtime readers of this commentary may remember that weak action from financial shares hurts the broader market outlook because financial stocks have a history of being reliable "leading indicators".
Oil Services |
$OSX |
167.50 |
-4.22 |
-2.46% |
-20.57% |
Integrated Oil |
$XOI |
1,145.81 |
-21.13 |
-1.81% |
-15.01% |
Semiconductor |
$SOX |
594.78 |
-23.54 |
-3.81% |
-13.41% |
Networking |
$NWX |
373.43 |
-14.18 |
-3.66% |
+4.33% |
Broker/Dealer |
$XBD |
181.48 |
-4.13 |
-2.23% |
-1.71% |
Retail |
$RLX |
1,225.19 |
-27.09 |
-2.16% |
+18.64% |
Gold & Silver |
$XAU |
53.75 |
+1.79 |
+3.44% |
-21.85% |
Bank |
$BKX |
75.32 |
-2.22 |
-2.86% |
+1.43% |
Biotech |
$BTK |
3,856.04 |
-187.48 |
-4.64% |
+12.12% |
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Hovering Near Highs Very Extended From Sound Base
Kenneth J. Gruneisen - Passed the CAN SLIM® Master's Exam
B O F I Holding Inc (BOFI -$2.59 or -1.98% to $128.40) is stubbornly holding its ground near its all-time high following gains marked by above average volume. Disciplined investors avoid chasing stocks more than +5% above their prior high or pivot point. It was previously noted with caution - "It may produce more climactic gains, however it is very extended from its prior base. Its recent low ($111.43 on 7/29/15) defines near term support above its 50 DMA line."
It rallied further into new high territory (N criteria) with no resistance remaining due to overhead supply after last shown in this FSU section on 7/27/15 with an annotated graph under the headline, "Extended and Perched Near High With Earnings News Due Soon". It reported Jun '15 quarterly earnings +41% on +42% sales revenues, above the +25% minimum earnings guideline (C criteria) again. Earnings rose by +35%, +40%, +41%, +38%, and +35% in the Mar, Jun, Sep, Dec '14, and Mar '15 quarters, respectively, versus the year ago periods. Sales revenues were up +21%, +24%, +39%, +41%, and +41% during that span. Following a downturn in its FY '11 earnings its annual earnings (A criteria) history has been strong.
Leadership from other Finance - Savings & Loan issues has been reassuring concerning the L criteria. It has earned a Timeliness rating of A, and a Sponsorship rating of B. Keep in mind that its small supply of only 13.4 million shares (S criteria) in the public float can contribute to greater price volatility in the event of institutional buying or selling. BOFI was highlighted in yellow with pivot point cited based on its 3/23/15 high plus 10 cents in the 6/10/15 mid-day report (read here) while noted - "It clinched a technical buy signal with a gain backed by +55% above average volume on the prior session."
The current Up/Down Volume Ratio of 1.6 is an unbiased indication its shares have been under accumulation (I criteria) over the past 50 days. The number of top-rated funds owning share rose from 261 in Sep '14 to 275 in Jun '15.
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Color Codes Explained :
Y - Better candidates highlighted by our
staff of experts. G - Previously featured
in past reports as yellow but may no longer be buyable under the
guidelines.
***Last / Change / Volume data in this table is the closing quote data***
Symbol/Exchange
Company Name
Industry Group |
PRICE |
CHANGE (%Change) |
Day High |
Volume (% DAV) (% 50 day avg vol) |
52 Wk Hi % From Hi |
Featured Date |
Price Featured |
Pivot Featured |
Max Buy |
GSBC
-
NASDAQ
Great Southern Bancorp
BANKING - Savings and Loans
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$40.32
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-1.18
-2.84% |
$41.34
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42,394 124.69% of 50 DAV
50 DAV is 34,000
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$42.99 -6.21%
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4/27/2015
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$40.94
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PP = $40.54
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MB = $42.57
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Most Recent Note - 8/20/2015 4:03:31 PM
Slumping below its 50 DMA line after earnings +8% on -11% sales revenues for the Jun '15 quarter. Will be dropped from the Featured Stocks list due to technical and fundamental concerns. Recent low ($40.11 on 8/12/15) defines important support where any subsequent violation would trigger a more worrisome technical sell signal.
