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200 DMA and Prior Chart Support Holding Up - Tuesday, September 05, 2006

An important factor is the relationship between an uptrend and a stock's pivot point.  Typically, stocks begin forming an uptrend after rising above their pivot point.  In the event the upward trend is violated, the stock will generally be expected to continue falling until it can retest support.  Initial support is often the 50-day moving average (DMA) line, or its pivot point, whichever is higher.

CH Robinson Worldwide Inc. (CHRW -1.03 or -2.24% to $45.01) closed lower on above average volume on Tuesday. This stock was first featured on Tuesday, December 21, 2004 in the CANSLIM.net Mid Day Breakouts Report (read here) at $27.51 (split adjusted). It struggled for a long time and rather badly before finally coming back into play as it finally made new highs again in May of 2005.

More recently, on Wednesday August 8, 2006 (read here) this stock was featured in the CANSLIM.net's After-Market Report as it was pulling back to ultimately find support above its prior (Nov '05) chart highs of $41-42 area, and above support at its 200 DMA line. The $42-43 area has acted as a formidable support level in recent months, and as long as CHRW does not trade below $42, then odds favor that it will continue tracing out its current 6 month base. If that level is breached, then technically its outlook will be changed significantly, as during the past 6 month a great deal of overhead supply has been created while the stock traded up at higher levels.  Meanwhile, it would take a rise above its 50 DMA line with well above average volume for it to begin looking healthier.  Other stocks, making fresh breakouts to new highs, have the better chance of producing great gains.

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Moving Towards Support at 200 DMA and Prior Lows - Wednesday, August 09, 2006

A very important technical tool that savvy investors have learned to incorporate in their technical analysis is the 200-day moving average (DMA) line.  The 200 DMA line plays a pivotal role relative to a stock's price.  If the price of a stock is above its 200 DMA then odds are that its 200 DMA will act as longer term support.  Conversely, if the price is below its 200 DMA then the moving average acts as resistance.   Obviously, if a technical breakdown or violation takes place on heavy volume it is a more serious concern.  Sometimes quiet violations are repaired quickly, without a lot of additional losses.  However, the key moving averages are always an important line to watch.  

CH Robinson Worldwide Inc. (CHRW -$1.8 or -3.96% to $43.64) closed lower on just above average volume and ended right at its 200 DMA line. This stock was first featured on Tuesday, December 21, 2004 in the CANSLIM.net Mid Day Breakouts Report (read here) at $27.51 (split adjusted). It struggled for a long time and rather badly before finally coming back into play in May of 2005.

More recently, this stock was featured in the CANSLIM.net's After-Market Report as it was pulling back and finding support near its prior chart highs of $42-43 area on Monday July 17, 2006 (read here).  There were cautionary remarks at that time due to its recent 50 DMA violation that, "Further losses on heavy volume would be technical sell signals and cause for greater concern." In the interim, this stock found support and briefly rallied. However, in the past few days, after it briefly reclaimed its 50 DMA, the bears returned to the fore.  Support now appears to be under assault, but as long as support holds then odds favoring further gains are likely. However, if this issue pierces through support offered by its 200 DMA and prior chart lows in the $42 area, odds would then favor that even deeper losses will follow. If you bought CHRW based upon its impressive late-June gains, by now you probably already sold it, as proper discipline dictates never letting losses exceed 7-8% without taking action and selling.

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Pulling Back Toward Prior Chart Highs Again - Monday, July 17, 2006

Another important factor is the relationship between an uptrend and a stock's pivot point.  Typically, stocks begin forming an uptrend after rising above their pivot point.  In the event the upward trend is violated, the stock will generally be expected to continue falling until it can retest support.  Initial support is often the 50 DMA, or its pivot point, whichever is higher.

CH Robinson Worldwide Inc. (CHRW -0.14 or -0.30% to $46.36) closed Monday's session lower on below average volume, and it is now trading just under its 50 DMA but above prior support near the $42-43 area. This stock was first featured on Tuesday, December 21st, 2004 in the CANSLIM.net Mid Day Breakouts Report (read here) at $27.51 (split adjusted). However, CHRW failed to make immediate headway and spent the next few months consolidating.  It ran into some trouble during that consolidation. The Monday, January 3rd, 2005 CANSLIM.net Mid Day Breakouts Report's (read here) note read "Base building since recent advance."  A few weeks later, in the Wednesday January 12th, 2005 CANSLIM.net After Market Report (read here), it was noted that CHRW had sliced under its 50 day moving average on above average volume, so daily coverage was suspended.  However, after the correction ran its course, CHRW had formed a "base-on-base" pattern and was featured again in the Wednesday October 12th, 2005 Mid Day Breakouts Report (read here) with the following note - "Breaking out today from an ascending base like pattern. Good ranks. Watch for earnings call scheduled for Wednesday October 26th." After the company reported strong earnings, the stock promptly surged to new all time high territory.

More recently CH Robinson was written up on June 9th, 2006 as the CANSLIM.net After Market Report included - (read here) with the following comments, "Another gap down and above average volume declines after a Stifel Nicolaus downgrade from hold to sell. Did trade below support of an upward trendline triggering an initial sell signal. Solid support near $45 and a break below there would be another sell signal.  Additional sell signals have also been noted along the way since, and now it has been trading under its 50 DMA for several weeks.  It is nearing important chart support at its November highs near $42, another critical level."  The bulls then promptly showed up and offered support near its old lows, then repaired the 50 DMA violation and sent the stock racing up to a new all-time high. After its impressive rally ($42-55 in three weeks) it is again consolidating.  Volume was heavy accompanying last Friday's 50 DMA violation, prompting concern.  It is usually more encouraging to see volume dry up while an issue pulls back, as healthy stocks usually stay above their 50 DMA lines or at least promptly repair any minor violations.  Further losses on heavy volume would be technical sell signals and cause for greater concern, meanwhile the company is expected to report earnings later this month.  Earnings news is often a catalyst for greater volume and volatility.



