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AFTER MARKET UPDATE - MONDAY, DECEMBER 28TH, 2015
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DOW |
-23.90 |
17,528.27 |
-0.14% |
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Volume |
597,801,890 |
+56% |
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Volume |
1,207,917,610 |
+84% |
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NASDAQ |
-7.50 |
5,040.99 |
-0.15% |
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Advancers |
1,183 |
38% |
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Advancers |
1,018 |
35% |
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S&P 500 |
-4.49 |
2,056.50 |
-0.22% |
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Decliners |
1,916 |
62% |
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Decliners |
1,873 |
65% |
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Russell 2000 |
-6.54 |
1,148.21 |
-0.57% |
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52 Wk Highs |
53 |
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52 Wk Highs |
44 |
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S&P 600 |
-2.87 |
680.38 |
-0.42% |
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52 Wk Lows |
25 |
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52 Wk Lows |
54 |
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Weak Commodity-Linked Groups Led Major Averages Lower
Kenneth J. Gruneisen - Passed the CAN SLIM® Master's Exam
Stocks finished modestly lower on Monday. The Dow was off 23 points to 17528. The S&P 500 fell 4 points to 2056. The NASDAQ was down 7 points to 5040. Volume totals were up from the abbreviated session totals of Thursday but still lighter than average on the NYSE and the Nasdaq exchange. Breadth was negative as decliners led advancers by a 3-2 margin on the NYSE and 9-5 the Nasdaq exchange. There were 16 high-ranked companies from the Leaders List that made new 52-week highs and were listed on the BreakOuts Page, down from 22 on the prior session. There were gains for only 2 of the 9 high-ranked companies currently on the Featured Stocks Page. New 52-week highs outnumbered new 52-week lows on the NYSE and but new lows outnumbered new highs on the Nasdaq exchange. Charts used courtesy of www.stockcharts.com
PICTURED: The Dow Jones Industrial Average is near its 50-day and 200-day moving average (DMA) lines and ended -4.5% off its record high. New leadership (stocks hitting new highs) has been thin while the major averages (M criteria) have avoided a deeper correction and sputtered to start a new rally. The major averages retreated mildly to start another holiday shortened week. With no major earnings reports and very little in the way of economic news, trading was 40% lower than the 30-day average on the NYSE. On the data front, a release on manufacturing activity in the Fed’s Dallas district showed a 20% decline in December, well below the 7% fall projected by analysts. In corporate news, Chimerex (CMRX -81.4%) plunged after an unsuccessful trial of its new antiviral drug. Disney (DIS +1.3%) edged higher after the studio’s “Star Wars” release became the fastest movie in history to reach the $1 billion mark. Amazon (AMZN +1.9%) rose after announcing that its Amazon Prime membership grew by 3 million last week. Six out of ten sectors in the S&P 500 declined on Monday. Energy shares led the losses in sympathy with lower oil prices while consumer discretionary and telecom stocks outperformed. The treasury curve flattened amid a $26 billion 2-year note auction that fetched the highest yield since 2010. The benchmark 10-year note added 3/32 to yield 2.23%. In commodities, NYMEX WTI crude was off 3.5% to $36.77/barrel while COMEX gold slid 0.6% to $1070.50/ounce. Treasuries were higher at the long end of the yield curve. The benchmark 10-year was up 3/32 to yield 2.24%. In commodities, NYMEX WTI crude advanced 1.8% to $38.18/barrel. COMEX gold rose 0.7% to $1077.20/ounce. The Featured Stocks Page includes most current notes with headline links for access to more detailed letter-by-letter analysis including price/volume graphs annotated by our experts. See the Premium Member Homepage for archives to all prior pay reports.
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Kenneth J. Gruneisen started out as a licensed stockbroker in August 1987, a couple of months prior to the historic stock market crash that took the Dow Jones Industrial Average down -22.6% in a single day. He has published daily fact-based fundamental and technical analysis on high-ranked stocks online for two decades. Through FACTBASEDINVESTING.COM, Kenneth provides educational articles, news, market commentary, and other information regarding proven investment systems that work in good times and bad.
