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Usually Not Ideal Choices When Base Pattern Has Flaws
Monday, June 21, 2010   CANSLIM.net
 

The current market (M criteria) conditions have improved since a follow-through-day recently confirmed a new rally. That is not a reason to select stocks with flaws in their bases, and it is not a guarantee that perfect-looking leaders will go on to rally substantially either.  Investors usually have the best odds when they remain disciplined and trade based upon the long-standing guidelines of the fact-based investment system.

High-ranked Internet - Content firm Baidu.com, Inc. (BIDU +$2.27 or +3.05% to $76.36) gapped up today and posted a gain with above average volume, but it closed in the lower third of its intra-day range, finishing the session below its 6/03/10 high (and closing price).  In the paper it was recently labeled an "irregular double bottom" pattern with a pivot point based upon that day's high plus ten cents. Others might chose to call it a choppy 6-week base with a higher pivot point based upon its all-time high, or they might simply wait for a better base pattern to eventually form. 

BIDU has a stellar sales and earnings history that satisfies the C & A criteria, in fact, the quarter ended March 31, 2010 showed sales revenues and earnings growth accelerating impressively. However, it saw a slight decline in the number of top-rated funds owning shares from being reported at 204 in Dec '09 to 201 in Mar '10. Another concern that makes it a less favorable candidate under the system guidelines is the lack of leadership (L criteria) in the group, with the Internet - Content group currently ranked very low. Yet, a reassuring characteristic to its consolidation is that it has found support at its 50-day moving average (DMA) line. Volume totals have also cooled behind recent distribution days since its worrisome negative reversal from its all-time high on 5/13/10. Its share price was impacted by a 10:1 stock split as of 5/12/10, and the split reduced the share price while it greatly increased the supply of shares (S criteria) outstanding.  The best market winners typically has smaller supplies closer to its pre-split levels.

Keep in mind that BIDU has traded up more than 8-fold, and it has not been a smooth ride since it first featured on Monday, October 30, 2006 in the CANSLIM.net Mid Day Breakouts Report (read here). After making great progress it went through a multi-month consolidation under its 50 and 20 DMA lines, then later returned as a noteworthy leader featured in CANSLIM.net reports. An annotated graph showed a vivid picture at the beginning of the stock's period of greatest weakness back on January 11, 2008 under the headline, "Weakness Hurting Chances For Featured Favorite" (read here). Take a look back at that now!  Remember that a dropped stock can be featured again in a future CANSLIM.net report if it repairs its technical damage and forms a new pivot point.

About : Kenneth J. Gruneisen - Passed the CAN SLIMĀ® Master's Exam
Kenneth J. Gruneisen started out as a licensed stockbroker in August 1987, a couple of months prior to the historic stock market crash that took the Dow Jones Industrial Average down -22.6% in a single day. He has published daily fact-based fundamental and technical analysis on high-ranked stocks online for two decades. Through FACTBASEDINVESTING.COM, Kenneth provides educational articles, news, market commentary, and other information regarding proven investment systems that work in good times and bad.


Comments contained in the body of this report are technical opinions only and are not necessarily those of Gruneisen Growth Corp. The material herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable and accurate, however, its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Our firm, employees, and customers may effect transactions, including transactions contrary to any recommendation herein, or have positions in the securities mentioned herein or options with respect thereto. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors and it is not to be deemed an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the purchase or sale of any securities.
You can contact Kenneth J. Gruneisen - Passed the CAN SLIMĀ® Master's Exam at kengruneisen@gmail.com

 
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Kenneth J. Gruneisen founded Gruneisen Growth Corp. (2003), which prior to May 11, 2015, operated CANSLIM.net and CANSLIM.com both under license from Data Analysis Inc. / Investor's Business Daily. Kenneth has passed the CAN SLIM® Master's Exam. Gruneisen Growth Corp. now continues over two decades of fact based market analysis via FactBasedInvesting.com.

Copyright © 1996-2024 Gruneisen Growth Corp. All rights reserved. Protected by the copyright laws of the United States and Canada and by international treaties

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