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AFTER MARKET UPDATE - FRIDAY, JULY 16TH, 2010
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Indices NYSE Nasdaq
DOW  -261.41 10,097.90 -2.52% Volume 1,491,717,420 +34% Volume 2,129,540,090 +10%
NASDAQ -70.03 2,179.05 -3.11% Advancers 612 20% Advancers 326 12%
S&P 500 -31.60 1,064.88 -2.88% Decliners 2,437 78% Decliners 2,353 85%
Russell 2000 -24.23 610.39 -3.82% 52 Wk Highs 65   52 Wk Highs 13  
S&P 600 -12.31 329.06 -3.61% 52 Wk Lows 29   52 Wk Lows 76  

Friday's Plunge Quickly Negated the Week's Gains

The major averages plunged on Friday after Citigroup (C -6.25%) and Bank of America (BAC -9.16%) released their latest quarterly results, meanwhile consumer confidence and consumer prices both fell. The losses erased what would have been another positive week on Wall Street. Volume was reported higher than Thursday's session on both exchanges due to options expirations. There were only 4 high-ranked companies from the CANSLIM.net Leaders List that made a new 52-week high and appeared on the CANSLIM.net BreakOuts Page, lower than the 16 issues that appeared on the prior session. Decliners trumped advancers by almost a 4-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and over a 7-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq exchange. New 52-week highs solidly outnumbered new 52-week lows on the NYSE but trailed on the Nasdaq exchange.  For the rally to have ongoing success it will be critical for a healthy crop of leaders to continue showing up hitting new 52-week highs.

The major averages ended slightly higher on Monday after spending most of the day trading between positive and negative territory ahead of Alcoa Inc's. (AA -3.97%) Q2 results. After Monday's closing bell, the largest US aluminum company kicked off earnings season and reported a profitable Q2 and said sales rose +22%. Stocks enjoyed hefty gains on Tuesday after the government said the trade deficit topped $1 trillion. Technically, it was encouraging to see the Dow Jones Industrial Average rally above its 50-day moving average (DMA) line and rise above a downward trendline. Tuesday's gain also helped the S&P 600 Small Cap Index rally above the April - June downward trendline which was shown on the graph included in Friday evening's commentary (read here). The benchmark S&P 500 Index is now challenging its 50 DMA line, yet it faces resistance at its short-term average and it also remains trading under its 200 DMA line. The Nasdaq Composite Index has rallied very near its 50 and 200 DMA lines which have now converged.  The NYSE Composite Index, which was noted in this commentary recently as the first major index to violate its 50 DMA line and the see its 50 and 200 DMA lines form a "death cross", rallied for its first close above its 50 DMA since May 3rd.

On Wednesday, the major averages ended mixed to slightly higher as they consolidated Tuesday's large move.The benchmark S&P 500 Index snapped a streak of 6 straight gains after retail sales fell last month and the Fed released the minutes of its latest meeting. The Commerce Department said retail sales fell -0.5% last month which topped the Street's estimate and followed a -1.1% decline in May. Most of the decline came from the ailing automobile sector, excluding auto dealers, demand fell -0.1% which matched the median estimate. Elsewhere, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of its latest meeting which showed a less than stellar economic outlook. Fed officials said the economy has “softened” which sparked concern of a double dip recession.

On Thursday, stocks erased earlier losses and closed near their intra-day highs as investor's digested a slew of important data: JP Morgan (JPM -3.61%) reported their latest quarterly result, weekly jobless claims and producer prices fell, Goldman Sachs (GS +0.65%) settled with the SEC for $550 million, BP (BP-4.68%) plugged the broken well, the Senate sent President Obama the largest financial regulatory bill since the Great Depression, and the latest read on the manufacturing industry was disappointing. It was somewhat encouraging to see the market shrug off earlier weakness and close near its intra-day highs even though the Nasdaq Composite Index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average snapped 7-day winning streaks.

