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AFTER MARKET UPDATE - THURSDAY, DECEMBER 3RD, 2015
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DOW |
-252.01 |
17,477.67 |
-1.42% |
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Volume |
993,015,100 |
+7% |
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Volume |
1,895,343,010 |
-0% |
NASDAQ |
-85.69 |
5,037.53 |
-1.67% |
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Advancers |
578 |
19% |
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Advancers |
690 |
23% |
S&P 500 |
-29.89 |
2,049.62 |
-1.44% |
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Decliners |
2,517 |
81% |
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Decliners |
2,300 |
77% |
Russell 2000 |
-21.12 |
1,170.57 |
-1.77% |
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52 Wk Highs |
39 |
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52 Wk Highs |
57 |
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S&P 600 |
-11.29 |
693.25 |
-1.60% |
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52 Wk Lows |
168 |
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52 Wk Lows |
84 |
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Breadth Negative and Volume Higher on NYSE as Indices Fell
Kenneth J. Gruneisen - Passed the CAN SLIM® Master's Exam
Stocks retreated on Thursday. The Dow lost 252 points to 17477. The S&P was off 29 points to 2049 and the NASDAQ fell 85 points to 5037. Volume was higher than the prior session total on the NYSE and near the prior session total on the Nasdaq exchange. Breadth was solidly negative as decliners led advancers by more than a 4-1 margin on the NYSE and by more than 3-1 on the Nasdaq exchange. Leadership waned as there were 32 high-ranked companies from the Leaders List that made new 52-week highs and were listed on the BreakOuts Page, down from 56 on the prior session. There were gains for only 1 of the 13 high-ranked companies currently on the Featured Stocks Page. New 52-week lows outnumbered new 52-week highs on the Nasdaq exchange and on the NYSE. Charts used courtesy of www.stockcharts.com
PICTURED: The S&P 500 Index slumped below its 200-day moving average (DMA) line, sinking near its 50 DMA line and prior lows. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 Index both violated their respective 200 DMA lines while leadership (stocks hitting new highs) waned, putting pressure on the uptrend for the major averages (M criteria). The major averages tumbled along with bonds and the U.S. dollar as investors weighed commentary by central bank members. In testimony before Congress this morning, Fed Chair Janet Yellen said the U.S. economy has mostly met the criteria needed to raise interest rates. Overseas, additional stimulus measures announced by President Mario Draghi following the ECB’s policy meeting fell well short of investor expectations. On the data front, weekly jobless claims rose 9,000 to 269,000, essentially in line with consensus estimates. Separate reports showed the pace of service sector activity slowed more than expected in November, while factory orders increased 1.5% during October. All ten sectors in the S&P 500 declined on Thursday. Chesapeake Energy Corp (CHK -11.78%) fell as the energy and healthcare sectors each lost more than 2% on the session, meanwhile consumer staples stocks relatively outperformed. Treasuries were firmly lower with longer maturities experiencing their worst session since February. The 10-year note dropped a point and 7/32 to yield 2.32% while the 30-year bond fell 2 points and 30/32 to yield 3.06%. In commodities, NYMEX WTI crude rebounded 3% to $41.14/barrel. COMEX gold closed 0.7% higher at $1061.90/ounce. In FOREX, the dollar index fell more than 2% with the greenback plunging more than 3% against the euro.
The Featured Stocks Page saw some new names recently added. The most current notes with headline links help members have access to more detailed letter-by-letter analysis including price/volume graphs annotated by our experts. See the Premium Member Homepage for archives to all prior pay reports.
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Kenneth J. Gruneisen started out as a licensed stockbroker in August 1987, a couple of months prior to the historic stock market crash that took the Dow Jones Industrial Average down -22.6% in a single day. He has published daily fact-based fundamental and technical analysis on high-ranked stocks online for two decades. Through FACTBASEDINVESTING.COM, Kenneth provides educational articles, news, market commentary, and other information regarding proven investment systems that work in good times and bad.