>>> FEATURED STOCK ARTICLE : Finding Support While Consolidating After Sub Par Quarter - 7/30/2015 |
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C
A
S
I |
BOFI
-
NASDAQ
B O F I Holding Inc
BANKING - Savings andamp; Loans
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$128.40
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-2.59
-1.98% |
$131.12
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256,062 107.14% of 50 DAV
50 DAV is 239,000
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$134.79 -4.74%
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6/10/2015
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$101.47
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PP = $97.78
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MB = $102.67
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Most Recent Note - 8/20/2015 6:05:06 PM
G - It may produce more climactic gains, however it is very extended from its prior base. Near term support to watch is at its 50 DMA line ($114.46). See the latest FSU analysis for more details and a new annotated graph.
>>> FEATURED STOCK ARTICLE : Hovering Near Highs Very Extended From Sound Base - 8/20/2015 |
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C
A
S
I |
AHS
-
NYSE
A M N Healthcare Svcs
DIVERSIFIED SERVICES - Staffing and Outsourcing Service
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$35.45
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-1.02
-2.80% |
$36.50
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948,111 138.41% of 50 DAV
50 DAV is 685,000
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$37.25 -4.83%
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8/5/2015
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$34.50
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PP = $32.53
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MB = $34.16
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Most Recent Note - 8/20/2015 4:09:44 PM
G - Hovering above its "max buy" level, extended from any sound base. Disciplined investors avoid chasing extended stocks. Prior highs in the $32 area define initial support to watch above its 50 DMA line.
>>> FEATURED STOCK ARTICLE : Gap Up Gain Triggered Technical Buy Signal Following Earnings - 8/5/2015 |
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C
A
S
I |
ILMN
-
NASDAQ
Illumina Inc
DRUGS - Biotechnology
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$200.43
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-5.22
-2.54% |
$205.00
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1,124,244 77.00% of 50 DAV
50 DAV is 1,460,000
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$242.37 -17.30%
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6/8/2015
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$209.97
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PP = $213.43
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MB = $224.10
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Most Recent Note - 8/18/2015 6:30:19 PM
G - Still sputtering below its 50 DMA line. Outlook gets worse the longer it lingers below that important short-term average. The 200 DMA line ($198.83) defines the next important near-term support. See the latest FSU analysis for more details and a new annotated graph.
>>> FEATURED STOCK ARTICLE : Sputtering Below 50-Day Average and Below Prior Highs - 8/18/2015 |
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A
S
I |
JAZZ
-
NASDAQ
Jazz Pharmaceuticals Plc
DRUGS - Biotechnology
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$181.70
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-4.50
-2.42% |
$185.86
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506,081 121.39% of 50 DAV
50 DAV is 416,900
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$194.73 -6.69%
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7/29/2015
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$190.13
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PP = $191.11
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MB = $200.67
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Most Recent Note - 8/18/2015 2:05:10 PM
G - Consolidating above its 50 and 200 DMA lines and perched only -3.5% off all-time highs. Fundamental concerns were recently noted after it reported earnings +19% on +15% sales revenues for the Jun '15 quarter, below the +25% minimum earnings guideline (C criteria). It stalled after highlighted in yellow with pivot point cited based on its 4/27/15 high plus 10 cents in the 7/29/15 mid-day report (read here).
>>> FEATURED STOCK ARTICLE : No Resistance Due to Overhead Supply For Drug Firm - 7/29/2015 |
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C
A
S
I |
Symbol/Exchange
Company Name
Industry Group |
PRICE |
CHANGE (%Change) |
Day High |
Volume (% DAV) (% 50 day avg vol) |
52 Wk Hi % From Hi |
Featured Date |
Price Featured |
Pivot Featured |
Max Buy |
VRX
-
NYSE
Valeant Pharmaceuticals
DRUGS - Drug Manufacturers - Other
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$229.06
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-15.85
-6.47% |
$244.95
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3,304,622 196.24% of 50 DAV
50 DAV is 1,684,000
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$263.81 -13.17%
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7/14/2015
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$236.75
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PP = $246.11
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MB = $258.42
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Most Recent Note - 8/20/2015 3:56:43 PM
G - Violating its 50 DMA line with a damaging volume-driven loss triggering a technical sell signal and its color code is changed to green. Only a prompt rebound above the 50 DMA line would help its outlook.
