COMPANY
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STATS |
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Ticker Symbol:
IVGN - Nasdaq
Industry Group: Medical-biomed/biotech
Price: $70.76
(at close 01/12/04)
Day's Volume: 1,048,800
(01/09/04)
50-day Average Volume: :
803,800
52 Wk High: $70.94
52 WK Low: $:
$28.04
Shares Outstanding: 51.1 Million
Shares In Float: 46.5 Million
Up/Down Volume Ratio: 1.3 |
Headquarters:
1600 Faraday Avenue
Carlsbad, CA 92008
Phone: (760) 603-7200
Fax: (760) 602-6500
E-mail: Contact
Page on Website
Website: http://www.invitrogen.com
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COMPANY
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PROFILE |
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Profile:
Invitrogen Corporation is a leading supplier of molecular biology reagents and kits, and cell culture products for life science research and biopharmaceutical production. They offer over 10,000 products that help life scientists isolate and analyze genes and proteins in order to understand the molecular basis of disease. The company's products and services support academic and government research institutions, and pharmaceutical and biotech companies worldwide in their efforts to improve the human condition. Essentially, the company develops research tools for biotechs and drug makers by providing essential life science technologies for disease research, drug discovery, and commercial bio-production. Invitrogen's own research and development efforts are focused on breakthrough innovation in all major areas of biological discovery including functional genomics, proteomics, bio-informatics and cell biology -- placing Invitrogen's products in nearly every major laboratory in the world. Today, Invitrogen's products are used globally in life science applications such as:
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Study of the cellular and genetic bases of diseases including cancer, diabetes, AIDS, cystic fibrosis, and Down's syndrome
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Development of cell and gene therapies used in bone marrow transplants, wound healing, and burn treatment
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Large-scale manufacture of genetically engineered health care products, including human and animal vaccines, and therapeutic drugs
Additionally, the company actively acquires health-related businesses that complement its own skill base, acquiring four in the past 16 months. It conducts business in more than 70 countries around the world, and globally it employs approximately 3,000 scientists and other professionals.
Financials
StockTalk
News
Chart
SEC
Zacks Reports
Technical Chart
Analysis:
The above daily chart and linked weekly
chart show that IVGN spent 2003 on a strong bullish run -
forming the right side of a multi-year cup. After gapping above both
its 50- and 200-day moving averages on April 25, 2003, it closed above the
50 DMA the rest of the year.
Further, it pulled back to the support of its 50-day moving average five
times during that period (four of which are shown above):
the last three were used to draw a supporting trend line (green).
Also, in the five-month period depicted above, 25 days produced an
increased price on volume exceeding its moving average (black bars above
moving average line), whereas only 10 days produced a lower price on such a volume increase
(red volume bars above the moving average line).
Clearly, this suggests that its shares have been under accumulation.
The on balance volume trend bears that out.
The ideal
buy point for IVGN shares has been tough to find, as it has not spent much
time basing. It is more fair to say it has been building an
ascending base. One could, however, use a pivot
point 10 cents above its recent high of $70.94 (December 29,
2003), or $71.04, and look to enter a new position as high as 5% higher
(making the limit to buy at
$74.51).
What to look for?
Price is likely to climb quickly if the stock
manages to rise beyond its pivot point with a meaningful trading volume
increase. It may well encounter resistance at its 2000 peaks ($87.44
in November 2000 and $99.50 in March 2000). Disciplined
investors
may wish to buy IVGN upon clearing its pivot point, as well as accumulate on any
ordinary dips, so long as there is not a technical breakdown. Any
heavy selling resulting in a close
below its trend line on very heavy volume would be considered a sell
signal. A break below its
50-day moving average line (currently near its trend line) would add even greater concern. We
always recommend limiting losses at 7-8%
and suggest exiting any position that closes below its 50-day moving
average and/or violates areas of prior support with any technical significance.
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CANSLIM
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COMPARATIVE |
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Current
Quarterly Earnings
- The
table below shows how the past four earnings announcements
have been versus the same quarter one year earlier,
leading off with the oldest and ending with the latest
reported quarterly results. Notice how the percentage
growth has been increasing over this period, or what we
call earnings growth acceleration.
