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AFTER MARKET UPDATE - MONDAY, JANUARY 28TH, 2013
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DOW |
-14.05 |
13,881.93 |
-0.10% |
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Volume |
646,847,030 |
-7% |
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Volume |
1,797,590,520 |
+1% |
|
NASDAQ |
+4.59 |
3,154.30 |
+0.15% |
|
Advancers |
1,294 |
42% |
|
Advancers |
1,404 |
54% |
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S&P 500 |
-2.78 |
1,500.18 |
-0.18% |
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Decliners |
1,715 |
55% |
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Decliners |
1,072 |
41% |
|
Russell 2000 |
+1.47 |
906.71 |
+0.16% |
|
52 Wk Highs |
330 |
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|
52 Wk Highs |
205 |
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S&P 600 |
-0.64 |
507.83 |
-0.13% |
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52 Wk Lows |
16 |
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52 Wk Lows |
12 |
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Mixed Session for Market Averages; Quick Apple Review
Kenneth J. Gruneisen - Passed the CAN SLIM® Master's Exam
The major averages ended mixed and little changed on Monday. The volume totals were reported mixed, lighter on the NYSE yet slightly higher on the Nasdaq exchange. Breadth was mixed as decliners led advancers by a 9-7 margin on the NYSE, yet advancing issues maintained a lead by a 7-5 margin on the Nasdaq exchange. The total number of stocks hitting new 52-week highs easily outnumbered new 52-week lows on the NYSE and on the Nasdaq exchange. There were 98 high-ranked companies from the CANSLIM.net Leaders List making new 52-week highs and appearing on the CANSLIM.net BreakOuts Page, down from the prior session total of 116 stocks. There were gains for only 3 of the 11 high-ranked companies currently included on the Featured Stocks Page.
The major averages toggled between gains and losses throughout the session as investors digest mixed economic reports and corporate earnings reports. Looking at the data, durable goods orders and manufacturing in the Dallas region topped expectations, while pending home sales fell 4.3% from the prior month's reading, declining significantly more than estimates. December durable goods orders were better than expected, rising 3% more than expected.
Overall, six of the 10 sectors on the S&P ended lower, led by declines in material stocks. Steel producers AK Steel Holding Corp (AKS -7.43%) and U.S. Steel Corp (X -3.30%) both received an analyst downgrade. On the earnings front, Caterpillar Inc (CAT +1.96%) was up following their quarterly profit tally. Yahoo! Inc (YHOO -0.29%) was flat ahead of their scheduled earnings release after the closing bell.
Turning to fixed income markets, Treasuries are lower along the curve. The benchmark 10-year note is down 5/32 to yield 1.97% and the 30-year bond is off 7/32 to yield 3.15%.
Friday marked the S&P 500 Index's highest close since December 10, 2007. The latest rally has produced a few action worthy candidates meeting all of the fact-based investment system's criteria. Selectivity and discipline are required, as always. Investors may consider new buying efforts in stocks meeting all key criteria, as the market's (M criteria) confirmed uptrend has been comprised by great leadership (stocks hitting new 52-week highs) in the broader market. Widespread gains helped all of the major averages blast higher, and the benchmark S&P 500 Index is perched at its best level in more than five years.
Watch for an announcement via email concerning the next WEBCAST. The webcast will also be available via an updated link highlighted at the top of the Premium Member Homepage.
PICTURED 1: The Nasdaq Composite Index is perched -1.3% off its 9/21/12 high. Many have noted the weakness in the tech sector due to leader Apple Inc (AAPL) which has created a drag lately on the tech-heavy index. We suggest members take time to revisit the prior coverage CANSLIM.net published on the much-talked-about company including - "Ken's Mailbag Q&A 4/26/12 - Why is Apple Inc (AAPL) not on the Featured Stocks list?" On Thursday, April 26, 2012 we answered this question from a member concerning the very popular tech stock, explaining why it was not highlighted in a favorable manner due to concerns with respect to the fact-based system's guidelines.