Comments contained in the body of this report are technical opinions only and are not necessarily those of Gruneisen Growth Corp. The material herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable and accurate, however, its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Our firm, employees, and customers may effect transactions, including transactions contrary to any recommendation herein, or have positions in the securities mentioned herein or options with respect thereto. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors and it is not to be deemed an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the purchase or sale of any securities. |
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Gold & Silver Index Rose Amid Widespread Weakness
Kenneth J. Gruneisen - Passed the CAN SLIM® Master's Exam
The Gold & Silver Index ($XAU +1.34%) rose while most industry groups fell on Thursday. The Integrated Oil Index ($XOI -1.55%) and Oil Services Index ($OSX -0.39%) both ended lower. The Retail Index ($RLX-1.13%), the Bank Index ($BKX-1.44%) and the Broker/Dealer Index ($XBD -0.99%) were negative influences on the major averages. The Biotechnology Index ($BTK -2.75%) and the Networking Index ($NWX -1.89%) outpaced the Semiconductor Index ($SOX -0.58%) to the downside. Charts courtesy www.stockcharts.com
PICTURED: The Retail Index ($RLX-1.13%) is perched near all-time highs. It found prompt support near its 50-day moving average (DMA) line and rebounded to reach another new high.
Oil Services |
$OSX |
173.25 |
-0.68 |
-0.39% |
-17.84% |
Integrated Oil |
$XOI |
1,154.26 |
-18.18 |
-1.55% |
-14.38% |
Semiconductor |
$SOX |
678.72 |
-3.97 |
-0.58% |
-1.19% |
Networking |
$NWX |
388.75 |
-7.50 |
-1.89% |
+8.61% |
Broker/Dealer |
$XBD |
184.97 |
-1.85 |
-0.99% |
+0.18% |
Retail |
$RLX |
1,289.24 |
-14.76 |
-1.13% |
+24.84% |
Gold & Silver |
$XAU |
47.17 |
+0.63 |
+1.35% |
-31.42% |
Bank |
$BKX |
74.61 |
-1.09 |
-1.44% |
+0.47% |
Biotech |
$BTK |
3,667.03 |
-103.54 |
-2.75% |
+6.63% |
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Streak of Volume Driven Losses Raising Concern
Kenneth J. Gruneisen - Passed the CAN SLIM® Master's Exam
Ulta Salon Cosmetics & Fragrance, Inc. (ULTA -$0.33 or -0.20% to $163.19) suffered 4 consecutive volume-driven losses, a sign of distributional pressure raising concerns while undercutting its 50-day moving average (DMA) line. Its 200 DMA line and recent lows ($151.52) define the next important support. It will be dropped from the Featured Stocks list tonight. Subsequent gains above the 50 DMA line are needed for its outlook to improve.
It was recently noted with caution - "Fundamental concerns remain after the Sep '15 quarter earnings were below the +25% minimum guideline (C criteria)." ULTA was last shown with an annotated graph in this FSU section on 11/13/15 under the headline, "Gains on Light Volume Before Decisive Drop on Heavy Volume". Without impressive volume-driven gains and bullish "breakout" action indicative of heavy institutional buying demand investors have less reason to believe a sustained and meaningful advance in a company's share price is likely. ULTA was shown with an annotated graph in this FSU section on 10/29/15 under the headline, "Recent Gains Lacked Volume Indicative of Institutional Buying Demand". Gains lacked volume conviction while rising above its pivot point for its best-ever close, and all subsequent gains were backed by below average volume.
ULTA reported earnings +22% on +19% sales revenues for the Jul '15 quarter, below the +25% minimum earnings guideline (C criteria), raising fundamental concerns. Earnings rose +34%, +26%, +22%, and +35% in the Jul '14, Oct '14, Jan '15 and Apr '15 quarterly comparisons, respectively. Its strong earnings have been underpinned by steady sales revenues increases in the +21-22% range during that span of time. Its solid annual earnings (A criteria) history is very reassuring. It has a small supply (S criteria) of only 62.7 million shares in the public float. The number of top-rated funds with an ownership interest has grown from 566 funds in Jun '14 to 848 funds as of Sep'15, which is a very encouraging sign of increasing institutional interest (the I criteria). |
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Color Codes Explained :
Y - Better candidates highlighted by our
staff of experts. G - Previously featured
in past reports as yellow but may no longer be buyable under the
guidelines.
