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Healthcare Firm in Healthy Shape But Market Needs to Improve
Wednesday, June 04, 2008   CANSLIM.net
 

Almost Family, Inc.

 

Ticker Symbol: AFAM (NASDAQ)

Industry Group: Medical-Outpnt/Hm Care

Shares Outstanding:  7,860,000

Price: $24.16 6/04/08 2:36PM  

Day's Volume: 36,600  6/4/2008  2:36PM

Shares in Float:  5,340,000

52 Week High: $25.03 6/4/2008 Jun 3

50-Day Average Volume: 82,300

Up/Down Volume Ratio: 0.8

Pivot Point: $23.22  5/14/08 high plus .10

Pivot Point +5% = Max Buy Price: $24.38

Web Address: http://www.almost-family.com/

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CANSLIM.net Profile: Almost Family, Inc. and its subsidiaries provide home health care services in Florida, Kentucky, Ohio, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Alabama, Indiana, Illinois, and Missouri, the United States. It operates in two segments, Visiting Nurse (VN) and Personal Care (PC). As of December 31, 2007, Almost Family operated 33 Medicare-certified home health agencies with 51 locations and 22 personal care locations. The Louisville, Kentucky based company, formerly known as Caretenders HealthCorp., was founded in 1985 and changed its name to Almost Family, Inc. in 2000. The stock resides in the Medical-Outpnt/Hm Care group which is presently ranked 101st on the 197 Industry Groups list which is outside the much-preferred top quartile of groups, however there are other high-ranked leaders in this group including, Amedisys Inc. (AMED), and US Physical Therapy (USPH), which help to satisfy the L criteria. The number of top-rated funds with an ownership interest has grown from 9 funds in Sept '07 to 11 funds as of March '08, a sign of limited but increasing institutional interest (the I criteria).

What to Look For and What to Look Out For: Look for the stock to continue offer investors a chance to accumulate shares below its maximum buy price ($24.38) on light volume pullbacks. Keep in mind that much of a stock's success depends on the broader market's ability to sustain a meaningful rally, otherwise 3 out of 4 stocks are likely to struggle in the event that the latest rally-attempt fails. It is very important for the stock's pullback to be contained, whereas a violation of its $23.22 pivot point would have the effect of technically negating its latest breakout, raising concerns. Conversely, if the stock finds support near/above its pivot point then begins advancing again, preferably on higher volume, then odds would favor that higher prices will follow.  Confirming gains on above average volume could provide a reasuring "follow through" that would help reaffirm its recent technical buy signal. The stock is currently trading near its maximum buy price, and caution and patience are needed because the market environment (the M criteria) argues against buying stocks until a confirmed rally from the major averages is produced by a sound follow-through day.

Technical Analysis: The stock broke out of a long multi-month base in late May on heavy volume and appeared featured in yellow in the May 29, 2008 CANSLIM.net Mid-Day BreakOuts Report (read here). Its pivot point cited in the report was based upon its 5/14/08 high plus ten cents.  There remains a small amount of resistance, technically, but mostly psychologically, based upon its 2007 (best viewed on a weekly chart) highs in the $26 area which it appears on course to challenge. 

About : Kenneth J. Gruneisen - Passed the CAN SLIMĀ® Master's Exam
Kenneth J. Gruneisen started out as a licensed stockbroker in August 1987, a couple of months prior to the historic stock market crash that took the Dow Jones Industrial Average down -22.6% in a single day. He has published daily fact-based fundamental and technical analysis on high-ranked stocks online for two decades. Through FACTBASEDINVESTING.COM, Kenneth provides educational articles, news, market commentary, and other information regarding proven investment systems that work in good times and bad.


Comments contained in the body of this report are technical opinions only and are not necessarily those of Gruneisen Growth Corp. The material herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable and accurate, however, its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Our firm, employees, and customers may effect transactions, including transactions contrary to any recommendation herein, or have positions in the securities mentioned herein or options with respect thereto. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors and it is not to be deemed an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the purchase or sale of any securities.
You can contact Kenneth J. Gruneisen - Passed the CAN SLIMĀ® Master's Exam at kengruneisen@gmail.com

 
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