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Finds Support And Rallies - Wednesday, August 16, 2006

One of the critical characteristics of successful investing is knowing when to sell. CANSLIM oriented investors are best served when they buy based on the combination of strong fundamentals and technicals, then sell based on the technicals. The reason is because fundamentals often tend to lag a stock's technical condition and come to light later to help explain the technical chart action after the fact.

Privatebancorp Inc. (PVTB $1.43 or +3.01% to $46.07) gapped higher today and posted a gain, but it was ultimately a day that ended with a below average volume total. This stock was first featured in the August 2006 edition of the CANSLIM.net News (read here) at $47.00. Two days earlier, on July 28th, 2006 this stock blasted out of an approximately 4-month flat base on more than three times normal turnover and triggered a technical buy signal. This issue appeared in the report while it was trading below its maximum buy price of $48.17, a level 5% above the pivot. Shortly thereafter, this stock pulled back and fell below its prior chart highs and pivot point, but losses were mostly on average or below average volume as it tested support near its 50-day moving average (DMA) line. That pullback was also not 7% below this issue's pivot point and, as a result, did not trigger a technical sell signal. Healthy stocks rarely fall under their pivot by more than 7%., so it is when losses exceed that threshold that concerns rise and the risk of greater deterioration becomes more serious.  In this case, after finding support above its 50 DMA, the stock turned around and rose back above its pivot point.  It would be encouraging to see volume begin to swell as this issue moves to new high territory.  Disciplined investors would avoid chasing it above its maximum buy price.

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PVTB - Banking On Impressive Action - Monday, July 31, 2006

Privatebancorp Inc. 

- Kenneth J. Gruneisen   

Ticker Symbol: PVTB (NASDAQ)

Industry Group: Regional - Midwest Banks

Shares Outstanding:  21,200,000

Price: $47.00 4:00PM ET

Day's Volume: 342,700 7/31/2006 4:00PM ET

Shares in Float:  17,400,000

52 Week High: $47.17 7/31/2006 4:00PM ET

50-Day Average Volume: 117,500

Up/Down Volume Ratio: 1.3

Pivot Point: $45.88  5/09/2006 high plus .10

Pivot Point +5% = Max Buy Price: $48.17

Web Address: http://www.privatebancorp.com

 

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CANSLIM.net Profile: PrivateBancorp, Inc. operates as the holding company for The PrivateBank and Trust Company, The PrivateBank-St. Louis, The PrivateBankMichigan, and a mortgage banking subsidiary, The PrivateBank Mortgage Company in the United States. The company, through its subsidiaries, provides private banking and wealth management services primarily to affluent individuals, professionals, entrepreneurs, and their business interests. Its banking subsidiaries offer a range of lending products including lines of credit for working capital; term loans for equipment and other investment purposes; letters of credit; real estate loan products; construction loans for residential and commercial developments; loans to secure funds for personal investment; loans to acquire personal assets; home equity loans; and construction loan portfolio that comprises single residential properties, multi-family properties, and commercial projects. The company has increased its earnings by +21%, +14%, +17% and +29% in the past four quarterly financial reports for Sep, Dec '05, Mar, June '06 respectively. The annual earnings history (the “A”) has shown solid increases in the past three years, a 37% Growth Rate, which helps reassure investors of strength in the underlying fundamentals of the company. Return on Equity of 15% falls a bit under the +17% guideline. Management owns an impressive +18% of the float which helps align their interests with those of their shareholders. The Bank-Midwest group is now ranked 90th of 197 Industry Groups, whereas stocks hailing from groups in the top quartile are preferred.  However, there are enough bank stocks presently acting well and confirming that there is decent group leadership to fulfill the "L" criteria.

What to Look For and What to Look Out For: Now that PVTB has reached new high territory on above average volume and has decisively risen above its pivot point, odds favor that further gains are on the horizon. It is important not to buy any stock extended too far above its pivot point. Investors should always look out for a failed breakout, so if PVTB fails to follow through and rolls back into the prior base it would give rise to concern. If dropping into its prior base to close under its May 8th, 2006 high close of $45.54, that would technically negate the recent breakout. Then the odds of a sustained rise and meaningful gains would be greatly reduced. Always limit losses per the 7-8% sell rule, and never hold a stock if it falls more than that much from your purchase price. Prior CANSLIM.net notes "C just below guidelines" were included because its three most recent comparisons were not all at least +25% above the year ago period. The latest comparison was above that minimum guideline, but flatter comparisons in the coming quarters would be likely to prompt disappointment.

Technical Analysis: On Friday July 28th, 2006 this stock blasted out of an approximately 4-month flat base. Volume was more than three times normal turnover accompanying the breakout which indicated institutional buyers participated in the breakout. The last two full weeks showed solid gains on above average volume.  Since the beginning of the year there were only 9 weeks of above average volume in this issue. It is very positive to see volume gradually dry up when a stock builds out a longer base. This is precisely what occurred, and as a result, it has a solid foundation that may help pave the way for further gains. It is also encouraging to see that this stock has cleared all remaining overhead supply on above average volume which bodes well for the bulls.