***Last / Change / Volume data in this table is the closing quote data***
Symbol/Exchange
Company Name
Industry Group |
PRICE |
CHANGE (%Change) |
Day High |
Volume (% DAV) (% 50 day avg vol) |
52 Wk Hi % From Hi |
Featured Date |
Price Featured |
Pivot Featured |
Max Buy |
PNFP
-
NASDAQ
Pinnacle Financial Prtnr
BANKING - Regional - Southeast Banks
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$53.47
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-0.03
-0.06% |
$54.46
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213,762 129.55% of 50 DAV
50 DAV is 165,000
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$57.99 -7.79%
|
11/6/2015
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$56.34
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PP = $55.58
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MB = $58.36
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Most Recent Note - 12/1/2015 1:07:58 PM
Y - Volume totals have been cooling in recent weeks while consolidating. Its 50 DMA line ($52.60) defines the next important support level. Concerns were raised as it slumped back into the prior base. Disciplined investors limit losses by selling any stock that falls more than -7% from their purchase price.
>>> FEATURED STOCK ARTICLE : Negated Breakout Then Finding Support Above 50 Day Average - 11/24/2015 |
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C
A
S
I |
SFNC
-
NASDAQ
Simmons First Natl Cp A
BANKING - Regional - Southeast Banks
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$56.30
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-0.60
-1.05% |
$57.58
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123,694 85.31% of 50 DAV
50 DAV is 145,000
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$58.75 -4.17%
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10/22/2015
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$50.13
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PP = $48.98
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MB = $51.43
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Most Recent Note - 12/1/2015 1:10:01 PM
G - Touched a new 52-week high today then reversed into the red. Its 50 DMA line defines near-term support to watch ($51.61) on pullbacks.
>>> FEATURED STOCK ARTICLE : Extended From Prior Base and Perched Near High - 11/19/2015 |
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C
A
S
I |
MANH
-
NASDAQ
Manhattan Associates Inc
COMPUTER SOFTWARE and SERVICES - Technical and System Software
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$74.81
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-1.39
-1.82% |
$77.29
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471,046 86.91% of 50 DAV
50 DAV is 542,000
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$77.56 -3.55%
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10/21/2015
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$69.18
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PP = $69.91
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MB = $73.41
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Most Recent Note - 11/30/2015 5:34:50 PM
G - Hit another new high with today's gain on slightly above average volume. Prior highs in the $69 area and its 50 DMA line define support to watch on pullbacks.
>>> FEATURED STOCK ARTICLE : Consolidating Above Prior Highs and 50-Day Moving Average - 11/18/2015 |
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C
A
S
I |
HAWK
-
NASDAQ
Blackhawk Network Inc
DIVERSIFIED SERVICES - Business/Management Services
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$46.12
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-1.32
-2.78% |
$47.50
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474,079 85.42% of 50 DAV
50 DAV is 555,000
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$48.40 -4.71%
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11/25/2015
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$47.63
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PP = $47.07
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MB = $49.42
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Most Recent Note - 12/1/2015 1:18:03 PM
Y - Stubbornly and quietly holding its ground after its 11/25/15 gain with +36% above average volume. Fundamentals remain strong. Volume must be at least +40% above average behind gains above a stock's pivot point to trigger a proper technical buy signal.
