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AFTER MARKET UPDATE - THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 4TH, 2010
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Indices NYSE Nasdaq
DOW  -268.37 10,002.18 -2.61% Volume 1,483,203,520 +40% Volume 2,894,210,550 +21%
NASDAQ -65.48 2,125.43 -2.99% Advancers 273 9% Advancers 385 14%
S&P 500 -34.17 1,063.11 -3.11% Decliners 2,840 90% Decliners 2,338 83%
Russell 2000 -20.98 589.68 -3.44% 52 Wk Highs 37   52 Wk Highs 14  
S&P 600 -10.26 314.08 -3.16% 52 Wk Lows 16   52 Wk Lows 42  

Downdraft Continues As Widespread Losses End Latest Rally Attempt

Stocks got whacked on Thursday sending all of the major averages below Monday's lows as the dollar rallied. Volume was heavier than the prior session on the NYSE and Nasdaq exchange which signaled large institutions were aggressively selling stocks. Decliners trumped advancers by over a 7-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and over a 6-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq exchange. There were only 3 high-ranked companies from the CANSLIM.net Leaders List that made a new 52-week high and appeared on the CANSLIM.net BreakOuts Page, lower than the 10 issues that appeared on the prior session. New 52-week highs outnumbered new 52-week lows on the NYSE but trailed on the Nasdaq exchange.


Stocks and commodities got smacked as the dollar rallied after concern spread that the global economic recovery may slow. Before Thursday's opening bell, the Labor Department reported that US jobless claims unexpectedly rose last week and concern spread that growing sovereign debt may derail the recovery. The euro plunged to its lowest level since May 2009 as the dollar soared well above its longer term 200 day moving average line. Lackluster bond auctions in Portugal and Spain triggered the sell off and led many to question the underlying health of the European Union. In other news, the European Central Bank (ECB) held rates steady at a record low of 1%. ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet said he is “confident” that Greece is moving in the right direction as it tries to curb its ballooning deficit but did not address the broader concerns.

So far, over half of the companies in the S&P 500 have released their Q4 results and the vast majority topped analysts estimates. Barring some unforeseen event, the S&P 500 is on track to snap a record nine quarter earnings slump as profits are expected to surge over +70% in the last three months of 2009. However, the market has sold off sharply since earnings season began which suggests large institutions are not happy with the results. 




Broad Selling Sends Stocks Lower

The bears showed up and sent all the leading industry groups lower as the dollar rallied. The Gold & Silver Index ($XAU -5.33%) led the way down, followed by losses from the Semiconductor Index ($SOX -4.44%) and Bank Index ($BKX -3.94%). Energy-related shares lost ground as the Oil Services Index ($OSX -3.92%) and Integrated Oil Index ($XOI -3.63%) slid. The Broker/Dealer Index ($XBD -3.75%), Biotechnology Index ($BTK -2.55%) and Networking Index ($NWX -2.44%) all ended with steep losses. The Internet Index ($IIX -2.43%), Healthcare Index ($HMO -2.37%) and Retail Index ($RLX -1.73%) also ended in the red.

Charts courtesy www.stockcharts.com


PICTURED: The Gold & Silver Index ($XAU -5.33%) suffered a big loss after encountering resistance near its longer term 200 DMA line.


Industry Index Symbol Close Change % Change YTD % Change
Oil Services $OSX  191.11 -9.24 -4.61% -1.95%
Healthcare $HMO  1,416.65 -44.06 -3.02% -3.82%
Integrated Oil $XOI  1,001.48 -40.77 -3.91% -6.25%
Semiconductor $SOX  312.53 -15.22 -4.64% -13.16%
Networking $NWX  222.29 -5.98 -2.62% -3.80%
Internet $IIX  217.54 -5.94 -2.66% -6.98%
Broker/Dealer $XBD  108.78 -4.57 -4.03% -5.45%
Retail $RLX  392.19 -9.16 -2.28% -4.60%
Gold & Silver $XAU  146.42 -8.34 -5.39% -12.97%
Bank $BKX  44.21 -1.99 -4.31% +3.51%
Biotech $BTK  973.26 -24.94 -2.50% +3.30%


Gap Down and Waning EPS Rank Raise Concerns

ArcSight, Inc. (ARST -$1.81 or -7.32% to $22.93) gapped down today, trading near its December lows and sinking toward its 200-day moving average (DMA) line. It would need to rebound above its 50 DMA line for its outlook to improve. Meanwhile, further deterioration below its prior lows or 200 DMA line would trigger additional sell signals. Distributional pressure negated its latest breakout. In the 1/21/10 Featured Stock Update (FSU) section (read here) we cautioned that its "close under its 12/31/09 close could prove to be a more ominous sign."