Former Leader Struggling Under 50 DMA Nearing Critical Chart Support - Friday, June 09, 2006

Another important factor is the relationship between an uptrend and a stock's pivot point.  Typically, stocks begin forming an uptrend after rising above their pivot point.  In the event the upward trend is violated, the stock will generally be expected to continue falling until it can retest support.  Initial support is often the 50 DMA, or its pivot point, whichever is higher.

CH Robinson Worldwide Inc. (CHRW +$0.24 or 0.55% to $43.59) closed Friday's session higher on very light volume, and it is now struggling to stay above support near the $42-43 area. This stock was first featured on Tuesday, December 21st, 2004 in the CANSLIM.net Mid Day Breakouts Report (read here) at $27.51 (split adjusted). However, CHRW failed to make immediate headway and spent the next few months consolidating.  It ran into some trouble during that consolidation. The Monday, January 3rd, 2005 CANSLIM.net Mid Day Breakouts Report's (read here) note read "Base building since recent advance."  A few weeks later, in the Wednesday January 12th, 2005 CANSLIM.net After Market Report (read here), it was noted that CHRW had sliced under its 50 day moving average on above average volume, so daily coverage was suspended.  However, after the correction ran its course, CHRW had formed a "base-on-base" pattern and was featured again in the Wednesday October 12th, 2005 Mid Day Breakouts Report (read here) with the following note - "Breaking out today from an ascending base like pattern. Good ranks. Watch for earnings call scheduled for Wednesday October 26th." After the company reported strong earnings, the stock promptly surged to new all time high territory.

From November '05 to February '06, the stock consolidated, and the Featured Stock Update section of the January 20th, 2006 CANSLIM.net After Market Report (read here) highlighted its "'negative reversal' as the session started out with a positive bias but ended with a loss and a close near the session's low."  Our experts added with that note "The bears remain in control and the outlook is questionable until this issue can again trade above its 50 DMA."  In the weeks that followed, it repaired the 50 DMA violation, formed another sufficient length base, then re-appeared in the February 8th, 2006 CANSLIM.net After Market Report (read here) with the note - "New highs today after a recent bounce off of its 50 DMA."  From there it steadily traced out a solid upward trend before topping out at $53.13 on April 11th, 2006, up +93.12% from the price it was featured at 16 months earlier.

More recently things turned worrisome, and on April 17th, 2006 the After Market Report noted - "Another gap down and above average volume declines after a Stifel Nicolaus downgrade from hold to sell. Did trade below support of an upward trendline triggering an intial sell signal. Solid support near $45 and a break below there would be another sell signal."   Additional sell signals have also been noted along the way since, and now it has been trading under its 50 DMA for several weeks.  It is nearing important chart support at its November highs near $42, another critical level.

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Trendline Breached on Third High Volume Loss in Five Sessions -

Experienced investors learn to recognize early technical sell signals, and watch for them after a stock has enjoyed a meaningful rise so they can be sure to capture a profit.  Technically, short-term support is expected at an upward trend line, and a violation of that early support often leads to additional downside testinng.  The 50-day moving average (DMA) line and prior chart highs that were earlier resisitance levels are more important support levels.  Violations of those support levels usually should not be tolerated because, once they are breached, the stock is more likely to spend a lot longer time consolidating, or it could get into more serious trouble.   Sometimes, it is best to heed the earlier sell signals and free up your cash for future purchases within the proper guidelines. 

CH Robinson Worldwide has traded up as much as +65% since it was featured near $32 (split adjusted) in the October 12, 2005 CANSLIM.net Mid-Day BreakOuts report (read here). It tallied some initial gains and then went through a consolidation in the December-January period, only to resume a strong uptrend in February.  After a small gap down on Thursday, today's action began with another gap down and ended with the stock's third loss on above average volume in the past five sessions.  The brokerage Stifel Nicolaus downgraded it from hold to sell, triggering a harsh reaction from investors.  Technically, it traded below support of an upward trendline and triggered an early sell signal. Solid support should exist near $45 where prior chart resistance and its 50 DMA line coincide.  A break below that level would be another more worrisome sell signal.



When Support Becomes Resistance - Friday, January 20, 2006

A very important technical tool that savvy investors have learned to incorporate into their technical analysis is the 50-day moving average (DMA) line.  The 50 DMA line often plays a pivotal role relative to a stock's price.  If the price of a stock is trading above its 50 DMA then odds are that its 50 DMA will act as formidable support and the stock will fight to stay above it.  Conversely, if the stock has been trading below its 50 DMA, then this important short-term average tends to act as a resistance level.  

CH Robinson Worldwide Inc. (CHRW -1.13 or -2.98% to $36.83) ran into resistance right at its 50 DMA line today. This stock was featured on December 21st, 2004 in the CANSLIM.net's Mid-Day Breakouts Report (read here) at $27.50 (split adjusted) as it was emerging from a decent base. A second ominous technical factor which just ocurred is a "negative reversal", as the session stated out with a positive bias but ended with a loss and a close near the session's low.  The bears remain in control and the outlook is questionable until this issue can again trade above its 50 DMA.