>>> FEATURED STOCK ARTICLE : Gain For New High With +36% Above Average Volume - 11/25/2015 |
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C
A
S
I |
JBSS
-
NASDAQ
Sanfilippo John B & Son
FOOD and BEVERAGE - Processed and Packaged Goods
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$55.94
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-0.96
-1.69% |
$58.14
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61,175 79.45% of 50 DAV
50 DAV is 77,000
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$66.29 -15.61%
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10/27/2015
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$56.00
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PP = $57.33
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MB = $60.20
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Most Recent Note - 11/30/2015 5:33:21 PM
Y - Color code is changed to yellow while pulling back near prior highs in the $57 area and its 50 DMA line defining important support. See the latest FSU analysis for more details and a new annotated graph.
>>> FEATURED STOCK ARTICLE : Consolidating Above Prior Highs and 50-Day Moving Average - 11/30/2015 |
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C
A
S
I |
Symbol/Exchange
Company Name
Industry Group |
PRICE |
CHANGE (%Change) |
Day High |
Volume (% DAV) (% 50 day avg vol) |
52 Wk Hi % From Hi |
Featured Date |
Price Featured |
Pivot Featured |
Max Buy |
STMP
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NASDAQ
Stamps.com Inc
INTERNET - Internet Software and Services
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$100.13
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-2.95
-2.86% |
$104.00
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268,636 92.31% of 50 DAV
50 DAV is 291,000
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$106.43 -5.92%
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11/6/2015
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$100.75
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PP = $88.97
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MB = $93.42
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Most Recent Note - 11/30/2015 5:36:45 PM
G - Consolidating in a tight range near its 52-week high. Prior highs in the $88 area define important near-term support to watch. Disciplined investors avoid chasing extended stocks.
>>> FEATURED STOCK ARTICLE : Volume-Driven Gain For Second Best Close - 11/23/2015 |
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C
A
S
I |
ULTI
-
NASDAQ
Ultimate Software Group
INTERNET - Internet Software and Services
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$192.73
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-4.49
-2.28% |
$198.33
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257,694 95.80% of 50 DAV
50 DAV is 269,000
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$216.27 -10.88%
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10/28/2015
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$204.38
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PP = $195.28
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MB = $205.04
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Most Recent Note - 12/1/2015 1:14:57 PM
Y - Consolidating above prior highs in the $195 area defining support along with its 50 DMA line ($194.30). Subsequent violations may trigger technical sell signals.
>>> FEATURED STOCK ARTICLE : Following Big Breakout Volume Totals Have Cooled - 11/16/2015 |
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C
A
S
I |
ULTA
-
NASDAQ
Ulta Salon Cosm & Frag
SPECIALTY RETAIL - Specialty Retail, Other
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$163.19
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-0.33
-0.20% |
$165.36
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2,058,318 276.28% of 50 DAV
50 DAV is 745,000
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$176.77 -7.68%
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10/22/2015
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$168.02
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PP = $170.31
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MB = $178.83
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Most Recent Note - 12/3/2015 6:13:39 PM
Pulled back for a 4th consecutive volume-driven loss, a sign of distributional pressure raising concerns while undercutting its 50 DMA line. It will be dropped from the Featured Stocks list tonight. Its 200 DMA line and recent lows ($151.52) define the next important support. Previously noted with caution - "Fundamental concerns remain after the Sep '15 quarter earnings were below the +25% minimum guideline (C criteria)." See the latest FSU analysis for more details and a new annotated graph.
>>> FEATURED STOCK ARTICLE : Streak of Volume Driven Losses Raising Concern - 12/3/2015 |
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C
A
S
I |
FLTX
-
NYSE
Fleetmatics Group Plc
Computer Sftwr-Enterprse
|
$60.97
|
-0.35
-0.57% |
$62.77
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497,273 112.25% of 50 DAV
50 DAV is 443,000
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$61.85 -1.42%
|
9/23/2015
|
$51.26
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PP = $52.55
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MB = $55.18
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Most Recent Note - 12/1/2015 1:13:12 PM
G - Poised for possibly a best-ever close with today's gain on light volume. Consolidation is still too short to be considered a valid new base. Prior highs in the $56 area define near-term support above its 50 DMA line ($55.46).
