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Longtime Biomed/Biotech Leader Hitting New Highs Again - Wednesday, January 09, 2008

Often, when a leading stock is setting up to breakout of a solid base it is highlighted in CANSLIM.net's Mid-Day Breakouts Report.  The most relevant factors are noted in the report which allows prudent CANSLIM oriented investors to place the issue in their watch list.  After doing any necessary backup research, the investor is prepared to act if and when the stock triggers a technical buy signal (breaks above its pivot point on more than +50% average turnover). In the event the stock fails to trigger a technical buy signal and its price declines then it will simply be removed from the watch list.

Gilead Sciences Inc.(GILD +$1.65 or +3.52% to $48.50) hit a new all-time high today as it broke out of its latest base with a gain backed by +25% above average volume. This stock was first featured more than 5 years ago in the December 2002 issue of CANSLIM.net News (read here). The stock has risen 5-fold since then, however it has enjoyed its fair share of volatility during that timeframe.

A few years after its initial appearance in CANSLIM.net reports, the stock was featured again on Thursday, March 16, 2006 in the CANSLIM.net Mid Day Breakouts Report (read here) with a split adjusted $32.04 pivot point and a $33.64 maximum buy price. The stock initially rallied but then pulled back and, after violating its breakout and triggering a technical sell signal, found support near its 200 DMA line. The stock begin its recovery, and after rallying constructively it was featured again in the latter half of 2007. More recently, the stock was made yellow on Friday, December 21, 2007, edition of the CANSLIM.net Mid Day Breakouts Report (read here) with an updated $47.75 pivot point and a $50.14 maximum buy price. Since that appearance, the stock has yet to trigger a proper new technical buy signal. There are two reasons why the stock has failed to trigger a technical buy signal: the market is currently in a correction, and the stock has yet to trade above its pivot point on the necessary volume needed to trigger a technical buy signal. This is a great example of a strong stock that should remain on an active watch list until a new follow-through day emerges.   A confirmed rally for at least one of the major averages is neccessary to satisfy the M criteria of the investment system.

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Basing Above 50 DMA Line, Not on the New Highs List Yet - Wednesday, June 06, 2007

A very important technical tool that savvy investors have learned to incorporate in their technical analysis is the 50-day moving average (DMA) line.  The 50 DMA line plays a pivotal role relative to a stock's price.  If the price of a stock is above its 50 DMA then odds are that its 50 DMA will act as formidable support.  Conversely, if the price is below its 50 DMA then the moving average acts as resistance.  Healthy stocks sometimes trade under their 50 DMA lines briefly, but usually a strong candidate will promptly bounce and repair a 50 DMA violation. When a stock has violated its 50 DMA line and then lingers beneath it, the stock's outlook gets worse and worse as it spends a greater period of time trading under that important short-term average line. Once the 50 DMA line starts sloping downward it should also be acknowledged that the stock has been struggling for a while, and it might be time to reduce exposure and look for places to put that money to work in stronger buy candidates.

Gilead Sciences Inc. (GILD -$1.88 or -2.26% to $81.41) pulled back and closed 1 penny above its intra-day low today as it continued testing the low of its current base and its 50 DMA line, both important areas of support. On April 19, 2007 this stock jumped on heavy volume above $80, and it has spent the past the past few weeks consolidating its recent move above its 50 DMA line. This stock was featured on Thursday, March 16th, 2006 in the CANSLIM.net Mid Day Breakouts Report (read here) and has rallied smartly since then.  Along the way, it went through a couple of consolidations where it spent weeks trading under its 50 DMA line, but each time it found suport near its longer-term 200 DMA line and the rallied back with great conviction to ultimately press on to new highs.

