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Test At The 50 Day Moving Average Line - Friday, November 02, 2007

A very important technical tool that savvy investors have learned to incorporate in their technical analysis is the 50-day moving average (DMA) line.  The 50 DMA line plays a pivotal role relative to a stock's price.  If the price of a stock is above its 50 DMA then odds are that its 50 DMA will act as formidable support.  Conversely, if the price is below its 50 DMA then the moving average acts as resistance.  Healthy stocks sometimes trade under their 50 DMA lines briefly, but usually a strong candidate will promptly bounce and repair a 50 DMA violation. When a stock has violated its 50 DMA line and then lingers beneath it, the stock's outlook gets worse and worse as it spends a greater period of time trading under that important short-term average line. Once the 50 DMA line starts sloping downward it should also be acknowledged that the stock has been struggling for a while, and it might be time to reduce exposure and look for places to put that money to work in stronger buy candidates.

Cynosure, Inc. (CYNO -$2.87 or -7.36% to $36.10) pulled back on above average volume, closing near its 50 DMA line on Friday. On Thursday, the stock reported its third quarter results and said that its earnings jumped up +150% as sales increased a very healthy +70%. However, concerns were raised as it recently sank under prior chart highs near $38-39 triggering technical sell signals. It has struggled to make significant progress since it was first featured in the June 2007 edition of CANSLIM.net News (read here) as it was triggering a technical buy signal with a $33.09 pivot point and $34.75 maximum buy price. The stock rallied approximately +14% before it pulled back to consolidate its recent move. Important support levels to watch are its 50-day moving average (DMA) line ($35.91), where a bounce could offer investors another opportunity to accumulate shares. As long as its 50 DMA line and prior chart highs (at $33-35) and are not breached, odds favor it making further gains.  However, losses leading to damaging violations would raise concerns and could trigger additional technical sell signals. Always limit losses per the 7-8% sell rule, and never hold a stock if it falls more than that much from your purchase price.  

The company sports a very strong Earnings Per Share (EPS) rating of 98. It is also encouraging to see the company earn a healthy Relative Strength (RS) rating of 96.  The company has managed to increase its earnings by well over the +25% guideline in each of the past four quarterly comparisons versus the year earlier, satisfying the C criteria. It is also encouraging to see earnings accelerate in each of the past four quarters. CYNO resides in the Medical- Systems/Equip group which is currently ranked 7th of out the 197 Industry Groups covered in the paper, placing it in the much preferred top quartile needed to satisfy the L criteria.

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Technically Sound Leader Holds Its Ground - Friday, July 13, 2007

An upward trendline, by definition, develops as a stock steadily appreciates over an extended period of time.  During that period the stock vacillates between the lower and upper boundaries of trendlines which can be drawn connecting a series of recent highs or lows.  In order to ensure the overall health of the stock, the lower boundary should not be violated.  Technically, if the lower boundary is violated this signals that the trend is deteriorating and bears are gaining control, making the odds start to favor the possibility of further downside testing. 

Cynosure, Inc. (CYNO -$0.31 or -0.81% to $37.93) closed lower on below average volume Friday, but it remains in fine shape while perched near its all-time chart highs. This stock was first featured in the June 2007 edition of CANSLIM.net News (read here) as it was triggering a technical buy signal with a $33.09 pivot point and $34.75 maximum buy price. Since then the stock has rallied a healthy +14% and continues to find support every time it pulls back, staying above the lower boundary of its upward trendline (shown below). The stock continues to sport very high ranks - a very healthy 97 Earnings Per Share (EPS) rating and a 98 Relative Strength (RS) rating. Perhaps most impressive feat is the stock's 99 Composite Rating, an aggregate of all the other ratings found in the paper, which is pegged at the highest possible rating. 

CYNO is currently too extended to be considered buyable under the proper guidelines.  The next important support levels to watch are the upward trendline and its 50-day moving average (DMA) line, where a bounce could offer investors another opportunity to accumulate shares. As long as its upward trendline and 50 DMA line are not breached, odds favor even further gains.  However, losses leading to damaging violations would raise concerns and could trigger technical sell signals.

