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Following 200 DMA Breach Losses Were Quickly Magnified - Wednesday, November 05, 2008

A very important technical tool that savvy investors have learned to incorporate in their technical analysis is the 200-day moving average (DMA) line.  The 200 DMA line plays a pivotal role relative to a stock's price, and institutional investors (which concerns the I criteria) often support a stock they already own an interest in by buying more shares when that stock falls near its long-term average. When they do not step up and show support, a stock's deterioration below its 200 DMA can considered a technical sell signal.  When a technical breakdown or violation takes place on heavy volume, it raises more serious concerns that large influential investors are rushing for the exits.

Icon Plc (ICLR -$1.45 or -5.45% to $25.34) is not a currently featured stock, however it may be worth another look at this Medical/Dental - Services firm for any important lessons that can be learned from a previous market leader that has flashed multiple technical sell signals including a 200 DMA violation with losses on heavy volume. This stock made one more rally attempt following its last appearance in this Featured Stock Update section with an annotated graph on Wednesday, September 10, 2008 under the headline Encouraging Rally Above 50 Day Moving Average Line", but that rally fell short of prior highs. Soon thereafter, ICLR encountered additional distribution days, triggering more worrisome technical sell signals that were noted in CANSLIM.net's ongoing reports (see the view all notes link). 

It was dropped from the Featured Stocks list on 10/06/08 after gapping down that day and trading below its 200-day moving average line. Damaging losses in early-October were marked by above average volume, which was indicative of distributional selling from institutional investors.  Very negative action in the broader market (the M criteria) subsequently forced it to trade as much as -48.4% lower in less than a month's time.  ICLR had traded up as much as +96.79% in the 17 months after it was first featured in yellow with an annotated graph on Tuesday, April 24, 2007 in the CANSLIM.net Mid Day Breakouts Report (read here).

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Encouraging Rally Above 50 Day Moving Average Line - Wednesday, September 10, 2008

A very important technical tool that savvy investors have learned to incorporate in their technical analysis is the 50-day moving average (DMA) line.  The 50 DMA line plays a pivotal role relative to a stock's price.  If the price of a stock is above its 50 DMA then odds are that its 50 DMA will act as formidable support.  Institutional owners will often add to their existing holdings in a security if they still believe the company has a healthy outlook, but concerns are raised after a stock has violated its 50 DMA line.  Often a healthy stock stays perfectly above its 50 DMA line, however it is not uncommon for stocks to briefly violate their 50 DMA lines.  Support should promptly arrive and repair the technical violation with conviction, and when it does not, the odds start favoring more serious declines.   

Icon Plc (ICLR +$2.24 or +5.78% to $40.99) remains trading under the clear upward trendline connecting a few of its prior chart lows, however its solid gain today was encouraging.  It violated its upward trendline along with its 50 DMA line last week, triggering technical sell signals. Today's gain with above average volume helped it repair the latest 50 DMA breach, which looks like a hint that institutional support was stepping up near that important short-term average. It blasted to a new high and was noted in yellow again back on May 1, 2008 following a positive reversal on 4/29/08 after reporting earnings per share +33% and sales +48%It has traded up more than +90% since first featured in yellow at $45.50 in 4/24/2007 CANSLIM.net Mid-Day Breakouts Report (read here).

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Healthy Action Continues Above 50-Day Moving Average - Wednesday, July 09, 2008

A very important technical tool that savvy investors have learned to incorporate in their technical analysis is the 50-day moving average (DMA) line.  The 50 DMA line plays a pivotal role relative to a stock's price.  If the price of a stock is above its 50 DMA then odds are that its 50 DMA will act as formidable support.  Conversely, if the price is below its 50 DMA then the moving average acts as resistance.  Healthy stocks sometimes trade under their 50 DMA lines briefly, but usually a strong candidate will promptly bounce and repair a 50 DMA violation. When a stock has violated its 50 DMA line and then lingers beneath it, the stock's outlook gets worse and worse as it spends a greater period of time trading under that important short-term average line. Once the 50 DMA line starts sloping downward it should also be acknowledged that the stock has been struggling for a while, and it might be time to reduce exposure and look for places to put that money to work in stronger buy candidates.

Icon Plc Ads (ICLR +$1.47 or +1.96% to $76.37) posted a third consecutive gain on light volume.  This high-ranked leader has shown strong quarterly sales revenues and earnings increases.  Market conditions (the M criteria) still argue against new buying efforts until at least one of the major averages produces a follow-through day. ICLR's prior gains above the May 21, 2008 high of $75.37 lacked volume conviction, and during its consolidation, it recently has been finding support at its 50 DMA line. It has held up well, but ICLR has not made great price progress since its April 29, 2008 breakout above a $71.22 pivot point. This stock was first featured at $45.50 on Tuesday, April 24, 2007 in the CANSLIM.net Mid Day Breakouts Report (read here). 