Over the next few weeks, it will be very interesting to see how companies fared last quarter and, equally important, to see how the market reacts to the numbers. Analysts believe that Q2 earnings for S&P 500 companies rose +34%.

Looking forward, the window remains open for disciplined investors to carefully buy high-ranked stocks. Since the current rally began on July 1, the major averages have rallied on suspiciously light volume for the most part.  It is ideal to see volume expand as the major averages break above resistance and see a new batch of high-ranked leaders trigger fresh technical buy signals.  These latest improvements are helping to confirm this nascent rally and provide a reassurance that odds are more favorable for successful investing using the fact-based system.

PICTURED: The Dow Jones Industrial Average sank under its 50 DMA line on Friday after encountering resistance this week at its 200 DMA line.




Bank Index Dives Yet Again

The Retail Index ($RLX -3.31%) and financial shares had a negative influence as the Bank Index ($BKX -5.71%) and Broker/Dealer Index ($XBD -2.35%) erased a fair part of their recent gains.  The tech sector was zapped by unanimous losses for the Networking Index ($NWX -3.58%), Internet Index ($IIX -3.42%), Semiconductor Index ($SOX -3.30%), and the Biotechnology Index ($BTK -3.15%).  Energy-related shares were weak as the Oil Services Index ($OSX -2.97%) and Integrated Oil Index ($XOI -2.72%) both fell. Defensive groups offered no benefit to "safe haven" investors as the Healthcare Index ($HMO -3.29%) and Gold & Silver Index ($XAU -3.28%) also endured large losses.

Charts courtesy www.stockcharts.com

PICTURED: The Bank Index ($BKX -5.71%) was a standout decliner on Friday while Bank of America Corporation (BAC -9.16%) and Citigroup, Inc. (C -6.25%) shares dived. Although it started the week making encouraging progress above its 50-day moving average (DMA) line, the damaging loss caused the BKX to end the week back under its 50 and 200 DMA lines once again.


Industry Index Symbol Close Change % Change YTD % Change
Oil Services $OSX  173.00 -5.29 -2.97% -11.25%
Healthcare $HMO  1,421.98 -48.40 -3.29% -3.46%
Integrated Oil $XOI  945.36 -26.46 -2.72% -11.50%
Semiconductor $SOX  349.16 -11.93 -3.30% -2.99%
Networking $NWX  237.56 -8.83 -3.58% +2.81%
Internet $IIX  234.91 -8.31 -3.42% +0.45%
Broker/Dealer $XBD  101.60 -2.44 -2.35% -11.69%
Retail $RLX  390.58 -13.35 -3.31% -5.00%
Gold & Silver $XAU  167.39 -5.67 -3.28% -0.51%
Bank $BKX  47.06 -2.85 -5.71% +10.18%
Biotech $BTK  1,015.64 -33.04 -3.15% +7.80%


Short-Term Average - Important Support Level Put To Test

Thoratec Corp (THOR -$1.94 or -4.31% to $43.03) suffered a considerable loss today on light volume, just barely violating its 50-day moving average line amid widespread market weakness. Its recent low ($41.27 on 7/01/10) defines the next important chart support level to watch now. It struggled initially after breaking out from a choppy 5-week base with a considerable gain on 6/02/10 backed by above average volume. Then it posted a solid gain on 6/16/10 for a new high on above average volume, reconfirming the earlier technical buy signal.  On 6/16/10 it marked its $47.93 high, and its short-term average acted as support since it was last reviewed in this FSU section on 6/23/10 with an annotated graph under the headline "Medical Products Firm Showing Resilience."

Recent quarterly comparisons showed impressive acceleration in its sales revenues increases while earnings above the +25% minimum guideline satisfied the C criteria. Based on weakness it was dropped from the Featured Stocks list on 2/23/09, yet it has shown especially bullish action since its breakout on 3/05/10. It was mentioned long ago in a 12/15/08 interview on WBBM 780AM - (listen here) and it was featured in yellow in the 12/05/08 Mid-Day Breakouts Report (read here).  THOR had rebounded impressively after being featured in the past, then subsequently dropped from the CANSLIM.net Featured Stocks list on 2/2/2006.


