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Natural Gas Services Firm Closes Strong After Breakout With Volume - Monday, June 09, 2008

A very important technical tool that savvy investors have learned to incorporate in their technical analysis is the 50-day moving average (DMA) line.  The 50 DMA line plays a pivotal role relative to a stock's price.  If the price of a stock is above its 50 DMA then odds are that its 50 DMA will act as formidable support.  Conversely, if the price is below its 50 DMA then the moving average acts as resistance.  Healthy stocks sometimes trade under their 50 DMA lines briefly, but usually a strong candidate will promptly bounce and repair a 50 DMA violation. When a stock has violated its 50 DMA line and then lingers beneath it, the stock's outlook gets worse and worse as it spends a greater period of time trading under that important short-term average line. Once the 50 DMA line starts sloping downward it should also be acknowledged that the stock has been struggling for a while, and it might be time to reduce exposure and look for places to put that money to work in stronger buy candidates.

Natural Gas Services Grp (NGS +$1.78 or +6.10% to $30.96) rose to a new high today with a considerable gain backed by very heavy volume, nearly two and a half times its average daily volume.  The oil and gas equipment firm was first featured on Wednesday, May 21, 2008 in the CANSLIM.net Mid Day Breakouts Report (read here) with the following note, "Y - A second consecutive gain on above average volume has it rallying to new 52-week highs today after a 4-week consolidation above its 50 DMA and prior chart highs in the $24 area. Multiple gains on above average volume in February helped it blast above its January highs, rising from a 6-week cup without a handle. High-ranked leader in the Oil & Gas - Machinery/Equip group (good L criteria) with a good annual and quarterly earnings growth history. Small supply of shares (the S criteria) could contribute to greater volatility. Good quarterly and annual earnings increases meet the C & A criteria, however sales revenues increases have been below the +25% guideline." 

NGS negatively reversed after its early gains on 5/21/08 prompted that day's appearance in yellow, and it closed that session under its pivot point, with the turnabout for a loss raising concerns. However, it stayed well above its 50 DMA and there was not great technical damage caused by its subsequent losses which came on lighter volume. Now that it has produced a solid gain above its pivot point the stock is clear of all resistance due to overhead suppy.  In a bullish market environment, it would be more tempting to take action; however the market needs to produce a follow-through day and convincing leadership must return before disciplined investors can have the right reassurances that odds are in their favor.

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