CANSLIM.net Stock Bulletins - CNTY
04/08/05 - CANSLIM.net

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Friday, April 8th, 2005 | 12:40 PM

 

 

Century Casinos, Inc.

- Frank E. Testa, CANSLIM.net Contributor

Ticker Symbol: CNTY

Industry Group: Leisure-gaming/equip

Shares Outstanding: 13.7 Million

Price: $9.72

Day's Volume: 524,900 (April 7th volume total)

Shares in Float: 5.34 Million

52 Week High: $9.94

50-Day Average Volume: 100,700

Up/Down Volume Ratio: 1.5

Pivot Point: $9.87 (12/22/04 high plus $0.10)

Pivot Point +5% = Max Buy Price: $10.36

Web Address: cnty.com


C A N S L I M, StockTalk, News, Chart , SEC, Zacks Reports     Chart courtesy www.stockcharts.com

Century Casinos, Inc. - Quarterly Comparisons Versus The Year Earlier

Quarter:

12/31/03 

03/31/04 

06/30/04 

09/30/04 

Earnings:

$0.06  vs $0.04

+50%

$0.06  vs $0.05

+20%

$0.07  vs $0.05

+40%

$0.08 vs $0.06

+33%

Sales ($Mil):

8.2 vs 7.1

+15%

8.1 vs 7.4

+10%

8.9 vs 7.6

+17%

9.7 vs 8.3

+17%

Century Casinos, Inc. (CNTY $9.85) is an international casino company that owns and operates casinos and hotels in Colorado, South Africa, and the Czech Republic. It operates casinos aboard the ultra-luxury vessels of Silversea Cruises, The World of ResidenSea, and Oceania Cruises, owning 50% of and providing technical casino services to the Casino Millennium in the Marriott Hotel in Prague. Solid increases in quarterly earnings per share are meeting the minimum 25%+ guidelines and appear on pace to continue at above that rate based on consensus estimates.  Management’s 24% ownership stake aligns its interest with shareholders.  Institutional ownership during the fourth quarter reportedly rose by 855,000 shares and now represents approximately 24% of the total shares outstanding.  CNTY hails from the 41 member Leisure-gaming/equipment group, ranked 18th out of the 197 industry groups tracked, solidly in the top quartile - where the odds increase that you will find a winner.

What to Look For and What to Look Out For: Stocks trading at under $15, or $12, or $10 per share are also more often discouraged per strict CANSLIM interpretation, and there are other concerns that deserve mention when considering all other key criteria. Over the past year, the company’s financials have shown tremendous improvement with four consecutive double-digit percentage gains in quarterly sales revenues, although growth in revenues is not at a 25%+ rate which would be preferred under the guidelines. One other concern is that its Return on Equity (ROE) is reported at 11%, below the 17% guideline. While the major indices have bounced off key technical support areas, the market's lack of heavy volume behind meaningful gains also raises a red flag and serious questions as to the level of institutional conviction behind the broad market's rally attempt.  That hurts investors' odds.  Consequently, it is advised that aggressive investors should go lightly on the gas pedal, as caution is especially important when investing in low priced, micro-cap stocks. Deterioration leading to a close under its 03/01/05 high close of $9.20 would negate the bullish 04/07/05 action and be cause for concern.  Stop losses at 7-8% are always advised, and a violation of the 50 DMA on heavy volume would be considered a technical sell signal.  To confirm the breakout to new 15-week highs, watch for it to build on its recent gains, preferably with another good advance on above average volume. This would be considered an important follow-through day, or added confirmation that the uptrend in the stock has institutional conviction sufficient enough to lead to a sustained advance.

Technical Analysis: Following a run-up to the $9.77 intra-day high on 12/22/04, shares of CNTY stalled, then fell sharply on January 3rd and 4th during the market's steep slide, violating its 50-day moving average line (the blue line on the above graph). The following rally above its 50 DMA lacked meaningful volume and quickly failed, and its next drop went a few pennies below its $7.12 low of January 12th, when on February 15th it hit $7.08 before improving to a close near that session's high for a negligible loss. From that bottom it rallied back above its 50 DMA with heavy trading volume indicating that great buying conviction was returning on February 24th. Three additional days of gains on above average volume followed, lifting it above an "earlier pivot point" at the high of the W between those lows.  This completed what resembles a "double bottom" chart pattern - which typically are considered to have bullish indications. Note also that on March 8th it staged a breakout attempt, climbing to $9.62 intra-day only to succumb to selling pressure that knocked the stock back into its base.  Despite the bearish reversal, it held its ground, even while the broader market cratered in March.  In fact, the stock traded in a very tight formation for several weeks before exploding on five-times average daily volume on April 7th to a new high close of $9.85. The price/volume action over the past 50 days has resulted in a bullish up/down volume ratio of 1.5. Other traits pointing to higher prices include its relative strength line (not shown) confirming the new highs ahead of its price breakout.  In addition, the stock has posted four weekly gains on above average volume versus two weekly losses on above average volume during its 15-week base. 


Chart courtesy www.stockcharts.com

In terms of candlestick chart analysis, on the above graph it formed a bullish hammer on February 15th as it closed near the session’s high after a moderate intra-day sell-off. This also coincided with it reaching prior lows (January 12th) or technical chart support that set the stage for a rally. The stock attracted clear buying demand in late February, rising to the $9.25 area on above average volume.  In textbook fashion, the issue eased as volume dried up. The March 8th failed reversal session qualified as a “shooting star” in candlestick terminology.  This formation entails a small real body because the stock closes near the session’s opening price and at the lower end of its intra-day range, with a long upper shadow (sometimes called "wicks") represented by the session’s high. The April 7th session is referred to as a “bullish belt-hold line” in candlestick analysis, as the stock opened near the session’s low and closed well above its opening price, although in this instance it fell $0.02 shy of its pivot point of $9.87 chosen for this analysis.

Comments contained in the body of this report are technical opinions only. The material herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable and accurate, however, its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Our firm, employees, and customers may effect transactions, including transactions contrary to any recommendation herein, or have positions in the securities mentioned herein or options with respect thereto. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors and it is not to be deemed an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the purchase or sale of any securities.

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