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Invitrogen Corporation

 
 COMPANY     STATS           
 
Ticker Symbol: IVGN - Nasdaq
Industry Group: Medical-biomed/biotech
Price: $70.76 (at close 01/12/04)
Day's Volume: 1,048,800 (01/09/04)
50-day Average Volume: : 803,800
52 Wk High:
$70.94
52 WK Low: $: $28.04
Shares Outstanding: 51.1 Million
Shares In Float: 46.5 Million
Up/Down Volume Ratio:
1.3 

Headquarters:
1600 Faraday Avenue
Carlsbad, CA 92008
Phone: (760) 603-7200
Fax: (760) 602-6500
E-mail: Contact Page on Website
Website: http://www.invitrogen.com

 
 COMPANY     PROFILE          

Profile: Invitrogen Corporation is a leading supplier of molecular biology reagents and kits, and cell culture products for life science research and biopharmaceutical production. They offer over 10,000 products that help life scientists isolate and analyze genes and proteins in order to understand the molecular basis of disease. The company's products and services support academic and government research institutions, and pharmaceutical and biotech companies worldwide in their efforts to improve the human condition. Essentially, the company develops research tools for biotechs and drug makers by providing essential life science technologies for disease research, drug discovery, and commercial bio-production. Invitrogen's own research and development efforts are focused on breakthrough innovation in all major areas of biological discovery including functional genomics, proteomics, bio-informatics and cell biology -- placing Invitrogen's products in nearly every major laboratory in the world. Today, Invitrogen's products are used globally in life science applications such as:

  • Study of the cellular and genetic bases of diseases including cancer, diabetes, AIDS, cystic fibrosis, and Down's syndrome

  • Development of cell and gene therapies used in bone marrow transplants, wound healing, and burn treatment

  • Large-scale manufacture of genetically engineered health care products, including human and animal vaccines, and therapeutic drugs 

Additionally, the company actively acquires health-related businesses that complement its own skill base, acquiring four in the past 16 months. It conducts business in more than 70 countries around the world, and globally it employs approximately 3,000 scientists and other professionals.

Financials StockTalk News  Chart  SEC  Zacks Reports

Technical Chart Analysis: 
The above daily chart and linked weekly chart show that IVGN spent 2003 on a strong bullish run - forming the right side of a multi-year cup.  After gapping above both its 50- and 200-day moving averages on April 25, 2003, it closed above the 50 DMA the rest of the year.  Further, it pulled back to the support of its 50-day moving average five times during that period (four of which are shown above):  the last three were used to draw a supporting trend line (green).  Also, in the five-month period depicted above, 25 days produced an increased price on volume exceeding its moving average (black bars above moving average line), whereas only 10 days produced a lower price on such a volume increase (red volume bars above the moving average line).  Clearly, this suggests that its shares have been under accumulation.  The on balance volume trend bears that out.

The ideal buy point for IVGN shares has been tough to find, as it has not spent much time basing.   It is more fair to say it has been building an ascending base.   One could, however, use a pivot point 10 cents above its recent high of $70.94 (December 29, 2003), or $71.04, and look to enter a new position as high as 5% higher (making the limit to buy at $74.51).

What to look for?
Price is likely to climb quickly if the stock manages to rise beyond its pivot point with a meaningful trading volume increase.  It may well encounter resistance at its 2000 peaks ($87.44 in November 2000 and $99.50 in March 2000). Disciplined investors may wish to buy IVGN upon clearing its pivot point, as well as accumulate on any ordinary dips, so long as there is not a technical breakdown.  Any heavy selling resulting in a close below its trend line on very heavy volume would be considered a sell signal.  A break below its 50-day moving average line (currently near its trend line) would add even greater concern.  We always recommend limiting losses at 7-8% and suggest exiting any position that closes below its 50-day moving average and/or violates areas of prior support with any technical significance. 

 
 CANSLIM     COMPARATIVE           

Current Quarterly EarningsThe table below shows how the past four earnings announcements have been versus the same quarter one year earlier, leading off with the oldest and ending with the latest reported quarterly results. Notice how the percentage growth has been increasing over this period, or what we call earnings growth acceleration.

