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Orderly Consolidation Continues Near All-Time Highs - Monday, June 30, 2008

 

F M C Technologies Inc.

- Kenneth J. Gruneisen 

Ticker Symbol: FTI (NYSE)

Industry Group: Oilgas- machinery/equipment

Shares Outstanding:  128,100,000

Price: $76.93

Day's Volume: 2,807,800 6/30/2008

Shares in Float:  125,500,000

52 Week High: $83.18 5/21/2008

50-Day Average Volume: 1,833,200

Up/Down Volume Ratio: 1.1

Pivot Point: $81.42  6/24/2008 high plus $0.10

Pivot Point +5% = Max Buy Price: $85.49

Web Address: http://www.fmctechnologies.com

 

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CANSLM.net Company Profile: FMC Technologies, Inc. designs, manufactures, and services machinery and systems for the energy, food processing, and air transportation industries in the United States and internationally. It operates in four segments: Energy Production Systems, Energy Processing Systems, FoodTech, and Airport Systems. Energy Production Systems segment provides systems used by oil and gas companies involved in land and offshore, including deepwater exploration and production of crude oil and gas. The company was founded in 2000 and is based in Houston, Texas.  FMC Technolgies enjoys healthy Earnings Per Share (EPS) and Relative Strength (RS) ratings, both at 96 as of this writing.  The company has a solid annual earnings track record (good A criteria) and also has managed to increase its earnings per share above the +25% guideline in each of the past six quarterly comparisons (solidly meeting the C criteria) versus the year earlier. The number of top-rated funds owning an interst rose from 184 in Jun '07 to 261 as of Mar '08, a nice reassurance for the I criteria. FTI resides in the Oilgas- machinery/equipment group which is currently ranked 9th out of the 197 Industry Groups covered in the paper, placing it easily in the top quartile helping satisfy the L criteria.

What to Look For and What to Look Out For: Look for FTI to trigger a fresh technical buy signal, which could come if it rallies and closes above its pivot point with gains backed by volume of at least +2.7 million shares. Volume needs to be at least +50% above average when the stock manages to close above its pivot point in order to trigger a proper technical buy signal - the high volume behind a breakout's gains is a critical sign of institutional buying demand (the I criteria). It would be very encouraging to see FTI trigger a technical buy signal and continue rallying to fresh highs after a sound follow-through day is produced. However, if volume fails to meet the minimum guidelines then a proper technical buy signal would not be triggered. Keep in mind that the major averages first need to produce a confirmed rally attempt to satisfy the M criteria, making new buying efforts justified.  Avoid chasing this issue above its maximum buy price of $85.49, where it would be too extended from a sound price base. As always, it is of the utmost importance to sell a stock if it drops 7-8% below your purchase price. 

Technical Analysis: FMC is currently building a flat base which happens to reside on top of a prior base. This high-ranked leader is consolidating above its 50 DMA line, which may act as support as its consolidation continues. It is encouraging to see volume generally receding since its big volume-driven gains in May. The stock has performed well in recent week as the major averages fell into a correction, and many other stocks in the group have moved sideways.  This is best illustrated by the stock's 96 Relative Strength rating. A look at its weekly chart shows limited downward action with volume in recent months, as it has not encountered distributional pressure.