As illustrated by the annotated graph below, the company's fundamentals have deteriorated further since it was last noted in the mid-day report on 10/8/2012 11:54 AM - "Violated its 50-day moving average (DMA) line and closed near the session low with a loss on above average volume on the prior session, then it gapped down today suffering more damage while slumping under its April highs. Noted in the 9/27/12 mid-day report - 'Encountered distributional pressure this week, retreating from its all-time high. Reported earnings +20% on +23% sales for the Jun '12 quarter, sequentially decelerating and below the +25% minimum earnings guideline of the fact-based system. Companies currently on the 'Featured Stocks' list are the most ideal candidates fitting the fact-based investment system's guidelines before becoming too heavily owned by the institutional crowd.'"
PICTURED 2: Apple Inc (AAPL) is now -36% off its 52-week high and slumping deep below its 50-day and 200-day moving average (DMA) lines which recently converged. It has a great deal of influence on the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index due to its heavy weighting as a percentage of the index.
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Kenneth J. Gruneisen started out as a licensed stockbroker in August 1987, a couple of months prior to the historic stock market crash that took the Dow Jones Industrial Average down -22.6% in a single day. He has published daily fact-based fundamental and technical analysis on high-ranked stocks online for two decades. Through FACTBASEDINVESTING.COM, Kenneth provides educational articles, news, market commentary, and other information regarding proven investment systems that work in good times and bad.
Comments contained in the body of this report are technical opinions only and are not necessarily those of Gruneisen Growth Corp. The material herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable and accurate, however, its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Our firm, employees, and customers may effect transactions, including transactions contrary to any recommendation herein, or have positions in the securities mentioned herein or options with respect thereto. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors and it is not to be deemed an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the purchase or sale of any securities. |
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Retail, Defensive, and Most Tech Groups Lost Groups
Kenneth J. Gruneisen - Passed the CAN SLIM® Master's Exam
The Retail Index ($RLX -1.01%) pulled back and created a drag on the major averages on Monday. Defensive shares also drifted lower as the Gold & Silver Index ($XAU -1.07%) and Healthcare Index ($HMO -0.55%) also lost ground. Financial shares were mixed as the Bank Index ($BKX -0.42%) edged lower and the Broker/Dealer Index ($XBD +0.34%) posted a small gain. The tech sector saw modest weakness in the Internet Index ($IIX -0.61%) and the Biotechnology Index ($BTK -0.29%), meanwhile the Networking Index ($NWX -0.06%) ended flat and the Semiconductor Index ($SOX +0.17%) posted a small gain. The Integrated Oil Index ($XOI +0.18%) and Oil Services Index ($OSX +0.54%) edged higher as energy-related shares had a slightly positive bias.
Charts courtesy www.stockcharts.com
PICTURED: The 3-year chart of the Bank Index ($BKX -0.42%) above shows the influential index approaching 2-year highs.
| Oil Services |
$OSX |
246.32 |
+1.32 |
+0.54% |
+11.88% |
| Healthcare |
$HMO |
2,683.55 |
-14.76 |
-0.55% |
+6.74% |
| Integrated Oil |
$XOI |
1,332.57 |
+2.35 |
+0.18% |
+7.31% |
| Semiconductor |
$SOX |
416.16 |
+0.72 |
+0.17% |
+8.36% |
| Networking |
$NWX |
247.62 |
-0.15 |
-0.06% |
+9.30% |
| Internet |
$IIX |
358.00 |
-2.19 |
-0.61% |
+9.48% |
| Broker/Dealer |
$XBD |
102.49 |
+0.35 |
+0.34% |
+8.65% |
| Retail |
$RLX |
705.30 |
-7.17 |
-1.01% |
+8.00% |
| Gold & Silver |
$XAU |
149.21 |
-1.61 |
-1.07% |
-9.90% |
| Bank |
$BKX |
53.89 |
-0.23 |
-0.42% |
+5.09% |
| Biotech |
$BTK |
1,675.29 |
-4.83 |
-0.29% |
+8.29% |
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Featured Stock Recently Wedging Higher Without Great Volume Behind Gains
Kenneth J. Gruneisen - Passed the CAN SLIM® Master's Exam
Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX -$0.09 or -0.14% to $65.55) is extended from a sound base, thus not buyable under the fact-based system's guidelines now. It finished with a small loss today. It recently rallied further above its "max buy" level without great volume conviction. It was last shown in this FSU section on 1/10/13 with an annotated graph under then headline "Light Volume Behind Gains Into New High Ground". We cautioned as it rallied above its pivot point for another new 52-week high that volume was below the +40% above average guideline which is the bare minimum threshold needed to trigger a proper technical buy signal. It had rallied near its pivot with great volume, however the recent action may be considered "wedging" which does not have the look of aggressive and sustainable buying demand form the institutional crowd. That is not to say it cannot rally further, but historic studies have suggested that volume is normally heavy behind the best winning stocks as they began their most substantial rallies in price.