Percentage Change in Earnings Versus Year Earlier

Quarter Ended Earnings Percentage +/-
December 31st 2002 0.39 +3%
March 31st, 2003 0.52 +13%
June 30th, 2003 0.56 +14%
September 30th, 2003 0.57 +24%

Invitrogen Corp. will release its Fourth Quarter Financial Results on Friday, February 13, 2003. Analysts expect it to report quarterly earnings of between $0.55 to $0.57. As well, on January 6, 2004, this company raised its 2004 revenue estimate from $890 million to $1 billion.

EARNINGS PER SHARE*

Quarters

2002

2003

MAR

0.46

0.52

JUN

0.49

0.56

SEP

0.46

0.57

DEC

0.39

0.57 est 

Totals

1.80

2.22

Note:  Units in U.S. Dollars


Annual Earnings - - When applying CANSLIM there should be meaningful annual earnings growth over the last three to five years. The average annual compounded growth rate of earnings in the superior firms should be from 15% to 50% per year or more.  Despite a steady decline between 1999 and 2002 in earnings growth, a review of the table below shows Invitrogn Corp.’s annual earnings growth comparisons averaging better than the minimum guideline (except for 2002).  According to Daily Graphs (a product of William O'Neil + Co. not affiliated with CANSLIM.net) the Growth Rate is listed at 59%, based on the company's 3-5 year earnings history.

 

Year

EPS %+/- Stock Price 
High Low
1998 0.23      
1999 0.60 N/A 67 12
2000 1.07 78% 99 36
2001 1.71 59.8% 87 38
2002 1.81 5.8% 64 25
2003 2.22 est. 22.7% 71 28

Acceleration - Sales revenues have shown accelerating growth in recent quarterly comparisons, as the past three reports have shown: 
$161.8 million in Dec '02 versus $153.3 million in Dec '01 (+6%)
$180.6
million in Mar '03 versus $159.9 million in Mar '02 (+13%)
$192.4 million in Jun '03 versus $164.3 million in Jun '01  (+17%)
$196.9 million in Sep '03 versus $162.6 million in Sep '02 (+21%)


New Highs in the Stock’s Price, New Management, New Products Services

At time of this report, IVGN is within 1.2% of a 52-week high in price. Its next important challenge will be to top its November 2000 peak at $87.44, then its March 2000 peak at $99.50.  Likely, IVGN will encounter some lingering psychological resistance as it approaches these previous highs, but most investors who bought earlier near those highs would presumably have sold during the early-2002 plunge to the mid-$20's (to a low of $25.23 on October 25, 2002).

In May of 2003, Greg Lucier became Invitrogen’s new CEO, and it is no coincidence that his appointment coincides with IVGN’s recent bullish run.  Formerly head of the Medical Information Systems Technology Group at General Electric Co., Lucier oversaw nearly a three-fold increase in that group’s annual sales (to $1.8 billion) over a three-year period.  Envisioning human health care to be a growth leader in the next decade, he wants to position Invitrogen at its forefront by providing services and technologies to pharma and biotech companies as they introduce a variety of new drugs.  Lucier’s first priorities were to improve cash flow management, to remodel the company’s sales model, and to implement in their molecular biology business the organizational structure of their highly successful cell-cultural business.  He believes the human health care sector is in its infancy, recently saying: “We are in some ways like the computer industry in 1981.  We’re just getting going, and companies are just starting to form and become strong.”