Comments contained in the body of this report are technical opinions only and are not necessarily those of Gruneisen Growth Corp. The material herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable and accurate, however, its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Our firm, employees, and customers may effect transactions, including transactions contrary to any recommendation herein, or have positions in the securities mentioned herein or options with respect thereto. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors and it is not to be deemed an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the purchase or sale of any securities. |
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Commodity-Linked Groups Fell Hard; Retail Index Rose
Kenneth J. Gruneisen - Passed the CAN SLIM® Master's Exam
The Oil Services Index ($OSX -2.96%) and the Integrated Oil Index ($XOI -2.21%) both finished solidly lower while the Gold & Silver Index ($XAU -4.24%) was a standout decliner on Monday. The Retail Index ($RLX+0.47%) posted a modest gain, but the Bank Index ($BKX-0.47%) and the Broker/Dealer Index ($XBD -0.26%) created a drag on the major indices. The tech sector had a slightly negative bias as the Biotechnology Index ($BTK -0.34%), Networking Index ($NWX -0.38%) and the Semiconductor Index ($SOX -0.39%) each ended slightly lower on the session.Charts courtesy www.stockcharts.com
PICTURED: The Integrated Oil Index ($XOI -2.21%) is consolidating above prior lows.
| Oil Services |
$OSX |
158.34 |
-4.83 |
-2.96% |
-24.91% |
| Integrated Oil |
$XOI |
1,082.12 |
-24.46 |
-2.21% |
-19.73% |
| Semiconductor |
$SOX |
671.75 |
-2.64 |
-0.39% |
-2.20% |
| Networking |
$NWX |
377.90 |
-1.45 |
-0.38% |
+5.58% |
| Broker/Dealer |
$XBD |
179.19 |
-0.47 |
-0.26% |
-2.95% |
| Retail |
$RLX |
1,287.41 |
+5.96 |
+0.47% |
+24.66% |
| Gold & Silver |
$XAU |
45.78 |
-2.03 |
-4.25% |
-33.44% |
| Bank |
$BKX |
73.78 |
-0.35 |
-0.47% |
-0.65% |
| Biotech |
$BTK |
3,807.72 |
-12.89 |
-0.34% |
+10.72% |
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Consolidation Was Brief Following Prior Breakaway Gap
Kenneth J. Gruneisen - Passed the CAN SLIM® Master's Exam
Stamps.Com Inc (STMP -$0.69 or -0.61% to $111.92 ) is perched near its 52-week high after volume-driven gains. Its 50-day moving average (DMA) line ($94.39) and recent lows define near-term support to watch. Disciplined investors avoid chasing extended stocks. Its latest consolidation was too brief to be considered a sound base, yet it stubbornly held its ground and showed bullish action since last appearing in this FSU section with an annotated graph on 12/11/15 under the headline, "Perched Near 52-Week High After More Bullish Action". STMP was highlighted in yellow with pivot point cited based on its 8/19/15 high plus 10 cents in the 11/06/15 mid-day report (read here). Nearly 8 times average volume was behind its considerable "breakaway gap". Breakaway gaps are one noted exception where chasing a stock more than +5% above prior highs is permitted under the fact-based investment system guidelines, but risk increases the further above prior highs one makes any purchases. Bullish action came after it reported earnings +61% on +37% sales revenues for the Sep '15 quarter, well above the +25% minimum guideline (C criteria), continuing its strong earnings history matching the fact-based investment system's winning models. Earnings rose +44%, +76%, and 61% in the Mar, Jun, and Sep '15 quarters, respectively, versus the year ago periods. Sales revenues rose +32%, +41%, and +37% during that same span. It has earned an Earnings Per Share Rating of 99, putting it in the top 1% of all publicly traded stocks based on its earnings history over the past 5 years. The Retail - Internet firm has other strong leaders in the group confirming the L criteria, as the group has an A+ Group Relative Strength Rating. Its annual earnings (A criteria) history has shown strong and steady increases since FY '09 following a couple of flat years. The number of top-rated funds owning its shares rose from 232 in Dec '14 to 316 in Sep '15, a reassuring sign concerning the I criteria. Its small supply of only 16.6 million shares outstanding (S criteria) can contribute to greater price volatility in the event of institutional buying or selling. Charts courtesy www.stockcharts.com
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Color Codes Explained :
Y - Better candidates highlighted by our
staff of experts.
G - Previously featured
in past reports as yellow but may no longer be buyable under the
guidelines.