Prior articles reminded members that in the Certification they teach a tactic called "pyramiding" that allows investors to let the market action dictate how heavily they position themselves in fresh buy candidates. The wedging action of late is not as bullish as a solid burst of volume behind gains into new high territory would be, meanwhile, investors employing the pyramiding technique may have accumulated positions.
Quarterly earnings increases (C criteria) have been strong and well above the +25% guideline. A downturn in FY '07 and '08 earnings (A criteria) has been followed by a strong earnings rebound in recent years. The number of top-rated funds owning its shares rose from 818 in Mar '12 in to 899 in Dec '12, a reassuring trend concerning the I criteria. Its current Up/Down Volume Ratio of 1.9 is also an unbiased indication that its shares have been under accumulation over the past 50 days. Although it is of some concern that the Medical - Ethical Drugs group's Relative Strength rating is weak, there have been a couple of strong performers in the group which offer reassuring signs concerning the L criteria.
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Color Codes Explained :
Y - Better candidates highlighted by our
staff of experts.
G - Previously featured
in past reports as yellow but may no longer be buyable under the
guidelines.
***Last / Change / Volume data in this table is the closing quote data***
Symbol/Exchange
Company Name
Industry Group |
PRICE |
CHANGE
(%Change) |
Day High |
Volume
(% DAV)
(% 50 day avg vol) |
52 Wk Hi
% From Hi |
Featured
Date |
Price
Featured |
Pivot Featured |
|
Max Buy |
CELG
-
NASDAQ
Celgene Corp
DRUGS - Drug Manufacturers - Major
|
$98.95
|
-0.81
-0.81% |
$99.43
|
3,130,948
85.14% of 50 DAV
50 DAV is 3,677,500
|
$100.12
-1.17%
|
12/11/2012
|
$82.24
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PP = $81.34
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MB = $85.41
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Most Recent Note - 1/24/2013 2:59:35 PM
G - Hovering in a tight range near its all-time high, very extended from its prior base. See the recent Featured Stock Update (FSU) analysis for the latest annotated graph and more details under the headline, "Rule Suggests Letting Explosive Winners Have Time For Greater Gains - Thursday, January 17, 2013 ".
>>> The latest Featured Stock Update with an annotated graph appeared on 1/17/2013. Click here.
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C
A N
S L
I M
|
CFNL
-
NASDAQ
Cardinal Financial Corp
BANKING - Regional - Southeast Banks
|
$16.35
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+0.34
2.12% |
$16.36
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206,393
92.26% of 50 DAV
50 DAV is 223,700
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$16.90
-3.25%
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12/3/2012
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$15.20
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PP = $16.31
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MB = $17.13
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Most Recent Note - 1/24/2013 3:04:06 PM
Y - Found support at its 50 DMA line recently. That important short-term average acted as support throughout its ongoing ascent. Subsequent losses leading to a damaging violation and a slump below the recent low ($15.74 on 1/18/13) would raise concerns and trigger technical sell signals.
>>> The latest Featured Stock Update with an annotated graph appeared on 1/15/2013. Click here.
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C
A N
S L
I M
|
CMCSA
-
NASDAQ
Comcast Corp Cl A
MEDIA - CATV Systems
|
$39.57
|
-0.19
-0.48% |
$39.91
|
9,767,412
87.37% of 50 DAV
50 DAV is 11,178,900
|
$40.28
-1.76%
|
12/3/2012
|
$37.08
|
PP = $38.06
|
|
MB = $39.96
|
Most Recent Note - 1/24/2013 3:05:36 PM
Y - Color code is changed to yellow while quietly consolidating just under its "max buy" level. Perched near its 52-week high with no resistance remaining due to overhead supply. Prior highs in the $38 area define initial support to watch on pullbacks.