Color Codes Explained :
Y - Better candidates highlighted by our staff of experts.
G - Previously featured in past reports as yellow but may no longer be buyable under the guidelines.

***Last / Change / Volume data in this table is the closing quote data***
Symbol/Exchange
Company Name
Industry Group
PRICE CHANGE
(%Change)
Day High Volume
(% DAV)
(% 50 day avg vol)
52 Wk Hi
% From Hi
Featured
Date
Price
Featured
Pivot Featured
Max Buy
AAPL - NASDAQ
Apple Inc
COMPUTER HARDWARE - Personal Computers  
$249.90 -1.55
-0.62%

$254.95

37,083,601
127.72% of 50 DAV
50 DAV is 29,036,000
$279.01
-10.43%
6/17/2010 $270.95 PP = $272.56
MB = $286.19
Most Recent Note - 7/16/2010 5:04:14 PM
G - Its 50 DMA line is now acting as resistance. Recent lows in the $242-243 area define important chart support to watch while the company's defective phone product fix competes with swirling headlines BP has finally plugged its leaking oil well. Disciplined investors ignore headlines and let technical analysis dictate their decision-making.
>>> The latest Featured Stock Update with an annotated graph appeared on 7/12/2010. Click here.

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ABV - NYSE
Comp De Bebidas Adr
FOOD and BEVERAGE - Beverages - Brewers  
$106.56 +0.13
0.12%

$107.00

888,436
118.38% of 50 DAV
50 DAV is 750,500
$109.33
-2.53%
6/29/2010 $104.74 PP = $109.33
MB = $114.80
Most Recent Note - 7/16/2010 12:41:35 PM
Y - This Brazil-based beverage firm is quietly perched within close striking distance of its 52-week high. It found support near its 50 DMA line recently and has not yet traded above its pivot point since featured in the 6/29/10 mid-day report (read here).
>>> The latest Featured Stock Update with an annotated graph appeared on 6/29/2010. Click here.

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BIDU - NASDAQ
Baidu Inc Ads
INTERNET - Internet Information Providers  
$73.53 -2.11
-2.79%

$75.70

10,377,710
71.65% of 50 DAV
50 DAV is 14,483,300
$82.29
-10.65%
7/14/2010 $75.03 PP = $78.59
MB = $82.52
Most Recent Note - 7/16/2010 5:05:46 PM
Y - Disciplined investors avoid the temptation to get in "early" and watch for a proper technical buy signal. Color code was changed to yellow with new pivot point cited based on 6/21/10 high after a proper double-bottom pattern of sufficient length.
>>> The latest Featured Stock Update with an annotated graph appeared on 7/14/2010. Click here.

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CRM - NYSE
Salesforce.Com Inc
INTERNET - Internet Software and Services  
$92.05 -3.94
-4.10%

$95.29

1,751,055
59.29% of 50 DAV
50 DAV is 2,953,600
$97.94
-6.01%
6/2/2010 $88.44 PP = $89.60
MB = $94.08
Most Recent Note - 7/16/2010 5:06:45 PM
G - Considerable loss today on light volume ended a streak of 11 consecutive gains.
>>> The latest Featured Stock Update with an annotated graph appeared on 7/15/2010. Click here.

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DECK - NASDAQ
Deckers Outdoor Corp
CONSUMER NON-DURABLES - Textile - Apparel Footwear  
$44.79 -1.52
-3.28%

$46.28

1,017,729
65.99% of 50 DAV
50 DAV is 1,542,200
$56.12
-20.18%
6/11/2010 $52.45 PP = $52.86
MB = $55.50
Most Recent Note - 7/16/2010 5:10:10 PM
G - Loss today leaves it -20% off its 52-week high and struggling below its 50 DMA line which has recently acted as resistance. Based on weak action it will be dropped from the Featured Stocks list tonight. Do not be confused, as the most recent Featured Price, Pivot Point and Max Buy levels have been adjusted to account for a stock split 3:1 effective as of 7/06/10.
>>> The latest Featured Stock Update with an annotated graph appeared on 7/1/2010. Click here.

