Positive Reversal After Retracement To Pivot Point - Monday, September 10, 2007
STWNM - Breakout From Flat Base With Good Volume - Saturday, September 01, 2007

Positive Reversal After Retracement To Pivot Point - Monday, September 10, 2007

Statistically, about 40% of winning stocks will pull back after breaking out.  In other words, it is not uncommon for stocks to pullback and retest support near their pivot point after breaking out.  It is important to see the bulls show up and offer support at or above the pivot point.  This may offer investors a chance to increase their exposure before the stock continues advancing.  However, an important caveat is that volume should contract as the stock pulls back towards its pivot point. Heavy volume behind losses can be cause for concern, especially if the stock does not find support at its pivot point.  Whenever a recent breakout is completely negated by a loss that leads to a close back in the prior base, this is construed as a technical sell signal and a sign that the bears are regaining control.
 
Atlantic Tele-Network Inc. (ATNI +$0.02 or +0.06% to $33.17) recovered from early losses for a positive reversal. It closed with a gain on above average volume after finding support near its pivot point on Monday.  Its losses on Thursday and Friday were marked by lighter than average volume, which is considered a perfectly healthy consolidation after its higher volume breakout on 8/29/07 and confirming gains that followed.  ATNI was featured in the September 2007 edition of CANSLIM.net news (read here) as it was pulling back towards its $32.02 pivot point. The article said "Look for ATNI to find support near its $32.02 pivot point while the path of least resistance may likely tend to lead it higher.  As long as the pivot point is not breached then the technical breakout remains intact.  For disciplined investors, $33.62 may be considered the "maximum buy" price, which is +5% above the pivot point. Until either one of these two levels is breached the stock remains buyable within the proper guidelines. It is also important to see volume continue to recede as this issue pulls back to consolidate its recent move."  As always, if the stock falls 7-8% below your purchase price it should be sold, no excuses. 

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STWNM - Breakout From Flat Base With Good Volume - Saturday, September 01, 2007


Atlantic Tele Network

 Kenneth J. Gruneisen 

Ticker Symbol: ATNI (Nasdaq)

Industry Group: Telecom-services Foreign

Shares Outstanding:  15,200,000

Price: $33.48 8/31/07

Day's Volume: 80,400 8/31/07 

Shares in Float:  9,430,000

52 Week High: $34.98 8/31/07

50-Day Average Volume: 99,700

Up/Down Volume Ratio: 0.8

Pivot Point: $32.02 8/07/07 high plus .10

Pivot Point +5% = Max Buy Price: $33.62

Web Address: http://www.atni.com

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CANSLIM.net Profile: Atlantic Tele-Network, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides wireless and wireline telecommunications services in the Caribbean and North America. It offers wireless voice and data services for retail customers in Guyana and Bermuda, as well as wholesale wireless voice and data roaming services to national, regional, and local wireless carriers in rural markets located principally in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Missouri, and New Mexico. The company also provides domestic wireline local and long distance telephone services including service through international fiber optic cables in Guyana; facilities-based integrated voice and data communications services to residential and business customers in New England, primarily in Vermont; and Internet access service in the U.S. Virgin Islands. The company was founded in 1987 and is headquartered in Salem, Massachusetts. ATNI has increased its earnings over the year-ago period by +47%, +104%, +36%, and +36% in the past four quarterly financial reports for periods ending in Sept, Dec ‘06, and Mar, Jun '07,  easily satisfying the C criteria. During those respective quarters the company managed to increase its sales revenues by +65%, +34%, +26%, and +18%, respectively. The sequential deceleration in those numbers raises concerns, whereas normally we would like to see them accelerating and above the +25% guideline.  Return on Equity of 16% is a hair below the +17% guideline.  The company hails from the Telecom-services Foreign group which is presently ranked 20th on the 197 Industry Groups list, which is a very reassuring position concerning the L criteria.  The number of top-rated funds with an ownership interest has risen from 40 funds in September ‘06 to 57 funds as of June '07, a compelling sign of increasing institutional interest (the "I" criteria). Insiders own about 38% of its outstanding shares, keeping them focused on building and maintaining shareholder value.

What to Look For and What to Look Out For: Look for ATNI to find support near its $32.02 pivot point while the path of least resistance may likely tend to lead it higher.  As long as the pivot point is not breached then the technical breakout remains intact.  For disciplined investors, $33.62 may be considered the "maximum buy" price, which is +5% above the pivot point. Until either one of these two levels is breached the stock remains buyable within the proper guidelines. It is also important to see volume continue to recede as this issue pulls back to consolidate its recent move. Remember that approximately +40% of stocks pullback and retest their pivot points before charging higher. However, Friday's negative reversal on light volume is a concern if the bulls do not quickly show up and quell the bears' attempt to send this stock lower. As long as ATNI finds support near its pivot point, the bullish action will not be negated by technicla sell signals. Remember, always limit losses per the 7-8% sell rule, and never hold a stock if it falls more than that much from your purchase price.

Technical Analysis: ATNI blasted out of a long flat base on cup-with-handle type pattern on Wednesday August 29, 2007, the day of the market's latest follow-through. Volume was above the necessary guideline needed to trigger a technical buy signal. Since then, the stock had edged higher until Friday's late-day negative reversal. The fact that volume quieted as this stock ended lower on Friday helped the reduce the sting of its negative reversal. ATNI is currently trading -4.3% below its 52 week high ($34.98) but clear of resistance due to minimal overhead supply. History shows us that stocks that have cleared prior chart resistance run the greatest chance of advancing meaningfully.