Percentage Change in Earnings
Versus Year Earlier
Quarter Ended |
Earnings |
Percentage +/- |
December 31st 2002 |
0.39 |
+3% |
March 31st, 2003 |
0.52 |
+13% |
June 30th, 2003 |
0.56 |
+14% |
September 30th, 2003 |
0.57 |
+24% |
Invitrogen Corp. will release its Fourth Quarter
Financial Results on Friday, February 13, 2003.
Analysts expect it to report quarterly earnings of between
$0.55 to $0.57.
As well, on January 6, 2004, this company
raised its 2004 revenue estimate from $890 million
to $1 billion.
EARNINGS PER SHARE*
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Quarters
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2002
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2003
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MAR
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0.46
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0.52
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JUN
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0.49
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0.56
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SEP
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0.46
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0.57
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DEC
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0.39
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0.57 est
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Totals
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1.80
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2.22
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Note: Units
in U.S. Dollars
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Annual
Earnings - - When
applying CANSLIM there should be meaningful annual earnings growth over
the last three to five years. The average annual compounded growth rate of
earnings in the superior firms should be from 15% to 50% per
year or more. Despite a steady decline between 1999 and 2002 in
earnings growth, a review of the table below shows Invitrogn Corp.’s
annual earnings growth comparisons averaging better than the minimum
guideline (except for 2002). According to Daily Graphs (a product of
William O'Neil + Co. not affiliated with CANSLIM.net) the
Growth Rate is listed at 59%, based on the company's 3-5 year
earnings history.
Year |
EPS |
%+/- |
Stock Price |
High |
Low |
1998 |
0.23 |
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1999 |
0.60 |
N/A |
67 |
12 |
2000 |
1.07 |
78% |
99 |
36 |
2001 |
1.71 |
59.8% |
87 |
38 |
2002 |
1.81 |
5.8% |
64 |
25 |
2003 |
2.22 est. |
22.7%
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71
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28
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Acceleration -
Sales revenues have shown accelerating growth
in recent quarterly comparisons, as the past three
reports have shown:
$161.8 million in Dec '02 versus $153.3
million in Dec '01 (+6%)
$180.6 million in Mar '03 versus $159.9
million in Mar '02 (+13%)
$192.4 million in Jun '03 versus $164.3 million in Jun '01
(+17%)
$196.9 million in Sep '03 versus $162.6
million in Sep '02 (+21%)
New
Highs in the Stock’s Price, New Management, New Products
Services -
At time
of this report, IVGN is within 1.2% of a 52-week high in price. Its
next important challenge will be to top its November 2000 peak at
$87.44, then its March 2000 peak at $99.50. Likely, IVGN
will encounter some lingering psychological resistance as it approaches
these previous highs, but most investors who bought earlier near those
highs would presumably have sold during the early-2002 plunge to the mid-$20's (to a low of $25.23 on October 25, 2002).
In May of
2003, Greg Lucier became Invitrogen’s new CEO, and it is no coincidence
that his appointment coincides with IVGN’s recent bullish run.
Formerly head of the Medical Information Systems Technology Group
at General Electric Co., Lucier oversaw nearly a three-fold increase in
that group’s annual sales (to $1.8 billion) over a three-year period.
Envisioning human health care to be a growth leader in the next
decade, he wants to position Invitrogen at its forefront by providing
services and technologies to pharma and biotech companies as they
introduce a variety of new drugs.
Lucier’s first priorities were to improve cash flow management, to remodel
the company’s sales model, and to implement in their molecular biology
business the organizational structure of their highly successful
cell-cultural business. He
believes the human health care sector is in its infancy, recently saying:
“We are in some ways like the computer industry in 1981. We’re just getting going, and companies are just starting to
form and become strong.”
Supply
of Stock
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With
51.1 million shares outstanding, 46.5
million shares in the float, and a 50-day average volume
of 803,800 there is complete share turnover every
58 days; compare that turnover ratio to GE’s 486
days. Banks and
mutual funds collectively as Institutional
investors own 53% of the shares according to
William O'Neil + Co's Daily Graphs. In a stock with such a reasonably small supply,
the institutional buyers have tremendous leverage. Further, during the fourth quarter of 2003, 12
top-rated funds (those top 15% performers) added $75
million to their positions in IVGN. Management
owns 2% of the outstanding shares, which
motivates them to see to it that the share price remains
on its recent upward path. As of December 8, 3003,
there is short interest of approximately 5.9 days
times 803,800 shares (its 50-day avg volume) or
about 4.75 million shares short (10.2% of
its float), which is not an unusual amount (5.13
million shares held shot in the prior month). A breakout above its pivot price ($70.94) may
well get a further boost from shorts as they rush to
cover their positions (“short squeeze”).