>>> FEATURED STOCK ARTICLE : Holding Ground Following Latest Technical Breakout - 8/3/2015 |
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C
A
S
I |
USNA
-
NYSE
U S A N A Health Science
DRUGS - Drug Related Products
|
$157.35
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-1.27
-0.80% |
$160.61
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108,183 81.34% of 50 DAV
50 DAV is 133,000
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$176.88 -11.04%
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8/5/2015
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$157.22
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PP = $145.15
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MB = $152.41
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Most Recent Note - 8/18/2015 2:15:52 PM
G -Volume totals have been cooling while consolidating well above prior highs in the $145 area defining initial support to watch. Risk increases the further one chases a stock above prior highs.
>>> FEATURED STOCK ARTICLE : Abrupt Retreat Following Breakout for Stock With Small Supply - 8/6/2015 |
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A
S
I |
AMBA
-
NASDAQ
Ambarella Inc
ELECTRONICS - Semiconductor - Specialized
|
$97.04
|
-7.60
-7.26% |
$104.00
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3,079,725 73.10% of 50 DAV
50 DAV is 4,213,000
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$129.19 -24.89%
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5/1/2015
|
$75.99
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PP = $77.49
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MB = $81.36
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Most Recent Note - 8/20/2015 3:51:13 PM
Slumping further below its 50 DMA line and near prior lows in the $93 area defining the next important support level. Only a rebound above its 50 DMA line would help its outlook. Will be dropped from the Featured Stocks list tonight due to technical deterioration.
>>> FEATURED STOCK ARTICLE : Choppy Consolidation is Not a New Cup-With-Handle Base - 8/7/2015 |
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A
S
I |
ACHC
-
NASDAQ
Acadia Healthcare Inc
HEALTH SERVICES - Specialized Health Services
|
$76.03
|
-3.14
-3.97% |
$78.92
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1,084,805 143.30% of 50 DAV
50 DAV is 757,000
|
$85.62 -11.20%
|
5/27/2015
|
$73.90
|
PP = $74.19
|
MB = $77.90
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Most Recent Note - 8/20/2015 4:07:39 PM
G - Violated its 50 DMA line and recent lows with volume-driven losses triggering technical sell signals. Only a prompt rebound above the 50 DMA would help its outlook improve. Completed a Secondary Offering on 8/12/15.
>>> FEATURED STOCK ARTICLE : Pullback Followed Another Strong Quarter Reported With Acceleration - 8/4/2015 |
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C
A
S
I |
APOG
-
NASDAQ
Apogee Enterprises
MATERIALS and CONSTRUCTION - General Building Materials
|
$51.65
|
-2.08
-3.87% |
$53.44
|
174,698 52.15% of 50 DAV
50 DAV is 335,000
|
$61.05 -15.39%
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4/9/2015
|
$49.58
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PP = $48.13
|
MB = $50.54
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Most Recent Note - 8/20/2015 4:12:22 PM
Slumped further below its 50 DMA line which recently acted as resistance. Will be dropped from the Featured Stocks list tonight. Damaging losses below the recent low ($50.07 on 7/07/15) or its 200 DMA line would raise greater concerns and trigger a worrisome technical sell signal.
>>> FEATURED STOCK ARTICLE : Rebound Above 50-Day Moving Average Line - 7/31/2015 |
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C
A
S
I |
Symbol/Exchange
Company Name
Industry Group |
PRICE |
CHANGE (%Change) |
Day High |
Volume (% DAV) (% 50 day avg vol) |
52 Wk Hi % From Hi |
Featured Date |
Price Featured |
Pivot Featured |
Max Buy |
JLL
-
NYSE
Jones Lang Lasalle Inc
REAL ESTATE - Property Management/Developmen
|
$168.85
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-5.16
-2.97% |
$172.97
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292,881 107.28% of 50 DAV
50 DAV is 273,000
|
$179.97 -6.18%
|
6/4/2015
|
$172.34
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PP = $174.93
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MB = $183.68
|
Most Recent Note - 8/20/2015 4:16:23 PM
G - Violated its 50 DMA line with today's loss triggering a technical sell signal. Only a prompt rebound would help its outlook improve. Fundamental concerns were raised as Jun '15 earnings were +20% on +8% sales revenues, below the +25% minimum earnings guideline (C criteria).