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High Ranked Medical Systems Maker Looks Bright - Saturday, June 02, 2007

Cynosure Inc.

- Kenneth J. Gruneisen  

Ticker Symbol: CYNO (NASDAQ)

Industry Group: Medical system/equip

Shares Outstanding:  12,000,000

Price: $34.92 6/1/2007

Day's Volume: 1,011,500 6/1/2007

Shares in Float:  4,840,000

52 Week High: $35.29  6/1/2007 

50-Day Average Volume: 320,000

Up/Down Volume Ratio: 1.6

Pivot Point: $33.09 4/25/2007 high plus .10

Pivot Point +5% = Max Buy Price: $34.75

Web Address: http://www.cynosurelaser.com/

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CANSLIM.net Profile: Cynosure, Inc. was founded in 1991 and is headquartered in Westford, Massachusetts.  It develops, manufactures, and markets aesthetic treatment systems that are used by physicians and other practitioners to perform noninvasive procedures. Its systems incorporate a range of laser and other light-based energy sources, including Alexandrite, pulse dye, Nd:YAG, and diode lasers, as well as intense pulsed light. The company's products include Apogee Elite system for hair removal; Cynergy system for the treatment of vascular lesions; TriActive LaserDermology system for the temporary reduction of the appearance of cellulite; Affirm system for anti-aging, including treatments for wrinkles, skin texture, skin discoloration, and skin tightening; and Smartlipo system for LaserBodySculpting and the removal of unwanted fat. It primarily offers its products to the dermatology, plastic surgery, and general medical markets. Products are sold through a direct sales force in North America, Europe, Japan, and China, as well as through international distributors in other countries. Earnings have topped the year earlier by an impressive +250%, +60%, +91%, and +108% in the past four quarterly comparisons ended Jun, Sep, Dec '06 and Mar '07, with sales revenues up by +40%, +23%, +52%, and +52%, respectively.  The company's management owns a 37% stake in its shares, which gives investors a reassurance management is focused on maintaining and building shareholder value. The company hails from the Medical- systems/equip group which is presently ranked 55th on the 197 Industry Groups list, which places it just outside the top quartile of industry groups. Encouraging leadership from other stocks in this group offers a reassurance concerning the "L" criteria.

What to Look For and What to Look Out For:  Look for this stock to hold onto its gains and continue rallying.  Now that this issue has vaulted above its pivot point, the path of least resistance is higher and odds favor further price gains. Whenever a stock clears overhead supply or chart resistance, and jumps into new high territory, this typically bodes well for the stock's ability to add to its gains. Since it encountered resistance several times in the past few months just shy of $33, that prior resistance level should now act as a chart support level. Ideally, in the days immediately ahead CYNO will follow through with additional gains on high volume to confirm the breakout. However, it should be noted that this stock closed Friday's session $0.17 above the "maximum buy" price +5% above its pivot point.  Investors should usually remain disciplined and avoid the urge to "chase" stocks above the pivot point by more than +5%, which in this case is $34.75. In strong bull markets it may occasionally be okay to buy as much as +10% above a pivot point, but when you don't buy close to the pivot point you increase the odds of being stopped out on an ordinary pullback.   If CYNO fails to follow through, the chances of a sustained rise and meaningful gains would be greatly reduced.  If the stock reverses and negates the breakout with a close under its best prior close of $32.29 on April 25th, the odds would then tip in favor of it spending more time consolidating and perhaps falling harder. The 50-day moving average (DMA) line (now $30.17) is the next important level of technical support.  Always limit losses if any stock you buy closes 7-8% below your purchase price. It is somewhat extended since it is trading +66% above its 200 DMA, so a strict sell discipline may be very helpful in the event of a downturn.

Technical Analysis: Volume on Friday, June 1st, 2007 surpassed the necessary total (+50% above average) to trigger a proper technical buy signal.  In fact, CYNO surged above resistance with gains backed by more than triple its average daily volume. That action has bullish implications, as considerable gains on heavy volume are an important component of "accumulation" or institutional buying activity (the "I" criteria). The stock has risen from an orderly flat base above its 50 DMA line.  The volume dry up during the basing period prior to the breakout is one of the healthy aspects of its chart.