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Profile: Ultra Petroleum Corp. is an independent oil and gas company engaged in the development, production, operation, exploration and acquisition of oil and gas properties. The Company's operations are focused primarily in the Green River Basin of southwest Wyoming and Bohai Bay, offshore China.  The company is a member of the highly ranked Oil & Gas – US Exploration & Production group, ranked in the top 5% of the 197 industry groups tracked by IBD for relative performance for the past six months.  Financially, the company has been growing revenues at a strong pace, up +112% to $258 million over the past year, generating a +134% jump in earnings per share to $1.36 for the fiscal year 2004. Its strong earnings history helps it claim the highest possible EPS rank, and it has been a fixture in the IBD 100 list.  In 2005, Wall Street is forecasting earnings to rise an additional 32% to $1.78 per share. The company’s board has approved a 2-for-1 stock split subject to shareholder approval.

What to Look For and Look Out For: One quick caveat - this is not a new name to attentive CANSLIM fans, and it has already managed a solid run that has lasted nearly two years. Some analysts note that late-stage bases can be more failure-prone.  We advise letting the stock's price/volume action dictate your action as there is no way to predict the longevity of this leader’s run.  Additional gains on heavy volume would be a nice reassurance, and progress into new high ground may likely prompt additional buyers and help it build more upward momentum - do not buy if it gets too extended.  Declines on above average volume leading to any technical deterioration of the upward trend would be serious warning flags to watch out for.  A 7-8% stop loss order should be seriously considered if you have any problems with your sell discipline. 

Technical Analysis: Since breaking out on April 28, 2003 from the $10 level (see a 2-year chart), shares of UPL have skyrocketed more than five-fold. The stock has comfortably traded above its steadily rising 200-day moving average (the red line) during its ascent, but pullbacks from time-to-time violated its 50-day moving average line.  Following its January 18th gap up gains on above average volume that lifted it over its 50 DMA, notice how that important short-term average acted like a springboard during the January 31^st and February 7^th sessions - the stock bounced off this key support line giving a sign of institutional demand as it reversed from losses to end each day with gains and near its intraday highs. You might also notice an earlier reversal session on December 8^th, when UPL fell to an intraday low of $43.38 before the bulls wrestled control by session’s end to propel the stock to a gain on above average volume.  Then its December 14th gap up gains came on a whopping 2.3 million shares as it hurtled above its 50 DMA.  It blasted above the pivot point identified above on February 9^th as volume spiked up more than 50%+ above average.  That action could be considered a technical buy signal even before it reached a new 52-week high of $56.49 as trading rose 43%+ above the average daily volume on February 11^th.  It has since been holding its ground, and the small retreat came on light volume, signaling patience by current holders and not a rush to the exits.