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Upward Trendline Being Tested Now - Wednesday, March 19, 2008

An upward trendline, by definition, develops as a stock steadily appreciates over an extended period of time.  During that period the stock vacillates between the lower and upper boundaries of trendlines which can be drawn connecting a series of recent highs or lows.  In order to ensure the overall health of the stock, the lower boundary should not be violated.  Technically, if the lower boundary is violated this signals that the trend is deteriorating and bears are gaining control, making the odds start to favor the possibility of further downside testing. 

Icon Plc Ads (ICLR -$1.26 or -2.06% to $62.35) closed with a loss on light volume, sinking further under its 50-day moving average line ($64.71 now) on Wednesday. Volume, an important indicator of institutional action, was below average which helped soften the damage. The stock is currently testing the lower boundary of its well-defined upward trendline. As long as the stock continues trading above that important level then it still may arguably deserve the benefit of the doubt. However, deterioration should be acknowledged if this trendline is breached, as a definitive technical sell signal would be triggered which would have bearish ramifications. Disciplined investors know to act quickly when stocks trigger technical sell signals and begin to exhibit lackluster action. Meanwhile, ICLR is only -12.3% below its 52-week high which means there is not a great deal of overhead supply to act as resistance, but it has some work to do to repair the recent damage. It sports a healthy Earnings Per Share (EPS) rating of 88 and a solid Relative Strength (RS) rating of 96. The company resides in the Medical Dental-services group which is currently ranked 47th of out the 197 Industry Groups list, placing it in the much coveted top quartile of industry groups needed to help satisfy the L criteria. The number of top-rated funds with an ownership interest has risen from 59 funds in March '07 to 84 funds as of December '07, a compelling sign of increasing institutional interest (the I criteria).

This stock was first featured on Tuesday, April 24, 2007 in the CANSLIM.net Mid Day Breakouts Report (read here) with a $44.70 pivot point and a $46.94 maximum buy price. Since then, the stock has traded up nearly +60%. After making some initial headway it went through a correction under its 50 DMA line before breaking out again on September 18, 2007, which prompted its appearance in yellow in that day's CANSLIM.net Mid-Day BreakOuts Report (read here).  

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Disappointing Negative Reversal After Chance At New High Close - Wednesday, February 13, 2008

Healthy stocks that are within close striking distance of new highs are often great buy candidates for investors to keep on their watch lists, especially when the companies match favorably with all of the investment system's criteria.  When a stock is more than -10% off its 52-week high, and if it has violated its 50-day moving average (DMA) line, then the outlook only gets worse and worse as it spends a greater period of time trading deeper under that important short-term average line. By the time a stock's 50 DMA line starts sloping downward it should also be acknowledged that the stock has been struggling for a long while, in which case it might be time to reduce exposure and look for places to put that money to work in stronger buy candidates.

ICON plc (ICLR  -$0.07 or -0.11% to $64.58) negatively reversed after technically having a chance at a new high close today, closing the session with a small loss on about average volume. This high-ranked leader has shown solid earnings growth and sales revenues growth in recent quarterly comparisons. It spent the past few weeks consolidating, finding support near its 50 DMA line ($61.78 now).  Despite the broader market's weakness, ICLR still sports very healthy ranks. Its Earnings Per Share (EPS) rating stands at a firm 89 and its Relative Strength (RS) rating is a very healthy 96.  The stock recently hit a new all time high of $69.83 in January, as the major averages were in the middle of one of their worst sell offs in years. Icon is currently -7.5% below its 52-week high, which means it still faces some resistance due to overhead supply up to the $69 level, yet it is within fairly close striking distance from reaching new highs.  It is a strong company that should be included on an active watchlist until market conditions (the M criteria) are more agreeable. Meanwhile, any breach of its recent chart lows near $58 would raise concerns and trigger a technical sell signal.

ICLR was originally featured on Tuesday, April 24, 2007 in the CANSLIM.net Mid Day Breakouts Report (read here) with a $44.70 pivot point and a $46.94 maximum buy price. It spent the next couple of months advancing slightly, then broke down under its 50 DMA line in June.  On September 18th, 2007 it blasted to new highs with heavy volume, and after a brief violation of its 50 DMA line it soon thereafter broke out again, rising above resistance in the $60 area with gains backed by heavy volume in December. Since then it rallied again to new highs, but it encountered heavy distribution on January 22 & 23 as the major averages faced heavy selling pressure.  It again found prompt support near an upward trendline after a brief breach of its 50 DMA line and prior chart highs (near $60). 