Leading
Company in a Leading Group - Invitrogen (IVGN) is the
ranked as the best overall stock in the Medical-biomed/biotech group which
contains 227 companies and is ranked 55th on IBD's list of
197 industry groups. One
concern is that this group rank has fallen off from being ranked 16th three months ago, and 4th six months ago.
Year-to-date this group is +3.7%, and meanwhile the Nasdaq
Composite is +4.2%, and the S&P 500 Index is +0.9%, the Dow
Industrials are +0.0%, and the Russell 2000 is +3.3%
year-to-date. This helps assure us that the group is among those
most worthy of consideration.
Other fundamentally sound and technically strong stocks within the group
recently have included
Gen-probe Inc. (GPRO), Martek BioSciences (MATK), Qiagen Nv (QGENF),
Techne Corp. (TECH), and QLT Inc. (QLTI).
Institutional
Sponsorship -
The recent technical trading action has been indicative of buying by
institutional investors (mutual funds, banks, insurance companies, pension
funds, etc.), and there has been a greater number shares purchased than
sold by them. Data in the tables below is presumed to be accurate as
of December 31, 2003, and may not indicate some of the most recent
activity.
Ownership Summary
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# Institutions: |
257 |
3 Mo. Shares Purchased: |
19,598,793 |
3 Mo. Shares Sold: |
(12,499,825) |
3 Mo. Net Change: |
7,098,968 |
Top
Institutional Holders |
Institution Name |
Shares Held |
Position Value
(000) |
% Shs. Out. |
Portfolio Date |
FIDELITY
MGMT & RESEARCH CO |
3,764,954 |
$218,141.43 |
7.38% |
9/30/2003 |
MFS
INVESTMENT MGMT |
2,940,020 |
$170,344.76 |
5.76% |
9/30/2003 |
ARTISAN
PARTNERS |
1,888,600 |
$109,425.48 |
3.70% |
9/30/2003 |
STATE
STREET GLOBAL ADVISORS |
1,828,788 |
$105,959.98 |
3.59% |
9/30/2003 |
JANUS
CAPITAL CORP |
1,800,035 |
$104,294.03 |
3.53% |
9/30/2003 |
AMERICAN
CENTURY INVESTMENTS |
1,557,605 |
$90,247.63 |
3.05% |
9/30/2003 |
PUTNAM
INVESTMENT MGMT |
1,549,101 |
$89,754.91 |
3.04% |
9/30/2003 |
TEMPLETON
GLOBAL ADVISORS |
1,368,500 |
$79,290.89 |
2.68% |
9/30/2003 |
T
ROWE PRICE ASSOCIATES |
1,308,773 |
$75,830.31 |
2.57% |
9/30/2003 |
CALAMOS
ASSET MGMT |
1,179,090 |
$68,316.47 |
2.31% |
9/30/2003 |
MATADOR
CAPITAL MANAGEMENT CORPORATION/FL |
1,148,000 |
$66,515.12 |
2.25% |
9/30/2003 |
BARCLAYS
GLOBAL INVESTORS INTL |
1,108,828 |
$64,245.49 |
2.17% |
9/30/2003 |
AXA
ROSENBERG INVESTMENT MGMT |
969,661 |
$56,182.16 |
1.90% |
9/30/2003 |
SELIGMAN
(JW) & CO |
910,800 |
$52,771.75 |
1.79% |
9/30/2003 |
AMERICAN
EXPRESS FINANCIAL |
830,711 |
$48,131.40 |
1.63% |
9/30/2003 |
*Institutional holdings as a percentage of the current shares
outstanding.
**Hypothetical value based on price of $69.36 as of 09-Jan-04. Position
may have increased or decreased since the report date.