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C A N S L I M   Daily Graphs Online Stock Checkup IBD Graphs
Symbol/Exchange
Company Name
Industry Group
PRICE CHANGE
(%Change)
Day High Volume
(% DAV)
(% 50 day avg vol)
52 Wk Hi
% From Hi
Featured
Date
Price
Featured
Pivot Featured
Max Buy
FFIV - NASDAQ
F 5 Networks Inc
INTERNET - Internet Software and Services  
$76.37 -2.33
-2.96%

$78.52

1,384,243
81.17% of 50 DAV
50 DAV is 1,705,400
$79.21
-3.59%
6/16/2010 $74.50 PP = $74.10
MB = $77.81
Most Recent Note - 7/16/2010 5:13:18 PM
Y - Pulled back today below its "max buy" level. Color code is changed to yellow. Prior highs in the $74-77 area may now serve as chart support levels above its 50 DMA line.
>>> The latest Featured Stock Update with an annotated graph appeared on 7/7/2010. Click here.

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MELI - NASDAQ
Mercadolibre Inc
INTERNET - Internet Software and; Services  
$58.10 -4.18
-6.71%

$60.85

1,172,067
122.58% of 50 DAV
50 DAV is 956,200
$62.46
-6.98%
5/13/2010 $54.21 PP = $55.85
MB = $58.64
Most Recent Note - 7/16/2010 5:14:56 PM
G - Gapped down today and suffered considerable loss with above average volume after it wedged to new 52-week high territory with quiet volume behind its recent gains.
>>> The latest Featured Stock Update with an annotated graph appeared on 6/30/2010. Click here.

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NEM - NYSE
Newmont Mining Corp
METALS and MINING - Gold  
$58.90 -1.80
-2.97%

$59.95

7,801,723
77.50% of 50 DAV
50 DAV is 10,066,800
$63.38
-7.07%
6/22/2010 $59.60 PP = $59.67
MB = $62.65
Most Recent Note - 7/16/2010 5:18:25 PM
Y - Pulling back on light volume this week and sinking under its pivot point again. Its 50 DMA and prior chart highs define support to watch. It is virtually clear of all overhead supply.
>>> The latest Featured Stock Update with an annotated graph appeared on 7/9/2010. Click here.

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ROVI - NASDAQ
Rovi Corp
COMPUTER SOFTWARE andamp; SERVICES - Security Software andamp; Services  
$42.02 -0.71
-1.66%

$42.74

569,101
38.19% of 50 DAV
50 DAV is 1,490,300
$43.67
-3.78%
6/3/2010 $38.70 PP = $40.16
MB = $42.17
Most Recent Note - 7/16/2010 5:22:32 PM
Y - Color code is changed to yellow while quietly consolidating under its "max buy" level and closing -3.8% off its 52-week high following volume-driven gains above prior resistance in the $40 area. Old highs define support above its 50 DMA line.
>>> The latest Featured Stock Update with an annotated graph appeared on 6/28/2010. Click here.

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THOR - NASDAQ
Thoratec Corp
HEALTH SERVICES - Medical Instruments and Supplies  
$43.03 -1.94
-4.31%

$44.95

490,599
45.65% of 50 DAV
50 DAV is 1,074,700
$47.93
-10.22%
6/3/2010 $44.38 PP = $45.35
MB = $47.62
Most Recent Note - 7/16/2010 5:23:00 PM
Y - Considerable loss on light volume led to a 50 DMA line violation today amid widespread market weakness. Recent low ($41.27 on 7/01/10) defines the next important chart support level.
>>> The latest Featured Stock Update with an annotated graph appeared on 7/16/2010. Click here.