Healthy action has led to a decent 6-week base building period above its 50 DMA line.  The stock was featured in today's CANSLIM.net Mid Day Breakouts Report (read here) with a $84.57 pivot point and a $88.80 "maximum buy" price.  It is perched near all-time highs after building a flat base, however it is important to note that a proper new technical buy signal has not been triggered yet!  Therefore, until this stock trades above its pivot point with considerable gains on at least +50% above average volume, patience is required. Without such a reassurance that the stock is being accumulated aggressively by institutional investors (the "I" criteria) its chances of making a sustained advance are looked at as questionable.  As always, stocks should be sold if they ever drop 7-8% below your purchase price to prevent the possibility of greater losses which can be damaging both psychologically and financially.

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Volume is Always Considered Vital - Tuesday, April 04, 2006

Often, when a leading stock is setting up to breakout of a solid base it is highlighted in CANSLIM.net's Mid-Day Breakouts Report.  The most relevant factors are noted in the report which allows prudent CANSLIM oriented investors to place the issue in their watch list.  After doing any necessary backup research, the investor is prepared to act if and when the stock triggers a technical buy signal (breaks above its pivot point on more than +50% average turnover). In the event the stock fails to trigger a technical buy signal and its price declines then it will simply be removed from the watch list.

Gilead Sciences Inc. (GILD +1.04 or +1.59% to $64.53) enjoyed a fresh new high close today (Tuesday, April 4th, 2006) yet it failed to trade up on volume sufficient to trigger a proper buy signal. This stock was recently featured on Thursday, March 16th, 2006 in the CANSLIM.net Mid Day Breakouts Report (read here) with a pivot point of $64.07 and the following note, "Base has improved yet not perfect but high ranks and solid earnings make worthy to feature. Needs to trade above the pivot point ($64.07) with the required volume to trigger a technical buy signal."

Breakouts that lack meaningful volume are considered invalid.  Today GILD traded and closed above its pivot point, however it failed to trigger a proper technical "buy signal" due to the fact that the volume total accompanying the rise did not surpass its daily average volume (DAV) total by at least the +50% minimum. Caution would also be advised at this time because it is a late-stage base and inherently more prone to failure. Nonetheless, GILD still sports very impressive fundamentals (earnings growth history) and the highest possible EPS rank, with accelerating sales revenues and earnings growth in recent comparisons.  It is a leader in the strong Medical-Biomed/biotech group now ranked 30th of the 197 groups, satisfying the "L" criteria.  

The stock continually found support at its 50-day moving average (DMA) line throughout its steady rise.  Any violation of the 50 DMA would be considered a technical sell signal, especially if large volume accompanies any damaging losses.  Stop losses at 7-8% below your purchase price are one way to be sure to follow proper sell discipline and avoid letting a loss grow larger.

 



Leader On Rise Forming Ascending Base - Thursday, March 16, 2006

Often, when a leading stock is setting up to breakout of a solid base it is highlighted in CANSLIM.net's Mid-Day Breakouts Report.  The most relevant factors are noted in the report which allows prudent CANSLIM oriented investors to place the issue in their watch list.  After doing any necessary backup research, the investor is prepared to act if and when the stock triggers a technical buy signal (breaks above its pivot point on more than +50% average turnover). In the event the stock fails to trigger a technical buy signal and its price declines then it will simply be removed from the watch list.

Gilead Sciences Inc. (GILD -$0.85 or -1.33% to $62.89) recently pulled back and found support at its 50-day moving average (DMA) line. This stock was featured in today's (Thursday, March 16, 2006) CANSLIM.net Mid-Day Breakouts Report (read here).  Note that the typical length of a sound buyable base under the proper guidelines is a minimum of 6 weeks, or just 5 weeks for a “flat base”.  An ideal buy point was triggered when this issue broke out in January.  Since the, as this stock has found support near the 50 DMA, in the process it has traced out what may be considered a new ascending base.  However, the most ideal ascending bases come after a more meaningful rise in price (+70%) has already occurred after an earlier stage base, and then there should be 3 price corrections of 10-20%.  Also, it is still important to see meaningful volume confirm any breakout (as always).  Acceleration in the sales revenues and earnings growth rate is a nice sign of fundamental strength.