Supply of Stock - With 51.1 million shares outstanding, 46.5 million shares in the float, and a 50-day average volume of 803,800 there is complete share turnover every 58 days; compare that turnover ratio to GE’s 486 days.  Banks and mutual funds collectively as Institutional investors own 53% of the shares according to William O'Neil + Co's Daily Graphs.  In a stock with such a reasonably small supply, the institutional buyers have tremendous leverage. Further, during the fourth quarter of 2003, 12 top-rated funds (those top 15% performers) added $75 million to their positions in IVGN.  Management owns 2% of the outstanding shares, which motivates them to see to it that the share price remains on its recent upward path.  As of December 8, 3003, there is short interest of approximately 5.9 days times 803,800 shares (its 50-day avg volume) or about 4.75 million shares short (10.2% of its float), which is not an unusual amount (5.13 million shares held shot in the prior month).  A breakout above its pivot price ($70.94) may well get a further boost from shorts as they rush to cover their positions (“short squeeze”).


Leading Company in a Leading Group - Invitrogen (IVGN) is the ranked as the best overall stock in the Medical-biomed/biotech group which contains 227 companies and is ranked 55th on IBD's list of 197 industry groups.  One concern is that this group rank has fallen off from being ranked 16th three months ago, and 4th six months ago.  Year-to-date this group is +3.7%, and meanwhile the Nasdaq Composite is +4.2%, and the S&P 500 Index is +0.9%, the Dow Industrials are +0.0%, and the Russell 2000 is +3.3% year-to-date.  This helps assure us that the group is among those most worthy of consideration.   Other fundamentally sound and technically strong stocks within the group recently have included Gen-probe Inc. (GPRO), Martek BioSciences (MATK), Qiagen Nv (QGENF), Techne Corp. (TECH), and QLT Inc. (QLTI).


Institutional Sponsorship

The recent technical trading action has been indicative of buying by institutional investors (mutual funds, banks, insurance companies, pension funds, etc.), and there has been a greater number shares purchased than sold by them.  Data in the tables below is presumed to be accurate as of December 31, 2003, and may not indicate some of the most recent activity. 

Ownership Summary

# Institutions: 257
3 Mo. Shares Purchased: 19,598,793
3 Mo. Shares Sold: (12,499,825)
3 Mo. Net Change:

7,098,968

 

Top Institutional Holders
Institution Name Shares Held Position Value (000) % Shs. Out. Portfolio Date
FIDELITY MGMT & RESEARCH CO 3,764,954 $218,141.43 7.38% 9/30/2003
MFS INVESTMENT MGMT 2,940,020 $170,344.76 5.76% 9/30/2003
ARTISAN PARTNERS 1,888,600 $109,425.48 3.70% 9/30/2003
STATE STREET GLOBAL ADVISORS 1,828,788 $105,959.98 3.59% 9/30/2003
JANUS CAPITAL CORP 1,800,035 $104,294.03 3.53% 9/30/2003
AMERICAN CENTURY INVESTMENTS 1,557,605 $90,247.63 3.05% 9/30/2003
PUTNAM INVESTMENT MGMT 1,549,101 $89,754.91 3.04% 9/30/2003
TEMPLETON GLOBAL ADVISORS 1,368,500 $79,290.89 2.68% 9/30/2003
T ROWE PRICE ASSOCIATES 1,308,773 $75,830.31 2.57% 9/30/2003
CALAMOS ASSET MGMT 1,179,090 $68,316.47 2.31% 9/30/2003
MATADOR CAPITAL MANAGEMENT CORPORATION/FL 1,148,000 $66,515.12 2.25% 9/30/2003
BARCLAYS GLOBAL INVESTORS INTL 1,108,828 $64,245.49 2.17% 9/30/2003
AXA ROSENBERG INVESTMENT MGMT 969,661 $56,182.16 1.90% 9/30/2003
SELIGMAN (JW) & CO 910,800 $52,771.75 1.79% 9/30/2003
AMERICAN EXPRESS FINANCIAL 830,711 $48,131.40 1.63% 9/30/2003

*Institutional holdings as a percentage of the current shares outstanding.
**Hypothetical value based on price of $69.36 as of 09-Jan-04. Position may have increased or decreased since the report date.