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C A N S L I M   Daily Graphs Online Stock Checkup IBD Graphs
Symbol/Exchange
Company Name
Industry Group
PRICE CHANGE
(%Change)
Day High Volume
(% DAV)
(% 50 day avg vol)
52 Wk Hi
% From Hi
Featured
Date
Price
Featured
Pivot Featured
Max Buy
ULTA - NASDAQ
Ulta Salon Cosm & Frag
SPECIALTY RETAIL - Specialty Retail, Other  
$22.77 -0.53
-2.27%

$23.06

563,938
81.64% of 50 DAV
50 DAV is 690,800
$26.75
-14.88%
5/28/2010 $25.58 PP = $25.86
MB = $27.15
Most Recent Note - 7/16/2010 4:04:43 PM
G - Down today for a 3rd consecutive loss on light volume. Its 50 DMA line has acted as resistance recently. Its May - June chart lows in the $21 area define the next support level just above its 200 DMA line.
>>> The latest Featured Stock Update with an annotated graph appeared on 6/25/2010. Click here.

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VIT - NYSE
Vanceinfo Tech Inc Ads
COMPUTER SOFTWARE and SERVICES - Business Software and Services  
$25.00 -0.22
-0.87%

$25.26

434,728
64.55% of 50 DAV
50 DAV is 673,500
$26.90
-7.06%
7/8/2010 $25.20 PP = $26.58
MB = $27.91
Most Recent Note - 7/16/2010 4:05:56 PM
Y - Held its ground today after a positive reversal on the prior session. It has formed a handle on the right side of its 11-week cup shaped pattern now. It did not trigger a buy signal with respect to the pivot point cited after gapping up on 7/08/10, when it briefly matched its all-time high and appeared in the mid-day report (read here).
>>> The latest Featured Stock Update with an annotated graph appeared on 7/8/2010. Click here.

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Subscriber Questions:

July 8, 2010

Ken and Adam,

I am an avid, devout reader of your daily reports (paying member).  I also subscribe to IBD. I am baffled as to how yesterday 7/7 could have marked a follow-through day on day 4 of latest rally attempt per your After Market Update.  Which day last week was day 1 of the rally attempt? Which precise index marked the follow through? Thanks a lot.

Pratish

 
Ken's Response:

 July 16, 2010

Dear Pratish,
 
Thanks for asking a great question!  Adam pointed this out in the market commentary and I am fairly sure we repeated the analysis concerning it over the span of a few days' commentaries.

Since you are a member with FULL access to all of our past reports, you can see the Thursday, July 1st commentary which stated - "Some might say that Thursday was Day 1 of a new rally attempt due to the fact that the major averages closed in the upper half of their intra-day ranges, recovering from steep losses in the first half of the session." http://premium.canslim.net/premium/amr.aspx?D=070110

Then, headlines on 7/07/10 announced - "Indices Post Solid Gains Confirming Renewed Rally Effort - Stocks scored a follow-through day (FTD) on the fourth day of their latest rally attempt as volume, a critical component of institutional sponsorship, topped Tuesday's levels while advancers trumped decliners by more than a 3-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq exchange and by nearly a 6-to-1 ratio on the NYSE." http://premium.canslim.net/premium/amr.aspx?D=070710

Reviewing the subject further, a "Day 1" is normally an up day, but not always!  Pages 221-223 of the new 4th edition of How To Make Money in Stocks include several examples of past market bottoms, and you can confirm this from those examples.

This service is designed to help investors with the day-to-day application of the winning investment system. While covering key criteria on an ongoing basis, we are always doing our best to guide those of you who want to follow the investment system's rules!  The expert analysis and CANSLIM.net reports are time-saving tools that will continue to assist you in following the proven rules-based tactics for maximizing gains and minimizing losses.
 
We want you to understand and get the most from CANSLIM.net's services. If you have any additional questions or suggestions on how we can improve our services or make things any more clear, we gladly welcome your input. 
Please let me know if you have any other feedback by filling out the inquiry form.

Kenneth J. Gruneisen
Founder & Contributing Writer for CANSLIM.net
www.canslim.net


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