>>> FEATURED STOCK ARTICLE : Extended From Prior Base and Perched Near High - 11/17/2015 |
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C
A
S
I |
LGIH
-
NASDAQ
L G I Homes Inc
Bldg-Resident/Comml
|
$30.54
|
-3.69
-10.78% |
$34.96
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1,347,198 248.10% of 50 DAV
50 DAV is 543,000
|
$36.07 -15.33%
|
12/1/2015
|
$35.15
|
PP = $33.97
|
MB = $35.67
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Most Recent Note - 12/3/2015 6:16:45 PM
Y - Pulled back into the prior base with a big loss on higher volume today raising concerns and testing support at its 50 DMA line ($30.63). More damaging losses would raise concerns and trigger a technical sell signal.
>>> FEATURED STOCK ARTICLE : Volume Heavy Behind Breakout Gain - 12/1/2015 |
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C
A
S
I |
Symbol/Exchange
Company Name
Industry Group |
PRICE |
CHANGE (%Change) |
Day High |
Volume (% DAV) (% 50 day avg vol) |
52 Wk Hi % From Hi |
Featured Date |
Price Featured |
Pivot Featured |
Max Buy |
LXFT
-
NYSE
Luxoft Holding Inc Cl A
Comp Sftwr-Spec Enterprs
|
$78.48
|
+0.90
1.16% |
$79.38
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403,544 176.99% of 50 DAV
50 DAV is 228,000
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$78.33 0.19%
|
10/22/2015
|
$66.65
|
PP = $68.95
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MB = $72.40
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Most Recent Note - 12/2/2015 5:36:35 PM
G - Posted another gain today on average volume for a best-ever close. Disciplined investors avoid chasing extended stocks. See the latest FSU analysis for more details and a new annotated graph.
>>> FEATURED STOCK ARTICLE : Another Gain on Average Volume to a New High Close - 12/2/2015 |
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C
A
S
I |
VBTX
-
NASDAQ
Veritex Holdings Inc
BANKING - Regional - Southwest Banks
|
$16.90
|
-0.20
-1.17% |
$17.14
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4,393 29.29% of 50 DAV
50 DAV is 15,000
|
$17.95 -5.85%
|
11/4/2015
|
$17.00
|
PP = $18.05
|
MB = $18.95
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Most Recent Note - 11/30/2015 5:38:14 PM
Y - Perched within close striking distance of its 52-week high. Found support above its 50 DMA line. Still has not produced the necessary gains above its pivot point backed by at least +40% above average volume needed to trigger a technical buy signal.
>>> FEATURED STOCK ARTICLE : Found Support This Week Above 50-Day Moving Average - 11/20/2015 |
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C
A
S
I |
NHTC
-
NASDAQ
Natural Health Trends
Cosmetics/Personal Care
|
$44.87
|
-1.59
-3.42% |
$47.75
|
267,591 63.26% of 50 DAV
50 DAV is 423,000
|
$55.45 -19.08%
|
10/23/2015
|
$42.12
|
PP = $44.85
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MB = $47.09
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Most Recent Note - 12/1/2015 1:05:25 PM
Y - Pulling back today. Near term support to watch is its 50 DMA line ($42.07). See the latest FSU analysis for more details and an annotated graph showing a valid secondary buy point.
>>> FEATURED STOCK ARTICLE : After Successful Test of 10-Week Average a Valid Secondary Buy Point Exists - 11/27/2015 |
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C
A
S
I |
|
|
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THESE ARE NOT BUY RECOMMENDATIONS!
Comments contained in the body of this report are technical
opinions only. The material herein has been obtained
from sources believed to be reliable and accurate, however,
its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed.
This site is not an investment advisor, hence it does
not endorse or recommend any securities or other investments.
Any recommendation contained in this report may not
be suitable for all investors and it is not to be deemed
an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to
the purchase or sale of any securities. All trademarks,
service marks and trade names appearing in this report
are the property of their respective owners, and are
likewise used for identification purposes only.
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