Gerdau Ameristeel Corp. (GNA) Monday, June 23, 2008 - CANSLIM.net |
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CANSLIM.net Company Profile: Gerdau Ameristeel Corporation, through its subsidiaries, operates steel mini-mills in the United States and Canada. The company operates through two segments, Minimills and Downstream Operations. The Minimills segment manufactures and markets various steel products, including reinforcing steel bars, merchant bars, structural shapes, beams, special sections, coiled wire rods, and flat rolled sheets. The Downstream Operations segment offers rebar fabrication and epoxy coating, railroad spikes, and cold drawn products, as well as engages in super light beam processing; and the production of elevator guide rails, grinding balls, wire mesh, collated nails, wire drawing, and fence posts. It sells its products to steel service centers, steel fabricators, and original equipment manufacturers for use in various industries, including non-residential, infrastructure, commercial, industrial and residential construction, metal building, manufacturing, mining, automotive, cellular and electrical transmission, and equipment manufacturing industries. The company, formerly known as Co-Steel, Inc., was founded in 1970 and is based in Tampa, Florida. Gerdau Ameristeel Corporation is a subsidiary of Gerdau S.A. GNA hails from the Metal Proc & Fabrication group which is presently ranked 13th on the 197 Industry Groups list easily placing it in the top quartile needed to satisfy the L criteria. Return on Equity at +19% is above guidelines. The number of top-rated funds with an ownership interest has grown from 46 funds in June '07 to 74 funds as of March '08, a sign of increasing institutional interest (the I criteria). Management owns +68% of the stock which helps keep their interest in line with shareholders', however this large interest also makes future share offerings (which could be dilutive) more likely. What to Look For and What to Look Out For: Look for the stock to continue advancing which reaffirms its recent technical buy signal (May 5, 2008). However, much of a stock's success depends on the broader market's ability to sustain a meaningful rally; otherwise 3 out of 4 stocks are likely to struggle. Deterioration under the recent chart high ($18.34 on 5/21) could lead to a more serious pullback. A formidable area of technical support comes into play at a 6-month upward trendline, approximately $17.20 at time of writing. Watch for an eventual test of support at its 50 DMA line, where a violation and weak close would trigger a definitive technical sell signal. Technical Analysis: GNA blasted above its pivot point on very heavy volume on May 5, 2008 which triggered its latest technical buy signal. It cleared a long multi-month base by rallying above the $16-16.50 level on heavy volume, blasting above a stubborn resistance area. Over the past six months, GNA has been steadily advancing and, in the process, has traced out a well defined upward trendline (shown above). Now the stock has risen free of all resistance due to overhead supply, with healthy price and volume action that is a strong sign of institutional buying demand (satisfying the I criteria). However, the stock is currently trading above its maximum buy price and is currently considered too extended to be considered buyable under the proper guidelines. Until the stock builds a new base (which will offer another buy point) or pulls back to a strong technical area (upward trendline, 50 DMA line or prior chart high), patience is paramount. |
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