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Computer Services Firm Leaps to a New High - Friday, January 12, 2007

Group action plays a very important role, and experienced investors learn that they can increase their odds of picking a great winner by always focusing their buying efforts in the market's leading groups.  The "L" criteria in CAN SLIM(TM) tells us to choose leading companies in leading industry groups, thus it is suggested that investors choose from the top quartile of the 197 Industry Groups (listed in the paper most days on page B4). A classic example of the success enjoyed by many CANSLIM.net readers usually starts when an investor reads a CANSLIM.net report and buys a featured stock before it has risen above the pivot point by greater than 5%.  After a stock breaks out above its pivot point, there is only a +5% window that investors have to purchase the stock under the proper guidelines. Once a stock rises above the "maximum buy price" the risk of a shake out balloons, meaning that even a normal retracement in the stock might force you to employ the 7-8% loss cutting rule.  Much can be told by the stock's daily action in the weeks and months that follow a breakout. Typically, a light volume and orderly pullback suggests that the bulls remain in control.  However, high volume pullbacks that violate support paint a totally different picture.

Infosys Technologies Ltd. (INFY 1.84 or 3.07% to $58.06) jumped out of a two month base with gains today driven by nearly twice its average daily volume. This stock enjoyed a very healthy run since it made its first appearance in the Wednesday, September 1, 2004 CANSLIM.net Mid day Breakouts Report. After building a fresh 2-month flat base, this issue appeared in this afternoon's edition of the CANSLIM.net Mid Day Breakouts Report (read here) with a $56.99 pivot point. This stock sports a healthy Earnings Per Share (EPS) rating of 97 which means that its earnings history is better than 97% of all other publicly traded companies.  The stock resides in the Computer-tech Services group which is currently ranked 32nd out of 197 Industry Groups covered in the paper, placing it in the much coveted top quartile - satisfying the "I" criteria.

Whenever a stock clears resistance with gains backed by heavy volume, the odds are greatly skewed in favor of even further gains. However, if this issue rolls over and falls back into its prior base, any close back under its best prior high closes prompts concern. In this case, there is its $56.50 high close of November 15th, 2006 to consider first, while a close back under its January 3rd, 2007 close of $55.82 would fully negate the past two days' bullish action, which would technically be a sign that even further consolidation may be in order.  As always, selling whenever a stock falls more than 7-8% from your purchase price is the smartest defense.

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Extreme Volatility On Earnings Report - Tuesday, July 12, 2005

This issue first appeared in CANSLIM.net's Mid-Day Breakouts Report at $73.36 on February 16, 2005 (see here).  The stock rallied over +5% then spent the next few weeks basing.  In early-April this issue suffered heavy distribution as it violated its 50 DMA and later gapped below its 200 DMA. The prudent investor would have simply moved to the sidelines after the price fell 7%-8% below the pivot point, exercising the proper selling discipline.  A low was established at $56.23 on April 28th.  It also completed a secondary offerinfg of additional shares on May 25th.  Since then, the issue worked steadily up to challenge its old chart highs.  

INFY was featured again as "noteworthy" CANSLIM.net's Mid-Day Breakouts Report on June 30th, 2005 at $77.77 (see here) as it was approaching its old highs.  It showed up in the Featured Stocks Update section of CANSLIM.net's After-Market Update on July 1st (see here) under the headline of "Indian IT Firm Lingering Near 52-Week Highs." In that report we noted that "one key concern could be that this company is in the Computer - Tech Services group which presently ranks 109th on IBD's 197 Industry Groups list.  It is continually emphasized that to be considered a true leadership area in the market (the L in CANSLIM) investors should be looking for companies in the top quartile of groups."  The accompanying DailyGraph noted (in the lower righthand corner) that the company was slated to report earnings on July 12, 2005.

The company held a conference call as it reported earnings, and while the numbers were in line with consensus estimates, it did lower its '06 guidance.  It is important to note that volume and volatility commonly increase on earnings news announcements. While today's action may appear as heavy selling or distribution, its ability to stay well above its 50 DMA is encouraging, and its ability to close in the upper portion of the day's trading range was another impressive sign.  However, it is paramount to always cut your losses at 7%-8%.  This issue clearly has some work to do to repair the technical damage of today's loss on high volume, and one can probably find better looking, fresh purchase candidates without such a blemish on their charts.



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