Top Buyers
Institution Name Shares Purchased Shares Purchased
Value (000)
Shares Held Portfolio Date
MFS INVESTMENT MGMT 1,602,170 $118,971.32 2,940,020 9/30/2003
FIDELITY MGMT & RESEARCH CO 1,037,289 $113,399.10 3,764,954 9/30/2003
JANUS CAPITAL CORP 1,555,055 $94,886.80 1,800,035 9/30/2003
PUTNAM INVESTMENT MGMT 1,112,602 $72,993.35 1,549,101 9/30/2003
CALAMOS ASSET MGMT + 1,179,090 $68,316.47 1,179,090 9/30/2003
SELIGMAN (JW) & CO + 910,800 $52,771.75 910,800 9/30/2003
STATE STREET GLOBAL ADVISORS 311,370 $47,691.13 1,828,788 9/30/2003
ARTISAN PARTNERS 83,300 $40,101.96 1,888,600 9/30/2003
AXA ROSENBERG INVESTMENT MGMT 539,704 $39,671.81 969,661 9/30/2003
AMERICAN CENTURY INVESTMENTS 226,681 $39,140.15 1,557,605 9/30/2003
TEMPLETON GLOBAL ADVISORS 221,500 $35,246.09 1,368,500 9/30/2003
INVESCO FUNDS GROUP (DENVER) + 600,200 $34,775.59 600,200 9/30/2003
AIM CAPITAL MGMT (HOUSTON) 528,630 $34,286.71 715,830 9/30/2003
T ROWE PRICE ASSOCIATES 225,900 $34,247.98 1,308,773 9/30/2003
OPPENHEIMERFUNDS 544,000 $32,906.70 615,000 9/30/2003

Market Direction Technically, the major indices are extended well above their ascending trend lines.  Pictured above, the S&P 500 Index has bounced off its trend line (shown in green) several times in the past six months.  Currently, however, it is greatly extended above this line.  Its 50-day moving average has also provided support since the Index closed above it on March 17, 2003. As shown on its weekly chart though, the S&P 500 Index is nearing a major area of resistance.  There is not yet any clear signal of a broad-based pullback, even though many folks are and have been expecting one.  

 

 
 REPORT     UPDATES              
01/14/04:

IVGN broke out to a new 52-week high today on greater than average volume. Closing in the top 20 percent of its daily range was another bullish development as was the price confirmation of the On-Balance-Volume's new high. Two pieces of data support further price growth from here: (1) 10.8 percent of the shares in its float had been sold short as of 12/8/03 (covering these short positions will add to the buying pressure); and (2) next year's PEG ratio [todays price/'04 earnings estimate/('03 to '04 earnings growth)] is 0.90, reflective of the value remaining in these shares (PEG values less than 1.0 support price growth, especially for fundamentally strong companies. One caveat though, IVGN has been on a bullish tare since last April, running up from $28, and several times during that run, it has pulled back to the vicinity of its 50-day moving average. The market is overbought here and beginning to run into major overhead resistance. If the market pulls back, so will IVGN. Look to add to your positions as long as IVGN's closing price remains above its 50-day average.

01/15/04:

IVGN continued its bullish move today, making a new 52-week high ($74.40) before closing at $73.75.  It also broke through the high established during October of '01($73.79), then retraced to close near it. Tomorrow, it could continue up (using the prior high as support) or pullback (using the prior high as resistance).

Buyers should be aware of three other technical points: (1) the last five days produced bullish candles on volume exceeding its 50-day volume moving average (a lot of buying pressure for this run up); (2) it’s not surprise that the buying supporting today's run is institutional; and (3) since IVGN's bullish run began in April, its price has been bound by its Bollinger Bands (20-period, 2-standard deviation), reversing at the bands or midway between them (at the 20-day moving average). The first two are very bullish, while the third indicates that we're once again close to an area where a short pullback reversal can be expected.  The next price targets are the highs of June '01 ($79.77) and then November '00 ($87.44).

Please let us know if you have any questions about this stock, as we would be glad to assist you.

This report was prepared by Richard W. Miller and the staff of CANSLIM.net. Richard is a statistics professional and serious trader with years of technical, analysis-based trading. He currently manages six different portfolios. He maintains his own website of stock analysis.

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