***Last / Change / Volume data in this table is the closing quote data***
Symbol/Exchange
Company Name
Industry Group |
PRICE |
CHANGE
(%Change) |
Day High |
Volume
(% DAV)
(% 50 day avg vol) |
52 Wk Hi
% From Hi |
Featured
Date |
Price
Featured |
Pivot Featured |
|
Max Buy |
SFNC
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NASDAQ
Simmons First Natl Cp A
BANKING - Regional - Southeast Banks
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$52.54
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+0.51
0.98% |
$52.56
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115,668
62.86% of 50 DAV
50 DAV is 184,000
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$58.75
-10.57%
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10/22/2015
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$50.13
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PP = $48.98
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MB = $51.43
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Most Recent Note - 12/28/2015 6:27:02 PM
G - Still sputtering below its 50 DMA line ($53.57). The longer it lingers below that important short-term average the worse its outlook gets.
>>> FEATURED STOCK ARTICLE : Slide Below Prior Lows and 50-Day Average Raised More Serious Concerns - 12/22/2015 |
View all notes |
Set NEW NOTE alert |
Company Profile |
SEC
News |
Chart |
Request a new note
C
A
S
I |
MANH
-
NASDAQ
Manhattan Associates Inc
COMPUTER SOFTWARE and SERVICES - Technical and System Software
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$68.95
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-0.34
-0.49% |
$69.35
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457,364
87.28% of 50 DAV
50 DAV is 524,000
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$77.75
-11.32%
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10/21/2015
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$69.18
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PP = $69.91
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MB = $73.41
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Most Recent Note - 12/23/2015 6:47:46 PM
G - Latest slump below its 50 DMA line and below recent low ($69.85 on 12/11/15) raised more serious concerns and triggered a technical sell signal. See the latest FSU analysis for more details and a new annotated graph.
>>> FEATURED STOCK ARTICLE : Falters and Slumps Into Prior Base Raising Concerns - 12/23/2015 |
View all notes |
Set NEW NOTE alert |
Company Profile |
SEC
News |
Chart |
Request a new note
C
A
S
I |
HAWK
-
NASDAQ
Blackhawk Network Inc
DIVERSIFIED SERVICES - Business/Management Services
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$45.15
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-0.17
-0.38% |
$45.29
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219,066
47.01% of 50 DAV
50 DAV is 466,000
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$48.40
-6.71%
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11/25/2015
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$47.63
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PP = $47.07
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MB = $49.42
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Most Recent Note - 12/28/2015 6:22:08 PM
G - Sputtering near its 50 DMA line which acted as support after damaging losses on volume triggered a technical sell signal. Disciplined investors will note that a proper buy signal was not triggered since first featured in yellow in the 11/25/15 mid-day report.
>>> FEATURED STOCK ARTICLE : Hovering Near Highs But Not Showing Fresh Signs of Accumulation - 12/15/2015 |
View all notes |
Set NEW NOTE alert |
Company Profile |
SEC
News |
Chart |
Request a new note
C
A
S
I |
STMP
-
NASDAQ
Stamps.com Inc
INTERNET - Internet Software and Services
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$111.92
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-0.69
-0.61% |
$113.20
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238,217
71.11% of 50 DAV
50 DAV is 335,000
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$113.61
-1.49%
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11/6/2015
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$100.75
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PP = $88.97
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MB = $93.42
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Most Recent Note - 12/28/2015 6:30:37 PM
G - Perched near its 52-week high after volume-driven gains. Its 50 DMA line ($94.39) and recent lows define near-term support to watch. Disciplined investors avoid chasing extended stocks. See the latest FSU analysis for more details and a new annotated graph.
>>> FEATURED STOCK ARTICLE : Consolidation Was Brief Following Prior Breakaway Gap - 12/28/2015 |
View all notes |
Set NEW NOTE alert |
Company Profile |
SEC
News |
Chart |
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C
A
S
I |
ULTI
-
NASDAQ
Ultimate Software Group
INTERNET - Internet Software and Services
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$194.43
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+0.34
0.18% |
$194.95
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137,187
51.96% of 50 DAV
50 DAV is 264,000
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$216.27
-10.10%
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10/28/2015
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$204.38
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PP = $195.28
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MB = $205.04
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Most Recent Note - 12/28/2015 6:28:46 PM
G - Still sputtering below its 50 DMA line, and a rebound above it is needed for its outlook to improve. Subsequent deterioration below recent lows ($188) would raise greater concerns.