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Healthy Consolidation After Recent Breakout - Thursday, January 03, 2008

Another important factor is the relationship between an uptrend and a stock's pivot point.  Typically, stocks begin forming an uptrend after rising above their pivot point.  In the event the upward trend is violated, the stock will generally be expected to continue falling until it can retest support.  Initial support is often the 50 DMA, or its pivot point, whichever is higher.

ICON plc (ICLR +$1.48 or +2.39% to $63.40) edged higher on below average volume as this leader continues finding support above its prior chart highs. This stock was first featured on Tuesday, April 24, 2007 in the CANSLIM.net Mid Day Breakouts Report (read here) with a $44.70 pivot point and a $46.94 maximum buy price as it was triggering a technical buy signal.  A few months later the stock surged a very healthy +37% before spending the next two months building a new base to consolidate its move. More recently, due to ICLR's healthy action it was re-featured on Friday, December 19, 2007 in that day's CANSLIM.net Mid Day Breakouts Report (read here) with a new $60.77 pivot point and a new $63.81 maximum buy price.  The report said, "Y - Triggering a new technical buy signal today after company reaffirms 2007 outlook and gives positive outlook for 2008. Triggered a technical sell signal on 12/13/07 with a considerable loss on above average volume that led to a violation of its 50 DMA line, previously noted as an important support level being tested. Recently broke an upward trendline while retreating from resistance in the $60-61 area..."

Since its 12/19 and 12/21 gains on above average volume the stock has quietly pulled back on light volume.  Technically, support near its prior chart highs is an important area now. The stock is currently trading below its maximum buy price which offers disciplined investors a fair opportunity to accumulate shares in this high-ranked leader within guidelines. Disciplined investors remember to always sell a stock if it drops 7-8% below their purchase price. 

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Fresh Breakout Ends At New High Close - Friday, September 21, 2007

A classic example of the success enjoyed by many CANSLIM.net readers usually starts when an investor reads a CANSLIM.net report and buys a featured stock before it has risen above the pivot point by greater than 5%.  After a stock breaks out above its pivot point, there is only a +5% window that investors have to purchase the stock under the proper guidelines. Once a stock rises above the "maximum buy price" the risk of a shake out balloons, meaning that even a normal retracement in the stock might force you to employ the 7-8% loss cutting rule.  Much can be told by the stock's daily action in the weeks and months that follow a breakout. Typically, a light volume and orderly pullback suggests that the bulls remain in control.  However, high volume pullbacks that violate support paint a totally different picture.

ICON plc (ICLR +$0.86 or +1.61% to $52.61) edged up to its highest ever close with a gain on below average volume Friday. This stock triggered its latest technical buy signal earlier this week on Tuesday, September 18th, 2007, when it surged into new high territory on above the minimum +50% above average volume threshold. That healthy action allowed this stock to be featured in that day's Mid Day Breakouts Report (read here) with a new $49.75 pivot point and $52.24 maximum buy price. It is encouraging to see the company earn a healthy Earnings Per Share (EPS) rating of 91 and an admirable Relative Strength (RS) rating of 90.  The company has managed to increase its earnings by well above the +25% guideline in the past four quarterly comparisons versus the year earlier, easily satisfying the "C" criteria. ICLR resides in the Medical/Dental- services group which is currently ranked 20th of out the 197 Industry Groups covered in the paper, satisfying the "L" criteria. 

ICLR was first featured on Tuesday, April 24, 2007 in the CANSLIM.net Mid Day Breakouts Report (read here) with a $44.70 pivot point and a $46.94 maximum buy price. But after only a brief +11% rally, the stock began pulling back and triggering technical sell signals. Instead of building a new base and finding support above its 50 DMA line, however, volume picked up as this stock negated its breakout and violated all remaining areas of support. This action was discussed at length on June 7, 2007 in the CANSLIM.net After Market Report (read here) when its daily coverage was suspended from the CANSLIM.net Featured Stocks List. ICLR is a great example of how valuable the ongoing coverage of leading stocks at CANSLIM.net can be, because it demonstrates the in-depth analysis we offer during both good times and bad. Always limit losses per the 7-8% sell rule, and never hold a stock if it falls more than that much from your purchase price.