>>> FEATURED STOCK ARTICLE : Fundamental Concerns Raised - Earnings Below +25% Guideline - 8/17/2015 |
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C
A
S
I |
RH
-
NYSE
Restoration Hardware Hld
RETAIL - Home Furnishing Stores
|
$96.68
|
-2.37
-2.39% |
$98.41
|
535,331 68.28% of 50 DAV
50 DAV is 784,000
|
$105.98 -8.78%
|
7/28/2015
|
$102.40
|
PP = $102.10
|
MB = $107.21
|
Most Recent Note - 8/18/2015 2:09:27 PM
Y - Still consolidating just above its 50 DMA line ($99.38). More damaging losses below the recent low ($96.13 on 8/12/15) would raise greater concerns and trigger a worrisome technical sell signal.
>>> FEATURED STOCK ARTICLE : Slumped Quietly Below 50-Day Moving Average Line - 8/19/2015 |
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A
S
I |
ULTA
-
NASDAQ
Ulta Salon Cosm & Frag
SPECIALTY RETAIL - Specialty Retail, Other
|
$171.30
|
-1.32
-0.76% |
$172.91
|
836,026 126.10% of 50 DAV
50 DAV is 663,000
|
$176.77 -3.09%
|
5/29/2015
|
$155.03
|
PP = $159.95
|
MB = $167.95
|
Most Recent Note - 8/18/2015 2:14:03 PM
G - Hitting a new 52-week high with today's 4th consecutive gain. Recent lows and its 50 DMA line define support to watch in the $162-163 area.
>>> FEATURED STOCK ARTICLE : Recent Gains Have Still Lacked Substantial Volume Conviction - 8/13/2015 |
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A
S
I |
LXFT
-
NYSE
Luxoft Holding Inc Cl A
Comp Sftwr-Spec Enterprs
|
$62.97
|
-1.15
-1.79% |
$64.47
|
463,536 175.58% of 50 DAV
50 DAV is 264,000
|
$68.16 -7.61%
|
5/26/2015
|
$51.90
|
PP = $57.40
|
MB = $60.27
|
Most Recent Note - 8/20/2015 1:07:26 PM
G - Retreating further from its 52-week high with today's 5th consecutive loss. Recent lows and its 50 DMA line define near-term support.
>>> FEATURED STOCK ARTICLE : Earnings News Often Leads to Greater Volume and Volatility - 8/10/2015 |
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A
S
I |
PANW
-
NYSE
Palo Alto Networks
Computer Sftwr-Security
|
$160.62
|
-13.50
-7.75% |
$172.32
|
2,683,341 185.57% of 50 DAV
50 DAV is 1,446,000
|
$200.55 -19.91%
|
3/27/2015
|
$146.44
|
PP = $149.45
|
MB = $156.92
|
Most Recent Note - 8/20/2015 3:53:18 PM
More serious volume-driven losses today raising concerns and triggering technical sell signals. Only a rebound above its 50 DMA line would help its outlook. Will be dropped from the Featured Stocks list tonight due to technical deterioration.
>>> FEATURED STOCK ARTICLE : Following Damaging Losses Gains Came With Light Volume - 8/14/2015 |
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C
A
S
I |
Symbol/Exchange
Company Name
Industry Group |
PRICE |
CHANGE (%Change) |
Day High |
Volume (% DAV) (% 50 day avg vol) |
52 Wk Hi % From Hi |
Featured Date |
Price Featured |
Pivot Featured |
Max Buy |
INGN
-
NASDAQ
Inogen Inc
HEALTH SERVICES - Medical Instruments and Supplies
|
$49.42
|
-1.50
-2.95% |
$50.90
|
192,605 72.14% of 50 DAV
50 DAV is 267,000
|
$51.86 -4.70%
|
8/12/2015
|
$49.01
|
PP = $45.85
|
MB = $48.14
|
Most Recent Note - 8/20/2015 6:07:17 PM
G - Pulled back on lighter volume today slumping toward its "max buy" level. Prior highs near $45 define initial support above its 50 DMA line.
>>> FEATURED STOCK ARTICLE : Finished Strong With Volume-Driven Breakout Gain - 8/12/2015 |
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A
S
I |
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THESE ARE NOT BUY RECOMMENDATIONS!
Comments contained in the body of this report are technical
opinions only. The material herein has been obtained
from sources believed to be reliable and accurate, however,
its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed.
This site is not an investment advisor, hence it does
not endorse or recommend any securities or other investments.
Any recommendation contained in this report may not
be suitable for all investors and it is not to be deemed
an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to
the purchase or sale of any securities. All trademarks,
service marks and trade names appearing in this report
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likewise used for identification purposes only.
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