>>> FEATURED STOCK ARTICLE : Slumped Back Below 50-Day Moving Average Line Raising Concerns - 12/21/2015 |
View all notes |
Set NEW NOTE alert |
Company Profile |
SEC
News |
Chart |
Request a new note
C
A
S
I |
Symbol/Exchange
Company Name
Industry Group |
PRICE |
CHANGE
(%Change) |
Day High |
Volume
(% DAV)
(% 50 day avg vol) |
52 Wk Hi
% From Hi |
Featured
Date |
Price
Featured |
Pivot Featured |
|
Max Buy |
LXFT
-
NYSE
Luxoft Holding Inc Cl A
Comp Sftwr-Spec Enterprs
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$77.38
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-1.23
-1.56% |
$78.41
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109,374
46.34% of 50 DAV
50 DAV is 236,000
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$80.64
-4.04%
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10/22/2015
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$66.65
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PP = $68.95
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MB = $72.40
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Most Recent Note - 12/24/2015 10:49:15 AM
G - Volume totals have still been cooling while consolidating near all-time highs. Disciplined investors avoid chasing extended stocks. Its 50 DMA line ($73) and prior lows define near-term support to watch on pullbacks.
>>> FEATURED STOCK ARTICLE : Consolidating Well Above 50-Day Moving Average Line - 12/18/2015 |
View all notes |
Set NEW NOTE alert |
Company Profile |
SEC
News |
Chart |
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C
A
S
I |
PANW
-
NYSE
Palo Alto Networks
Computer Sftwr-Security
|
$176.64
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-2.09
-1.17% |
$179.61
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1,382,007
84.99% of 50 DAV
50 DAV is 1,626,000
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$200.55
-11.92%
|
12/14/2015
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$179.20
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PP = $200.65
|
|
MB = $210.68
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Most Recent Note - 12/28/2015 6:24:46 PM
Y - Encountered more distributional pressure today with a 6th consecutive loss testing its 50 DMA line. Since featured in the 12/14/15 mid-day report it has not produced the volume-driven gains for new highs needed to trigger a new technical buy signal.
>>> FEATURED STOCK ARTICLE : Perched Within Striking Distance of Highs Again - 12/14/2015 |
View all notes |
Set NEW NOTE alert |
Company Profile |
SEC
News |
Chart |
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C
A
S
I |
VBTX
-
NASDAQ
Veritex Holdings Inc
BANKING - Regional - Southwest Banks
|
$16.03
|
-0.29
-1.78% |
$16.59
|
21,281
112.01% of 50 DAV
50 DAV is 19,000
|
$17.95
-10.70%
|
11/4/2015
|
$17.00
|
PP = $18.05
|
|
MB = $18.95
|
Most Recent Note - 12/28/2015 12:42:26 PM
G - Recent lows and its 200 DMA line define important near-term support in the $15.50 area where subsequent violations would raise greater concerns. The 50 DMA line acted as resistance recently, and a rebound above that important short-term average is needed for its outlook to improve. See the latest FSU analysis for more details and an annotated graph.
>>> FEATURED STOCK ARTICLE : 50-Day Moving Average Acted as Resistance After 200 DMA Test - 12/24/2015 |
View all notes |
Set NEW NOTE alert |
Company Profile |
SEC
News |
Chart |
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C
A
S
I |
NHTC
-
NASDAQ
Natural Health Trends
Cosmetics/Personal Care
|
$39.84
|
-6.05
-13.18% |
$45.97
|
710,192
171.13% of 50 DAV
50 DAV is 415,000
|
$55.45
-28.15%
|
10/23/2015
|
$42.12
|
PP = $44.85
|
|
MB = $47.09
|
Most Recent Note - 12/28/2015 12:02:53 PM
G - Down considerably today undercutting the recent low ($41.51 on 12/14/15) and raising more serious concerns. Faces resistance due to overhead supply up through the $55 level.
>>> FEATURED STOCK ARTICLE : Prior Resistance and 50-Day Moving Average Line Acting as Support - 12/16/2015 |
View all notes |
Set NEW NOTE alert |
Company Profile |
SEC
News |
Chart |
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C
A
S
I |
|
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THESE ARE NOT BUY RECOMMENDATIONS!
Comments contained in the body of this report are technical
opinions only. The material herein has been obtained
from sources believed to be reliable and accurate, however,
its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed.
This site is not an investment advisor, hence it does
not endorse or recommend any securities or other investments.
Any recommendation contained in this report may not
be suitable for all investors and it is not to be deemed
an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to
the purchase or sale of any securities. All trademarks,
service marks and trade names appearing in this report
are the property of their respective owners, and are
likewise used for identification purposes only.
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