On January 4, 2010 it had gapped up and triggered a technical buy signal as it blasted above its latest pivot point. However, it failed to follow through with additional gains, then losses with above average volume negated its breakout and led to a close back in its prior base, raising concerns.  In addition to the recent technical weakness, its Earnings Per Share (EPS) rank has fallen to 76 from 84 when it appeared in this FSU section on 1/04/10 under the headline "Breakout With Triple Average Volume Triggers Fresh Buy Signal."  The Computer Software - Security firm has continued putting up solid sales revenues and earnings results since first featured in yellow at $19.91 in the 9/01/09 mid-day report with an annotated daily graph (read here).  However, its waning EPS rank of late suggests that on a relative basis it has been lagging while other companies have been showing more explosive earnings growth during the current earnings season.  ARST needs more time to potentially form a new sound base.  Meanwhile, its weak action and market conditions (M criteria) leave disciplined investors waiting for a follow through day before any new buying efforts are justifiable under the investment system guidelines. 


Color Codes Explained :
Y - Better candidates highlighted by our staff of experts.
G - Previously featured in past reports as yellow but may no longer be buyable under the guidelines.

***Last / Change / Volume quote data in this table corresponds with the timestamp on the note***
 
Symbol/Exchange
Company Name
Industry Group
Last Chg. Vol
% DAV
Date  Featured Price Featured Latest Pivot Point
Featured
Status
Latest Max Buy Price
ARST -