>>> The latest Featured Stock Update with an annotated graph appeared on 1/11/2013. Click here.
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C
A N
S L
I M
|
KORS
-
NYSE
Michael Kors Hldgs Ltd
RETAIL - Apparel Stores
|
$57.75
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-0.33
-0.57% |
$60.00
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5,135,101
139.54% of 50 DAV
50 DAV is 3,679,900
|
$58.62
-1.48%
|
1/23/2013
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$54.98
|
PP = $58.72
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|
MB = $61.66
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Most Recent Note - 1/28/2013 12:14:10 PM
Y - Touched a new 52-week high today but reversed into the red. Recently tallied gains with ever-increasing volume as it approached its 52-week high and pivot point. Disciplined investors may watch for volume-driven gains above the pivot point to trigger a proper technical buy signal before taking action. See the latest FSU analysis under the headline, "High-Ranked Luxury Apparel Firm Worthy For Watchlist - Wednesday, January 23, 2013", for more details and an annotated weekly graph.
>>> The latest Featured Stock Update with an annotated graph appeared on 1/23/2013. Click here.
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C
A N
S L
I M
|
MIDD
-
NASDAQ
Middleby Corp
MANUFACTURING - Diversified Machinery
|
$141.58
|
-0.42
-0.30% |
$144.70
|
123,860
144.19% of 50 DAV
50 DAV is 85,900
|
$143.18
-1.12%
|
10/8/2012
|
$118.46
|
PP = $122.67
|
|
MB = $128.80
|
Most Recent Note - 1/25/2013 4:16:32 PM
G - Rallied for a 6th consecutive gain today and further into new all-time high territory. Prior mid-day reports noted - "Disciplined investors may watch closely for sell signals if holding it and giving it a chance to produce more climactic gains. Its 50-day moving average (DMA) line defines near-term chart support to watch where any violation would trigger a technical sell signal." Earnings +23% on +18% sales for the Sep '12 quarter, below the +25% minimum earnings guideline (C criteria), raised concerns.
>>> The latest Featured Stock Update with an annotated graph appeared on 1/14/2013. Click here.
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C
A N
S L
I M
|
Symbol/Exchange
Company Name
Industry Group |
PRICE |
CHANGE
(%Change) |
Day High |
Volume
(% DAV)
(% 50 day avg vol) |
52 Wk Hi
% From Hi |
Featured
Date |
Price
Featured |
Pivot Featured |
|
Max Buy |
N
-
NYSE
Netsuite Inc
DIVERSIFIED SERVICES - Business/Management Services
|
$70.54
|
-0.02
-0.03% |
$71.51
|
165,243
47.05% of 50 DAV
50 DAV is 351,200
|
$70.80
-0.37%
|
12/12/2012
|
$64.75
|
PP = $67.12
|
|
MB = $70.48
|
Most Recent Note - 1/25/2013 4:18:10 PM
G - Gain today lifted it above its "max buy" level and its color code is changed to green. Recent gains above its pivot point were marked by sub par volume, still leaving questions concerning the level of institutional buying demand lurking.
>>> The latest Featured Stock Update with an annotated graph appeared on 1/18/2013. Click here.
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C
A N
S L
I M
|
NP
-
NYSE
Neenah Paper Inc
CONSUMER NON-DURABLES - Paper and Paper Products
|
$31.01
|
-0.65
-2.05% |
$31.66
|
112,292
152.78% of 50 DAV
50 DAV is 73,500
|
$32.57
-4.79%
|
1/25/2013
|
$31.80
|
PP = $31.76
|
|
MB = $33.35
|
Most Recent Note - 1/25/2013 6:49:34 PM
Y - Its "negative reversal" for a loss on heavy volume after hitting a new 52-week high today was noted as is a worrisome sign of distributional pressure. It was highlighted in yellow with pivot point cited based on its 3/19/12 high plus 10 cents in the mid-day report while noted - "A strong close above its pivot point backed by at least +40% above average volume may clinch a technical buy signal. Recent gains lacked great volume conviction while wedging above previously stubborn resistance in the $31 area. Quarterly earnings increases above the +25% guideline satisfy the C criteria. Annual earnings (A criteria) have been improving steadily after a worrisome downturn in FY '08. Its small supply of 15.9 million shares could contribute to greater price volatility." See the latest FSU analysis for more details and annotated daily and weekly graphs.
