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Pullbacks to Pivot Point Are Common - Wednesday, April 09, 2008

Statistically, about 40% of winning stocks will pull back after breaking out.  In other words, it is not uncommon for stocks to pullback and retest support near their pivot point after breaking out.  It is important to see the bulls show up and offer support at or above the pivot point.  This may offer investors a chance to increase their exposure before the stock continues advancing.  However, an important caveat is that volume should contract as the stock pulls back towards its pivot point. Heavy volume behind losses can be cause for concern, especially if the stock does not find support at its pivot point.  Whenever a recent breakout is completely negated by a loss that leads to a close back in the prior base, this is construed as a technical sell signal and a sign that the bears are regaining control.

Greif, Inc. (GEF -$1.08 or -1.60% to $68.50) pulled back on below average volume today and is in the process of retesting its pivot point and prior chart highs. This high-ranked leader has a great annual earnings growth history that helps to satisfy the A criteria, and it has shown solid earnings growth but decelerating sales revenues growth in recent quarterly comparisons. GEF sports very healthy ranks, with its Earnings Per Share (EPS) standing at a firm 97 and its Relative Strength (RS) rating a solid 92.  The number of top-rated funds owning an interest in its shares rose from 111 in Jun '07 to 113 in Mar '08, helping to satisfy the I criteria.

This stock was first featured on Friday, December 21, 2007 in the CANSLIM.net Mid Day Breakouts Report (read here) with a $64.36 pivot point and a $67.58 maximum buy price. It encountered heavy distribution in January, violating its 50 DMA line and closing under its 200 DMA line (January 22nd) as the major averages hit their recent lows. GEF sank well below its pivot point, falling nearly -20% before bouncing when the Fed cut rates by -75 basis points to help stem the selling in late January.  On February 28, 2008 its bullish action prompted another appearance in the CANSLIM.net Mid Day Breakouts Report (read here), and on that day a new pivot point was noted.  However, the stock closed that session off its high and below its pivot point, then immediately pulled back. More recently GEF surged to new highs on heavy volume.  Volume has been light on its recent down sessions, as it has avoided distributional pressure. As long as this stock finds support near or above prior chart highs in the $68 area, then arguably the bulls remain in control.  Damaging losses leading to a close back in its prior base would raise concerns. As always, proper discipline requires investors to sell if any stock falls 7-8% from their buy price, as that is the only way to eliminate the chance of even larger losses occurring.  

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Support Shown by Prompt Repair of 50 DMA Line - Tuesday, March 11, 2008

Healthy stocks that are within close striking distance of new highs are often great buy candidates for investors to keep on their watch lists, especially when the companies match favorably with all of the investment system's criteria.  When a stock is more than -10% off its 52-week high, and if it has violated its 50-day moving average (DMA) line, then the outlook only gets worse and worse as it spends a greater period of time trading deeper under that important short-term average line. By the time a stock's 50 DMA line starts sloping downward it should also be acknowledged that the stock has been struggling for a long while, in which case it might be time to reduce exposure and look for places to put that money to work in stronger buy candidates.

Greif Inc. (GEF +$3.11 or +4.92% to $66.30) gapped higher today, repairing the prior session's 50 DMA violation promptly with a solid gain on above average volume. The action was a reassuring sign of institutional support arriving near that important short-term average line. It closed the session less than -4.7% below its 52-week high and it does not face any formidable resistance due to overhead supply now.  This high-ranked leader has a great annual earnings growth history that helps to satisfy the A criteria, and it has shown solid earnings growth but decelerating sales revenues growth in recent quarterly comparisons. GEF sports very healthy ranks, with its Earnings Per Share (EPS) standing at a firm 97 and its Relative Strength (RS) rating a solid 89.  The number of top-rated funds owning an interest in its shares rose from 101 in Mar '07 to 113 in Dec '07, helping to satisfy the I criteria. The stock resides in the Containers group which is currently ranked 32nd out of the 197 groups published in the paper, which places it in the top quartile needed to satisfy the L criteria.

This stock was first featured on Friday, December 21, 2007 in the CANSLIM.net Mid Day Breakouts Report (read here) with a $64.36 pivot point and a $67.58 maximum buy price. It encountered heavy distribution in January, violating its 50 DMA line and closing under its 200 DMA line (January 22nd) as the major averages hit their recent lows. GEF sank well below its pivot point, falling nearly -20% before bouncing when the Fed cut rates by -75 basis points to help stem the selling in late January.  It spent the past four months tracing out a large base and has yet to make any significant price progress.  On February 28, 2008 its bullish action prompted another appearance in the CANSLIM.net Mid Day Breakouts Report (read here), and on that day a new pivot point was noted.  However, the stock closed that session off its high and below its pivot point, then immediately pulled back. Confirming gains above the pivot point of $68.53 with at least +50% above average volume are still needed before this stock has triggered a proper technical buy signal and might be expected to make more serious upward progress. The stock should remain on an active watchlist until a new technical buy signal is triggered. Proper discipline requires investors to sell if any stock falls 7-8% from their buy price, as that is the only way to eliminate the chance of even larger losses occurring.  

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Stocks Near Highs Are Good Candidates For Your Watchlist - Thursday, February 07, 2008

Healthy stocks that are within close striking distance of new highs are often great buy candidates for investors to keep on their watch lists, espcially when the companies match favorably with all of the investment system's criteria.  When a stock is more than -10% off its 52-week high, and if it has violated its 50-day moving average (DMA) line, then the outlook only gets worse and worse as it spends a greater period of time trading deeper under that important short-term average line. By the time a stock's 50 DMA line starts sloping downward it should also be acknowledged that the stock has been struggling for a long while, in which case it might be time to reduce exposure and look for places to put that money to work in stronger buy candidates.

Greif Inc. (GEF +$1.38 or +2.15% to $65.47) edged higher on below average volume as this high-ranked leader continued consolidating its recent move, staying above its prior chart highs in the $64 area. Greif Inc. ran into resistance near its prior chart high in the $68 area.  Despite the broader market's weakness, GEF still sports very healthy ranks. Its Earnings Per Share and Relative Strength rating are both 93 which is a very healthy number. This stock was first featured on Friday, December 21, 2007 in the CANSLIM.net Mid Day Breakouts Report (read here) with a $64.36 pivot point and a $67.58 maximum buy price. It encountered heavy distribution in January, violating its 50 DMA line and closing under its 200 DMA line (January 22nd) as the major averages hit their recent lows. GEF sank well below its pivot point, falling nearly -20% before bouncing when the Fed cut rates by -75 basis points to help stem the selling in late January.  The stock is currently -4.3% below its 52-week high, which means it faces little resistance due to overhead supply and it is within reasonable striking distance from reaching new highs.  It is a strong name that should be included on an active watchlist until market conditions (the M criteria) are more agreeable.

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