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Damaging Losses Trigger Technical Sell Signals - Thursday, June 07, 2007

A very important technical tool that savvy investors have learned to incorporate in their technical analysis is the 50-day moving average (DMA) line.  The 50 DMA line plays a pivotal role relative to a stock's price.  If the price of a stock is above its 50 DMA then odds are that its 50 DMA will act as formidable support.  Conversely, if the price is below its 50 DMA then the moving average acts as resistance.  Healthy stocks sometimes trade under their 50 DMA lines briefly, but usually a strong candidate will promptly bounce and repair a 50 DMA violation. When a stock has violated its 50 DMA line and then lingers beneath it, the stock's outlook gets worse and worse as it spends a greater period of time trading under that important short-term average line. Once the 50 DMA line starts sloping downward it should also be acknowledged that the stock has been struggling for a while, and it might be time to reduce exposure and look for places to put that money to work in stronger buy candidates.

ICON plc (ICLR -$1.17 or -2.65% to $42.92) continued moving lower today after multiple sell signals were triggered by Wednesday's violations of its 50 DMA line, pivot point, and multi-month upward trendline. Normally one would like to see a stock find support at or above any of these important inflection points, or a prompt repair of any breach, however that did not occur.  Volume was above average for a third consecutive losing session as the stock sliced fell back under prior chart high and closed back in its prior base, totally negating its April 24th breakout.  This weakness is a sign that institutional investors were unloading shares instead of propping the stock up with supportive buying efforts.

ICLR was first featured on Tuesday, April 24, 2007 in the CANSLIM.net Mid Day Breakouts Report (read here) with a $44.70 pivot point and a $46.94 maximum buy price. It was very encouraging to see volume spike above the +50% above average volume guideline behind that day's gains, sufficient to trigger a proper technical buy signal. It had demonstrated signs of strong institutional buying demand (the 'I" criteria) as it blasted higher and actually closed at a new high close on above average turnover.  But after only a brief +11% rally, the stock began pulling back. Also, note that it had failed to produce any gains on above average volume in more than 5 weeks.  Instead of building a new base and finding support above its 50 DMA line, however, volume picked up as this stock negated its breakout and violated all remaining areas of support. As always, a stock should be sold any time it falls -7-8% below its purchase price. As of tonight, ICLR will be dropped from the CANSLIM.net Featured Stocks List and daily coverage will discontinue. 

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Stock Gaps Up Out of a Decent Base - Tuesday, April 24, 2007

Group action plays a very important role, and experienced investors learn that they can increase their odds of picking a great winner by always focusing their buying efforts in the market's leading groups.  The "L" criteria in CAN SLIM(R) tells us to choose leading companies in leading industry groups, thus it is suggested that investors choose from the top quartile of the 197 Industry Groups (listed in the paper most days on page B4). A classic example of the success enjoyed by many CANSLIM.net readers usually starts when an investor reads a CANSLIM.net report and buys a featured stock before it has risen above the pivot point by greater than 5%.  After a stock breaks out above its pivot point, there is only a +5% window that investors have to purchase the stock under the proper guidelines. Once a stock rises above the "maximum buy price" the risk of a shake out balloons, meaning that even a normal retracement in the stock might force you to employ the 7-8% loss cutting rule.  Much can be told by the stock's daily action in the weeks and months that follow a breakout. Typically, a light volume and orderly pullback suggests that the bulls remain in control.  However, high volume pullbacks that violate support paint a totally different picture.

ICON plc (ICLR +$1.64 or +3.73% to $45.64) gapped up as it broke out of a 3-month base after reporting stellar first quarter results. This stock was first featured on Tuesday, April 24, 2007 in the CANSLIM.net Mid Day Breakouts Report (read here) with a $44.70 pivot point and a $46.94 maximum buy price. It was very encouraging to see volume spike above the +50% above average volume guideline behind the day's gains, sufficient to trigger a proper technical buy signal. Technically, this stock demonstrated signs of strong institutional buying demand (the 'I" criteria) as it blasted higher and actually closed at a new high close on above average turnover.

The "C" criteria was easily satisfied in this high-ranked leader which has managed to increase its earnings dramatically in the recent quarterly comparisons versus the year ago comparison. In ICLR's most recent quarter ended March 31, 2006 the company earned $0.42 cents per share, compared to $0.27 in the first quarter of 2006, which is an impressive +56% increase - nicely higher than the +25% guideline.  Meanwhile, its sales revenues have continued growing at a very strong pace, which is also positive. The stock sports a healthy Earnings Per Share (EPS) rating of a 93.  ICLR resides in the "Medical - Dental Services" group which is currently ranked 35th out of the 197 Industry Groups covered in the paper, placing it in the much preferred top quartile and satisfying the "L" criteria. Now that this stock has traded above its pivot point it is important not to "chase" this stock above its maximum buy price. Any reversal and close back under prior chart highs, dropping it back into its prior base, would be a technical sell signal to watch out for.  As always, a stock should be sold any time it falls -7-8% below its purchase price.  

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