>>> The latest Featured Stock Update with an annotated graph appeared on 1/25/2013. Click here.
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C
A N
S L
I M
|
NSR
-
NYSE
Neustar Inc
TELECOMMUNICATIONS - Diversified Communication Serv
|
$44.68
|
+0.42
0.95% |
$44.77
|
240,422
59.45% of 50 DAV
50 DAV is 404,400
|
$45.49
-1.78%
|
12/11/2012
|
$41.85
|
PP = $41.41
|
|
MB = $43.48
|
Most Recent Note - 1/24/2013 2:55:30 PM
G - Volume totals have been cooling while consolidating well above its 50 DMA line defining chart support to watch. After hitting a new 52-week high on 1/17/13 there was a worrisome "negative reversal".
>>> The latest Featured Stock Update with an annotated graph appeared on 1/16/2013. Click here.
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C
A N
S L
I M
|
RAX
-
NYSE
Rackspace Hosting Inc
INTERNET - Internet Software and; Services
|
$78.40
|
-0.53
-0.67% |
$79.95
|
701,721
61.40% of 50 DAV
50 DAV is 1,142,800
|
$81.36
-3.64%
|
12/18/2012
|
$71.88
|
PP = $70.10
|
|
MB = $73.61
|
Most Recent Note - 1/24/2013 1:57:26 PM
G - Powering to a new all-time high today with above average volume behind a considerable gain. It is extended from the previously noted base. Company will announce its fourth quarter 2012 financial results on Tuesday, February 12, 2013 after the close. See the latest FSU analysis for more details and a new annotated graph.
>>> The latest Featured Stock Update with an annotated graph appeared on 1/22/2013. Click here.
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C
A N
S L
I M
|
RNF
-
NYSE
Rentech Nitrogen Ptnr Lp
CHEMICALS - Agricultural Chemicals
|
$46.72
|
+1.35
2.98% |
$47.05
|
431,900
134.42% of 50 DAV
50 DAV is 321,300
|
$48.19
-3.05%
|
11/1/2012
|
$39.11
|
PP = $40.15
|
|
MB = $42.16
|
Most Recent Note - 1/24/2013 6:43:36 PM
G - Encountering more distributional pressure today with higher volume behind its loss. Prior highs in the $40 area define near-term support to watch. See the latest FSU analysis for more details and a new annotated graph.
>>> The latest Featured Stock Update with an annotated graph appeared on 1/24/2013. Click here.
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C
A N
S L
I M
|
Symbol/Exchange
Company Name
Industry Group |
PRICE |
CHANGE
(%Change) |
Day High |
Volume
(% DAV)
(% 50 day avg vol) |
52 Wk Hi
% From Hi |
Featured
Date |
Price
Featured |
Pivot Featured |
|
Max Buy |
VRX
-
NYSE
Valeant Pharmaceuticals
DRUGS - Drug Manufacturers - Other
|
$65.55
|
-0.09
-0.14% |
$65.94
|
818,236
53.83% of 50 DAV
50 DAV is 1,520,100
|
$65.69
-0.21%
|
12/20/2012
|
$60.24
|
PP = $61.21
|
|
MB = $64.27
|
Most Recent Note - 1/24/2013 5:58:48 PM
G - It is extended from a sound base and posted another small gain today, rallying further above its "max buy" level without great volume conviction.
>>> The latest Featured Stock Update with an annotated graph appeared on 1/28/2013. Click here.
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C
A N
S L
I M
|
|
|
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THESE ARE NOT BUY RECOMMENDATIONS!
Comments contained in the body of this report are technical
opinions only. The material herein has been obtained
from sources believed to be reliable and accurate, however,
its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed.
This site is not an investment advisor, hence it does
not endorse or recommend any securities or other investments.
Any recommendation contained in this report may not
be suitable for all investors and it is not to be deemed
an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to
the purchase or sale of any securities. All trademarks,
service marks and trade names appearing in this report
are the property of their respective owners, and are
likewise used for identification purposes only.
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You may opt-out of receiving report notifications
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