Top
Buyers |
Institution Name |
Shares Purchased |
Shares Purchased
Value (000) |
Shares Held |
Portfolio Date |
MFS
INVESTMENT MGMT |
1,602,170 |
$118,971.32 |
2,940,020 |
9/30/2003 |
FIDELITY
MGMT & RESEARCH CO |
1,037,289 |
$113,399.10 |
3,764,954 |
9/30/2003 |
JANUS
CAPITAL CORP |
1,555,055 |
$94,886.80 |
1,800,035 |
9/30/2003 |
PUTNAM
INVESTMENT MGMT |
1,112,602 |
$72,993.35 |
1,549,101 |
9/30/2003 |
CALAMOS
ASSET MGMT + |
1,179,090 |
$68,316.47 |
1,179,090 |
9/30/2003 |
SELIGMAN
(JW) & CO + |
910,800 |
$52,771.75 |
910,800 |
9/30/2003 |
STATE
STREET GLOBAL ADVISORS |
311,370 |
$47,691.13 |
1,828,788 |
9/30/2003 |
ARTISAN
PARTNERS |
83,300 |
$40,101.96 |
1,888,600 |
9/30/2003 |
AXA
ROSENBERG INVESTMENT MGMT |
539,704 |
$39,671.81 |
969,661 |
9/30/2003 |
AMERICAN
CENTURY INVESTMENTS |
226,681 |
$39,140.15 |
1,557,605 |
9/30/2003 |
TEMPLETON
GLOBAL ADVISORS |
221,500 |
$35,246.09 |
1,368,500 |
9/30/2003 |
INVESCO
FUNDS GROUP (DENVER) + |
600,200 |
$34,775.59 |
600,200 |
9/30/2003 |
AIM
CAPITAL MGMT (HOUSTON) |
528,630 |
$34,286.71 |
715,830 |
9/30/2003 |
T
ROWE PRICE ASSOCIATES |
225,900 |
$34,247.98 |
1,308,773 |
9/30/2003 |
OPPENHEIMERFUNDS |
544,000 |
$32,906.70 |
615,000 |
9/30/2003 |
Market
Direction - Technically, the major
indices are extended well above their ascending trend lines. Pictured
above, the S&P 500 Index has bounced off its trend line (shown in green)
several times in the past six months.
Currently, however, it is greatly extended above this line.
Its 50-day moving average has also provided support since the Index
closed above it on March 17, 2003. As shown on its
weekly chart though, the S&P 500 Index is nearing a major area of
resistance. There is not yet any clear signal of a broad-based pullback,
even though many folks are and have been expecting one.
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REPORT |
UPDATES |
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01/14/04:
IVGN broke out to a
new 52-week high today on greater than average
volume. Closing in the top 20 percent of its daily
range was another bullish development as was the
price confirmation of the On-Balance-Volume's new
high. Two pieces of data support further price
growth from here: (1) 10.8 percent of the shares in
its float had been sold short as of 12/8/03
(covering these short positions will add to the
buying pressure); and (2) next year's PEG ratio [todays
price/'04 earnings estimate/('03 to '04 earnings
growth)] is 0.90, reflective of the value remaining
in these shares (PEG values less than 1.0 support
price growth, especially for fundamentally strong
companies. One caveat though, IVGN has been on a
bullish tare since last April, running up from $28,
and several times during that run, it has pulled
back to the vicinity of its 50-day moving average.
The market is overbought here and beginning to run
into major overhead resistance. If the market pulls
back, so will IVGN. Look to add to your positions as
long as IVGN's closing price remains above its
50-day average.
01/15/04:
IVGN
continued its bullish move today, making a new
52-week high ($74.40) before closing at $73.75.
It also broke through the high established
during October of '01($73.79), then retraced to
close near it. Tomorrow, it could continue up (using
the prior high as support) or pullback (using the
prior high as resistance).
Buyers
should be aware of three other technical points: (1)
the last five days produced bullish candles on
volume exceeding its 50-day volume moving average (a
lot of buying pressure for this run up); (2) it’s
not surprise that the buying supporting today's run
is institutional;
and (3) since IVGN's bullish run began in April, its
price has been bound by its Bollinger Bands
(20-period, 2-standard deviation), reversing at the
bands or midway between them (at the 20-day moving
average). The first two are very bullish, while the
third indicates that we're once again close to an
area where a short pullback reversal can be
expected. The
next price targets are the highs of June '01
($79.77) and then November '00 ($87.44).
Please
let us know if you have any questions about this
stock, as we would be glad to assist you. |
This report was prepared by
Richard W. Miller and the staff of CANSLIM.net. Richard is a statistics
professional and serious trader with years of technical, analysis-based
trading. He currently manages six different portfolios. He maintains his own
website
of stock analysis.
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