$22.93 -1.81 569,223
118% DAV
483,600
12/22/2009
(Date Featured)
$25.94
(Price Featured)
PP = $27.20 G
MB = $28.56
Most Recent Note - 2/4/2010 5:00:44 PM
G - Gapped down today, trading near its December lows and sinking toward its 200 DMA line. It would need to rebound above its 50 DMA line for its outlook to improve. ARST was first featured in yellow at $19.91 in the 9/01/09 mid-day report with an annotated daily graph (read here).
>>> The latest Featured Stock Update with an annotated graph appeared on 2/4/2010. click here.
C A  S  I  |  News | Chart | SEC View all notes Alert me of new notes Company Profile
BIDU - NASDAQ
Baidu Inc Ads
INTERNET - Internet Information Providers
$440.86 -8.92 1,541,287
85% DAV
1,816,900
1/13/2010
(Date Featured)
$431.25
(Price Featured)
PP = $426.75 G
MB = $448.09
Most Recent Note - 2/4/2010 5:01:49 PM
G - Closed lower on below average volume. Still trading above its 50 DMA line and its prior chart highs.
>>> The latest Featured Stock Update with an annotated graph appeared on 2/3/2010. click here.
C A  S  I  |  News | Chart | SEC View all notes Alert me of new notes Company Profile
CACC - NASDAQ
Credit Acceptance Corp
FINANCIAL SERVICES - Credit Services
$44.00 -1.49 103,622
183% DAV
56,500
9/29/2009
(Date Featured)
$33.48
(Price Featured)
PP = $37.10 G
MB = $38.96
Most Recent Note - 2/4/2010 5:02:49 PM
G - Down for its 4th consecutive loss on above average volume, a sign of more damaging distribution. Recently noted as "Extended from any sound base", the high-ranked Financial firm remains well above its 50 DMA line. On 1/25/10 the company announced the pricing of $250 Million Senior Secured Notes.
>>> The latest Featured Stock Update with an annotated graph appeared on 1/28/2010. click here.
C A  S  I  |  News | Chart | SEC View all notes Alert me of new notes Company Profile
CRM - NYSE
Salesforce.com Inc
INTERNET - Internet Software & Services
$62.43 -3.19 2,949,298
166% DAV
1,775,400
12/18/2009
(Date Featured)
$67.32
(Price Featured)
PP = $67.82 G
MB = $71.21
Most Recent Note - 2/4/2010 5:03:39 PM
G - Gapped down today and closed below its recent chart lows in the $63 area. It would need to rebound above its 50 DMA line for its outlook to improve.
>>> The latest Featured Stock Update with an annotated graph appeared on 1/27/2010. click here.
C A  S  I  |  News | Chart | SEC View all notes Alert me of new notes Company Profile
GMCR - NASDAQ
Green Mtn Coffee Roastrs
FOOD & BEVERAGE - Processed & Packaged Goods
$82.68 -3.07 751,962
49% DAV
1,524,300
12/28/2009
(Date Featured)
$77.49
(Price Featured)
PP = $76.50 G
MB = $80.33
Most Recent Note - 2/4/2010 5:04:31 PM
G - Holding its ground stubbornly as it remains perched near its all-time highs. Recent chart lows in the $78 area are an important support level to watch now.
>>> The latest Featured Stock Update with an annotated graph appeared on 2/2/2010. click here.
C A  S  I  |  News | Chart | SEC View all notes Alert me of new notes Company Profile
ISRG - NASDAQ
Intuitive Surgical Inc
HEALTH SERVICES - Medical Appliances & Equipment
$321.20 -11.04 567,159
111% DAV
510,800
1/22/2010
(Date Featured)
$340.40
(Price Featured)
PP = $314.00 G
MB = $329.70
Most Recent Note - 2/4/2010 5:05:29 PM
G - Loss today on average volume. Trading below its "max buy" level. ISRG was featured again most recently in the 1/22/10 mid-day report (read here), returning after some time off the Featured Stocks list. Its annual earnings history (the A criteria) has been very impressive. ISRG has rebounded impressively from its March low ($84.86) and may be on course for its all-time high ($359 in 2007). Notes outlined technical deterioration before and when it was last dropped from the Featured Stocks list on 6/10/08. ISRG traded up more than 13-fold since first featured in yellow in CANSLIM.net reports in the summer of 2004.
>>> The latest Featured Stock Update with an annotated graph appeared on 1/22/2010. click here.
C A  S  I  |  News | Chart | SEC View all notes Alert me of new notes Company Profile
PEGA - NASDAQ
Pegasystems Inc
COMPUTER SOFTWARE & SERVICES - Business Software & Services
$35.58 -0.77 288,293
156% DAV
184,500
1/4/2010
(Date Featured)
$34.00
(Price Featured)
PP = $36.19 G
MB = $38.00
Most Recent Note - 2/4/2010 5:06:13 PM
G - Gapped down on above average volume as it trades near its prior chart highs. Wider than usual intra-day price swings in recent days were noted as a sign of uncertainty. Found support at its 50 DMA line after 2 big losses completely negated its 1/27/10 breakout. Its recent chart lows near $32.50 help define important technical support, where violations would trigger more worrisome sell signals. Negative market conditions (M criteria) are currently an overriding concern prompting great caution, since a follow-through day is still needed to confirm a new rally. After a hiatus from the Featured Stocks list, PEGA was featured again in the January 2010 issue of CANSLIM.net News (read here).
>>> The latest Featured Stock Update with an annotated graph appeared on 1/25/2010. click here.
C A  S  I  |  News | Chart | SEC View all notes Alert me of new notes Company Profile

THESE ARE NOT BUY RECOMMENDATIONS!  Comments contained in the body of this report are technical opinions only. The material herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable and accurate, however, its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. This site is not an investment advisor, hence it does not endorse or recommend any securities or other investments. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors and it is not to be deemed an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the purchase or sale of any securities. All trademarks, service marks and trade names appearing in this report are the property of their respective owners, and are likewise used for identification purposes only.

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Kenneth J. Gruneisen founded Gruneisen Growth Corp. (2003), which prior to May 11, 2015, operated CANSLIM.net and CANSLIM.com both under license from Data Analysis Inc. / Investor's Business Daily. Kenneth has passed the CAN SLIM® Master's Exam. Gruneisen Growth Corp. now continues over two decades of fact based market analysis via FactBasedInvesting.com.

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